Can anything stop GTA 6 taking down Game of the Year 2026? After the Extended Look dropped on Netflix and YouTube, the game's win probability rose from 60% to 72% on the prediction markets.
The constant will-it-won’t-it release drama has subsided as pre-orders go through the roof. Now, traders are weighing in, with the Game Awards just a few months away. The hype, the expectation, the wait: all mean GTA 6 is the hottest ticket for Game Awards traders.
The Extended Look released recently, with a 26-minute preview showcasing some of the incredible graphics, gameplay, and new additions GTA 6 will offer.
However, despite the Extended Look drop and constant media buzz, will the latest Grand Theft Auto game really hit the shelves on November 19, as the Take-Two CEO claims? Or are Kalshi users eyeing up a 2027 launch, leaving Resident Evil: Requiem and Crimson Desert to steal the limelight thiss December?
Last year, Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 surprised many with a leftfield Game of the Year win. That could open the door on the prediction markets to more niche titles in 2026 with bigger ‘Yes’ value.
Key Takeaways:
- The GTA 6 Extended Look dropped on Netflix and YouTube: Rocktar's 26-minute preview garnered millions of views in its first few hours, showcasing graphics, gameplay, and in-game missions.
- GTA 6's November release would make it a Game Awards shoo-in: pre-orders have begun, but can Rockstar meet that November deadline?
- And what if the game is delayed? GTA fans have been left disappointed before. Plus, there’s scope for a Game of the Year 2026 odds hedge bet if GTA 6 doesn’t get released.
- Don’t dismiss the smaller game releases: Control Resonant is just an 8% value pick, but then Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 did spring a massive surprise last year.
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Game of the Year 2026 Odds: The Big Frontrunners
Let’s look at who the prediction markets favor in the race for Game of the Year 2026. Don't forget, for help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Grand Theft Auto 6 | ‘Yes’ 73¢ | 73% chance
- Developer: Rockstar Games
- Release date: November 19, 2026 (TBC)
Buying a 'Yes' contract on GTA 6 minutes before the Extended Look preview would have cost you 63¢. That would have cost 73¢ if you;d waited until the jaw-dropping Extended Look finished.
It was worth the wait.
The GTA VI Extended Look revealed some of the characters, scenarios, and, er, Cliff Richard tracks that players can enjoy when the game drops.
You can interact with NPCs, chill at home, or try out a bunch of side activities including scuba diving and weights. The combat system seems to have improved since the last GTA outing, with better aiming for both the main characters.
Personal relationships also play a key role. You have the option to decided whether Jason and Lucia are attached or not right from the outset. That's the kind of additional details that could play with Game Awards voters.
The Delay Condundrum
In March, you could have backed the ‘Yes’ on GTA 6 winning Game of the Year at just 41¢. However, back in March, there wasn’t the certainty that the game would even be released this year. That meant boomtime on the GTA 6 release date prediction markets if you were quick enough.
The sixth instalment of the Grand Theft Auto series has suffered constant delays. It was slated for a May 2025 release before being postponed by one year.
However, Rockstar Games’ parent company Take-Two came out fighting this spring. CEO Strauss Zelnick was adamant that the November 19, 2026, release date was cast-iron, even saying so in a widely-reported interview.
That sent the ‘Yes’ price on GTA 6 jumping to around 70%. And then in June, Rockstar Games began taking pre-orders.
Of course, that assumes the game will a) still be released in time for Game Awards voting, and b) seal the deal with voters. Realism has kicked in a little, with 'Yes' shares trading slightly down on last month.
However, for buzz and Extended Look anticipation alone, GTA 6 should be a lock.
Resident Evil: Requiem | ‘Yes’ 15¢ | 15% chance
- Developer: Capcom
- Release date: February 27, 2026
A sequel last won Game of the Year in 2024 when Baldur’s Gate 3 took the trophy, and we are heavily tipping GTA 6 to take down the big one in December.
However, could Resident Evil: Requiem be the value pick people aren’t talking about on the prediction sites?
The latest release in the Resident Evil canon doesn’t have delays to worry about. It was released in February, zombie-starved fans having waited five long years since Resident Evil: Village.
The wait was seemingly worth it, with review scores easily nudging the 90-percent mark across the board. The balance of terrifying zombie thrills, great combat mechanics, and a seamless shift between characters have all resonated with players.
Plus, after a few releases that have focused on puzzles, fighting, or horror, the newest game seems to scratch all itches.
Value Picks: Can Anything Follow Clair Obscur: Expedition 33?
Are GTA 6 and Resident Evil: Requiem the huge locks in the Game of the Year odds? Or, like Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 in 2025, can a quirkier game bag the trophy?
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CONTROL: Resonant | ‘Yes' 8¢ | 8% probability
- Developer: Remedy Entertainment
- Release date: September 24, 2026
Remedy Entertainment's action-adventure RPG was announced at last year's Game Awards. However, it's only weeks away from enjoying a release. That's enough to get Kalshi traders excited, with early traders getting their 'Yes' buys in now before the game drops.
Action-adventures do well at the Game Awards, winning three of the last five Game of the Year prizes. CONTROL: Resonant falls into that category and should please fans of 2019's original. 30 hours of guaranteed gameplay and good tech site buzz: what more do you want?
Half-Life 3 | ‘Yes' 1¢ | <1% probability
- Developer: Valve
- Release date: TBC
Let's be clear from the off: there is no Half-Life 3 released or even planned.
Yet.
But that hasn't prevented Half-Life nuts going into meltdown during the recent Summer Game Fest as the new Steam Machine was teased.
The rumor mill on Reddit suggests that Valve could release a "secret game" once the Steam Machine comes out this year. The hope is that it could be Half-Life 3, but then it could also be Counter-Strike 3 or DOTA 3.
All of that is irrelevant on the prediction markets. Half-Life 3 was just 3% a few weeks ago, but jumped to 9% in June off the back of the Steam Machine teaser. That's all the buzz the market needed to lift a speculative Half-Life 3 into third spot in the probability rankings.
It also meant you could have traded out for a quick 6-point profit, with no game, no release date, and absolutely no guarantee of a Game of the Year award.
Crimson Desert | ‘Yes' 4¢ | 3% probability
- Developer: Pearl Abyss
- Release date: March 19, 2026
Open-world adventures like Crimson Desert have a chance at the Game of the Year awards. In fact, Pearl Abyss’s game was second favorite at 24% ahead of Resident Evil: Requiem before the GTA 6 “confirmation” news dropped.
At 2%, Crimson Desert might be worth a ‘Yes’ value play in the Game of the Year 2026 odds list. It has a luscious fantasy theme and combines open-world gaming with puzzles, combat, and characters you actually want to talk to.
However, reports of clunky dialogue and the odd daft puzzle or two may scupper Crimson Desert’s chances.
Additionally, the game tries to cater to all types of players. That could actually count against it with the voters.
Marvel’s Wolverine | ‘Yes’ 2¢ | 2% probability
- Developer: Insomniac Games
- Release date: September 15, 2026
This is the year that Marvel takes back control of pop culture. Right?
Well, the buzz around the return of Spider-Man and The Avengers is certainly heating up the 2026 box office takings prediction markets – so why not the games too?
Insomniac Games are at the helm once again, the brains behind Marvel’s Spider-Man. That was regarded as a game-changer for hero-themed video games, so the hype is real for Marvel’s Wolverine.
The preview buzz suggests that Marvel’s Wolverine is denser and more stylish than the Spider-Man game. Expect lots of close-quarters combat, plus – of course – plenty of X-Men side characters to keep things interesting for MCU fans.
The Game Awards 2026: Lowdown
- WHAT: Voted for by a jury of 100+ journalists and influencers, and the public
- WHEN: Thursday, 10 December, 7:30 p.m. ET
- WHERE: Peacock Theater, Los Angeles
- WHO: Geoff Keighley
- WATCH: Streamed globally
Game of the Year Winners: 2021–2025
| Year | Game of the Year Winner | Game Type(s) |
| 2025 | Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 | Narrative RPG |
| 2024 | Astro Bot | 3D platform, action-adventure |
| 2023 | Baldur's Gate 3 | cRPG (Computer RPG) |
| 2022 | Elden Ring | ARPG (Action Role-Playing Game) |
| 2021 | It Takes Two | Action-adventure, puzzle |
The Hedge Strategy: What if GTA 6 Doesn’t Get Released?
Backing the Game of the Year odds 2026 winner is a great example of how you can hedge your trades on the prediction markets.
Let’s look at the possible scenarios to factor in a game like GTA 6 that may suffer another delay:
- SCENARIO 1: GTA 6 releases on schedule on November 19. It’s released in time for Game of the Year voting, so the ‘Yes’ buy @ 75¢ is the play.
- SCENARIO 2: GTA 6 misses its release date and is ineligible for Game of the Year 2026: You trade ‘No’ ‘Before December 2026’ on the GTA 6 release date market at 14¢.
By trading both scenarios at once, you are hedging your bets. GTA 6 gets released in time and it wins, you win. However, if GTA 6 gets delayed, you still have a chance to win.
There is a caveat to this, to say that you aren’t completely covering all angles for a true arbitrage bet. However, this is a good way to cover some of your exposure.
How to Trade Game of the Year Odds 2026 on Kalshi
You can trade on Game of the Year 2026 in minutes when you open your Kalshi account:
- Ready Player One: Create and fund your new Kalshi account. The process is quick and you can have funds in your account within minutes.
- Find Game of the Year Easter Eggs: Navigate to ENTERTAINMENT > AWARDS to find this market and all other video-game-related prices.
- Unlock Loot: Decide which price you are buying shares at. Other traders will offer shares at a certain price.
- Map Your Progress: You can track your share price live and even see where other traders' money is going. Remember, you can always cash out your position if you want to settle before the 2026 Game Awards take place.
Game of the Year 2026 FAQs
The 2026 Game of the Year is the biggest prize awarded at the annual Game Awards. The best game represents the pinnacle in terms of design and gameplay, game narrative, and overall design.
The 2026 Game of the Year forms the showpiece of the annual Game Awards. Over 100 journalists and content creators vote on the best game of the year. There is also a small public vote that allows fans to submit their choice on the Game Awards website. Game Awards creator, Geoff Keighley, does not vote, nor do video game companies.
The sensible ‘Yes’ trade is on GTA6 sweeping the board at this year’s Game Awards. However, it’s still touch-and-go whether the game fulfils Take-Two CEO Strauss Zelnick’s promise of a November 19 release. You can hedge your bets by betting on a ‘Yes’ for GTA6 to win the award while backing a ‘2027 release’ ‘Yes’ on another market.
The official Game of the Year nominees are announced mid-November. However, precise eligibility dates aren’t announced until the Fall. There then follows a period of voting, with the jury (90%) and public fan vote (10%) determining the winner. Games will need to have been released before the cutoff date to be considered for Game of the Year.
