The Big Brother 28 prediction market is shaping up nicely as the competition enters its eighth week. However, there's still plenty of time to go until a winner is crowned, but Dee Valladares retains pole position.
Mallory Aurichio was only a 5% chance to win Big Brother 28 going into this week's eliminations. That lack of optimism in her chances was well-founded, as she became the latest person to leave the house.
Dee Valladares was crowned Big Brother HoH for Week 7, choosing three rivals to go up for elimination. That sent her price of winning the season soaring, and it's increased further after Aurichio's eviction.
Up for Week 8 Elimination: TBC
Week 7 Elimination: Mallory Aurichio
Use Promo Code COVERS35
Reality TV markets react instantly to whatever’s happening on-screen, which means price jumps happen all the time. While some traders are taking contracts based on early alliance formations, others are relying on whispers they hear on live feeds and social chatter.
Public opinion can swing on as little as a single diary room session, but platforms like Kalshi enable fans to back their intuition with contracts that just might see a profit before the show is over. Here’s what’s been happening on the markets following Week 1.
Big Brother Season 28 Prices: Our Top Five Contenders
| Houseguest | |
Buy 'Yes' | Buy 'No' |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dee Valladares | 22% | 22¢ | 80¢ |
| Rick Devens | 19% | 19¢ | 82¢ |
| Yash Patel | 14% | 14¢ | 87¢ |
| Drew Campbell | 11% | 11¢ | 91¢ |
| Barrett Pfeiffer | 10% | 10¢ | 92¢ |
Key Takeaways:
- Survivor Advantage Holds Strong: Survivor 45 winner Dee Valladares slipped to second place in the prediction market but has regained #1 spot in the table. Fellow Survivor veteran Rick Devens is down to 19%.
- Drew Campbell Still the Value Play: After successfully saving himself from eviction in Week 5, Campbell is on the rise, up another eight points on last week.
- Could Mallory Aurichio's Exit Spark a Backlash?: Aurichio exited partly due to Drew Campbell winning the Block Buster. Could that leave Campbell in danger?
Big Brother Winner 2026: The Remaining Houseguests
This market has sprung into action following the premiere, with over $3.2 million in trading volume stacked up already.
And as we recently saw with the Love Island prediction markets, we can expect that total to rise and rise as the on screen drama heats up.
Like all the most watched markets on Kalshi, this one uses a binary 'Yes' or 'No' format for each contestant. That means that every contract price represents the market’s consensus probability of that outcome occurring.
Week 8 board movements show the market thinks some contestants have far more potential than others. But will traders be proven right?
| Houseguest | |
Buy 'Yes' | Buy 'No' |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dee Valladeres | 22% | 22¢ | 80¢ |
| Rick Devens | 19% | 19¢ | 82¢ |
| Yash Patel | 14% | 14¢ | 87¢ |
| Drew Campbell | 9% | 9¢ | 92¢ |
| Barrett Pfeiffer | 6% | 6¢ | 95¢ |
| Angela Murray | 5% | 6¢ | 95¢ |
| Taylor Brown | 8% | 8¢ | 93¢ |
| LaTrice Verrett | 6% | 6¢ | 95¢ |
| Melody Morris | 5% | 5¢ | 96¢ |
| Haley Thogmartin | 3% | 3¢ | 98¢ |
| ❌ |
1% | 1¢ | -- |
| ❌ |
1% | 1¢ | -- |
| ❌ |
1% | 1¢ | -- |
| ❌ |
1% | 1¢ | -- |
| ❌ |
1% | 1¢ | -- |
| ❌ |
1% | 1¢ | -- |
| ❌ |
1% | 1¢ | -- |
Big Brother Winner Odds: Prediction Market Value Picks
If you’re looking for value on reality TV prediction markets, you need to be able to spot instances where the crowd might have overreacted to a single episode or underpriced a player's long-term capabilities. Here are a few to consider.
Dee Valladares | 'No' 80¢
Betting against the current frontrunner might seem counterintuitive, but buying 'No' contracts on Valladares at 80¢ makes sense given what we know so far.
Historically, Heads of Household in Big Brother (which Dee was - twice) carry an enormous target on their backs for the rest of the season. With an 80% implied probability of not winning, this 'No' position is highly likely to result in a payout.
Dee became HoH yet again in Week 7. Will this increase antagonism and backfire on the market favorite? The contracts will also rise in price very quickly should anything go wrong for Dee in the coming weeks.
Rick Devens | 'Yes' 19¢
This well-liked Survivor veteran is seriously underpriced by the market, which gives him an 18% implied probability of winning this season.
Devens knows how to survive when things aren’t going his way on reality shows. And he’s hugely charismatic, which means he’s likely to win over key players in the house.
Rick’s threat level is high, but a 19¢ price points means there’s little capital at risk for a considerable upside, if he successfully navigates the early phases of the competition. We think he’s got what it takes.
Drew Campbell | 'Yes' 11¢
Despite being a favorite for eviction in early August, Drew Campbell has managed to stay in the competition. His 'Yes' price continues to rise, but it's still relatively low, up eight points on last week and making him the flip opportunity to watch.
Drew entered the game with a lower profile than some (unless you watched RuPaul's Drag Race, in which he was a season winner), but he's now starting to show that potential we've been talking about since the show launched. Winning the Block Buster and saving himself in Week 7 didn't hurt, either.
Campbell’s got a massive risk-to-reward ratio right now. Despite being named a Week 1 have-not, he has quietly integrated into the dominant crossovers alliance.
His price dropped, however, after he received an eviction nomination from Haley Thogmartin, who won the Head of Household (HoH) competition for Week 4.
More Big Brother Prediction Markets to Watch
The overall winner market might be the one traders are paying most attention to, but it’s not the only Big Brother prediction market available right now.
There are now markets for second and third place, along with a weekly elimination market giving great insight into market sentiment around the person most likely to head out of the door next.
The Podium Markets: 2nd & 3rd Place Dynamics
Use Promo Code COVERS35
The runner-up and third place markets both offer an intriguing glimpse into player threat perception versus long-term survivability. Players perceived as big targets often trade higher in placement markets than in outright win markets.
Week 7 Elimination: Aurichio Departs
The highest volume outside of the main winner market can be found on the elimination market, which launches every week. Week 7's market has just resolved, with Mallory Aurichio the latest to leave.
Keep an eye on the new market for Week 8 when it launches next week. We will offer some updated prices and picks as we go.
Use Promo Code COVERS35
Strategy Tips for Trading the Big Brother Season 28 Winner
If you’re considering backing up your Big Brother 28 predictions with real contracts on a platform like Kalshi, you need to know what to look out for when buying and selling on reality TV outcomes. Here are a few factors you’ll definitely want to bring into the equation.
- Live Feed Data: The television broadcast is heavily edited and delayed. True market moves happen in real time as events unfold on the Paramount Plus live feeds, so its these feeds that you’ll need to pay attention to if you want to get ahead on prediction markets.
- Flip Opportunities: Do not feel obligated to hold your contracts until the finale in September. If you buy a contestant’s 'Yes' contracts at 5¢ and they win a crucial Power of Veto, jumping to 25¢ as a result, you have the option to sell immediately and lock in a 400% profit.
- Overreaction Price Swings: The Big Brother fandom is notoriously reactionary. If a player has a bad segment or a minor argument, the market often underprices them. When this happens, traders can buy the dip on players who have proven their knack for strategy but just might be unpopular for a short while.
Studying BB Form: What Can We Learn from the Past 10 Years?
Over the years we've seen Big Brother contestants triumph in a whole range of weird and wonderful ways. Let's take a look back and see which strategies proved the most effective over the past 10 years, and what that could mean for our prediction market picks as Season 28 gets underway.
| Season (Year) | Winner | Jury Vote | Strategy & Trivia |
|
👁️ Season 27 (2025) |
Ashley Hollis |
6-1 |
Law graduate who hid her intelligence behind a glamorous persona and swept the final vote due to superior jury management. |
|
👁️ Season 26 (2024) |
Chelsie Baham |
7-0 |
Made history as the first woman to play a perfect game (never received a single eviction vote and won by a unanimous jury). |
|
👁️ Season 25 (2023) |
Jag Bains |
5-2 |
Evicted 10-0 in week four but saved by a twist, then went on to set the all-time record for single-season competition wins. |
|
👁️ Season 24 (2022) |
Taylor Hale |
8-1 |
Overcame early-season bullying to win both the grand prize and America's Favorite Houseguest after delivering iconic finale speech. |
|
👁️ Season 23 (2021) |
Xavier Prather |
9-0 |
Served as the physical and strategic anchor of The Cookout alliance while successfully hiding that he was a lawyer. |
|
👁️ Season 22 (2020) |
Cody Calafiore |
9-0 |
Dominated the all-stars season from day one, winning major competitions and never once touching the nomination block. |
|
👁️ Season 21 (2019) |
Jackson Michie |
6-3 |
A physical powerhouse who used cutthroat tactics and late-game lies to secure his spot in the final two. |
|
👁️ Season 20 (2018) |
Kaycee Clark |
5-4 |
Tied the record for most veto wins in a single season with five, winning over a bitter jury with her unwavering loyalty. |
|
👁️ Season 19 (2017) |
Josh Martinez |
5-4 |
Played a chaotic, loud game but used his goodbye messages to expose the house mastermind's lies to evicted jurors. |
|
👁️ Season 18 (2016) |
Nicole Franzel |
5-4 |
Used showmances as shields to avoid hitting the nomination block until the final four, becoming the first woman to beat a man in the final two. |
How to Trade Big Brother Season 28 on Kalshi
If you want to turn your reality TV expertise into a trading portfolio, getting started on Kalshi is straightforward. Here’s a step-by-step guide to get you started.
- Account Setup: Sign up on Kalshi and fund your account using a bank transfer, wire, or card payment.
- Navigate: Search for "Big Brother" in the search bar or navigate to the "Culture" tab on the sidebar.
- Execute: Choose your Houseguest, select either a 'Yes' or 'No' contract, enter your desired contract limit price, and click submit.
- Monitor: Track your portfolio in real time and sell your shares whenever you want to secure profits or cut losses before the final vote.
Big Brother Season 28 FAQs
Your selected Houseguest must be officially announced as the season winner on the CBS finale. The market verifies the outcome directly through official network broadcasts and Paramount Plus streaming details. If you hold the correct contracts at final resolution, you will receive a payout of exactly one dollar per share.
Yes, you can freely buy or sell your contract positions at any point before the market officially closes. Traders frequently utilize this flexibility to lock in their profits or mitigate losses when house prices fluctuate. This strategy allows you to manage your capital dynamically throughout the entire season as drama unfolds.
If an active Houseguest is disqualified or decides to voluntarily withdraw before the season finale, their market automatically resolves to 'No'. This specific rule means your active 'Yes' contracts on that particular contestant will lose all their value immediately. Therefore, keeping a close eye on the daily live feeds is critical to avoiding sudden administrative exits.
In the highly rare event that CBS officially declares joint winners, the contract payouts are split evenly. Each winning 'yes' contract will resolve with a payout of one dollar divided by the total number of declared winners. This structure ensures a completely fair distribution of the prize pool based on the final official broadcast.
