The votes have been cast, the time machine has powered down and Big Brother Season 28 has officially come to a close.
Prediction markets were buzzing with interest in who this year’s potential winner might be, with almost $9 million in volume on Kalshi by the time the market closed on October 1.
Big Brother Season 28 Winner Odds
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In the end, it was Survivor veteran Rick Devens who outmaneuvered the competition, sealing a 6–1 jury victory over Taylor Brown to take home the $750,000 grand prize.
We saw this board flip over and over again in the final weeks, but traders started to agree on Rick Devens in the last two days. He was still priced around 50c in the final stages though, so those who chose correctly saw considerable profits once the winner was revealed.
Those who backed Devens much earlier, however, saw the greatest rewards. Let’s look back at how the finale unfolded and how the prediction markets ultimately resolved.
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Key Takeaways:
- The Winner: Rick Devens triumphed over runner-up Taylor Brown in a 6–1 jury vote to take the $750,000 grand prize.
- Market Resolution: Kalshi's 'Yes' contracts for Rick Devens officially resolved as winners, rewarding traders who bought in during his late-season surge.
- Successful Summer: Devens was also voted America's Favorite Houseguest, pocketing an extra $50,000 and bringing his total winnings to $800,000.
- Runner-Up: Taylor Brown secured second place, earning a $75,000 prize after that late-game push.
Big Brother Season 28 Prices: The Final Board
Reality TV markets react instantly to whatever’s happening on-screen, which means price jumps happen all the time. While some traders took contracts based on early alliance formations, others relied on whispers they hear on live feeds and social chatter.
Public opinion can swing on as little as a single diary room session, but platforms like Kalshi enable fans to back their intuition with contracts that just might see a profit before the show is over. Here’s how the board stood at the end of the season.
| Houseguest | |
Buy 'Yes' | Buy 'No' |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rick Devens | 50% | 50¢ | 51¢ |
| Drew Campbell | 39% | 39¢ | 62¢ |
| Taylor Brown | 14% | 14¢ | 87¢ |
Need help understanding Kalshi probabilities? Check out our easy odds calculator.
Big Brother Winner 2026: Market Resolves
Rick turned on longtime ally Drew Campbell (and the prediction market favorite the week before the final) at the last moment, choosing Taylor Brown to take through to the final two. Here’s how the Kalshi board ultimately resolved.
| Houseguest | Final Status | Final Price/Probability | Market Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rick Devens | Winner (1st) | 50¢ – 52¢ | 'Yes' Won |
| Taylor Brown | Runner-Up (2nd) | 14¢ – 19¢ | 'No' Won |
| Drew Campbell | Evicted (3rd) | 33¢ – 39¢ | 'No' Won |
| Dee Valladares | Evicted (4th) | <1¢ | 'No' Won |
Big Brother Season 28: The Winners
Traders who snapped up Rick Devens contracts early on, when the price was as low as 8¢, were the biggest winners of the season.
Even those who bought in at his pre-finale peak of 50¢ doubled their money by the time the winner was named. Those who opted for ‘No’ contracts on Taylor and Drew also saw some profits, but these were nothing compared to what Rick’s early backers raked in.
Big Brother Season 28: The Losers
Drew attracted plenty of attention going into the final, so traders can be forgiven for hanging on to contracts for him. It certainly looked like he had the potential to win in the final days, but reality shows like this one are notoriously hard to predict. In the end, contracts for Drew and Taylor resolved to zero when Rick won the jury vote.
Big Brother Winner Odds: Prediction Market Value Picks
If you’re looking for value on reality TV prediction markets, you need to be able to spot instances where the crowd might have overreacted to a single episode or underpriced a player's long-term capabilities. These were our value picks for the last week of the season.
Drew Campbell | 'Yes' 39¢
Resolved: ❌ Third place, 'No' traders won
Despite being a favorite for eviction several times, Drew Campbell has proven he's got what it takes to stay in the competition. His 'Yes' price rose sharply this week when he won a guaranteed price in the final, which is great news for those who have backed him from the start.
Drew entered the game with a lower profile than some (unless you watched RuPaul's Drag Race, in which he was a season winner), but he's now showing he's got the strategic skills needed to win. He won the Block Buster to save himself in week seven, and now he's done it again with the final four Power of Veto.
Rick Devens | 'Yes' 50¢
Resolved: ✅ Winner, 'Yes' traders won
This well-liked Survivor veteran had been seriously underpriced by the market. We tipped him as a value pick at. the very beginning, when you'd have been able to buy 'Yes' contracts for as little as 8¢. Now, he's up to 50¢ and climbing.
Devens knows how to survive when things aren’t going his way on reality shows. And he’s hugely charismatic, which means he’s likely to win over key players in the house.
Rick’s threat level is high right now, but a 50¢ price point mean there's still a decent risk-to-reward ratio on this one. Keep an eye on him. We think he’s got what it takes.
Dee Valladares | 'No' 75¢
Resolved: ✅ Evicted September 24, 'No' traders won
Dee Valladares has been on and off favorite since the beginning, but we recommended opting for 'No' contracts instead of following the crowd here. And that 'No' price has since risen right up to 75¢, meaning some traders have had a great flip opportunity already.
Historically, Heads of Household in Big Brother (which Dee was twice) carry an enormous target on their backs for the rest of the season. The market currently gives Dee a 72% chance of not winning, and she's in danger tonight. In our opinion, this 'No' position is likely to result in a payout.
Big Brother Houseguest Eliminations: The Season So Far
Weekly eliminations continue to cause huge price swings in all the Big Brother prediction markets, so be prepared to act quickly as Thursday approaches and that elimination day looms.
Here’s a look at the houseguests named Head of Household each week, as well as those nominated for eviction and ultimately eliminated.
| Week | Head of Household | Final Nominees | Evicted Houseguest |
| Week 1 | Dee Valladares | Taylor, Ashley, Yash | ❌ Ashley Trail (Evicted 10-2) |
| Week 2 | Rick Devens | Jason, Rome | ❌ Rome Seymour (Evicted 12-1) |
| Week 3 | Yash Patel | Jason, Melody | ❌ Jason De Puy (Evicted 11-0) |
| Week 4 | Angela Murray | Lyric, Barrett | ❌ Lyric Medeiros (Evicted 9-1) |
| Week 5 | Rick Devens | Barrett, Chuk | ❌ Chuk Anyanwu (Evicted 8-1) |
| Week 6 | Yash Patel | Angela, Haley, Kamu | ❌ Kamu Kirk (Evicted 6-2) |
| Week 7 (Double Eviction) | Barrett Pfeiffer | Angela, Haley, Mallory |
❌ Mallory Aurichio (Evicted 5-2) ❌ Haley Thogmartin (Eliminated) |
| Week 8 | Drew Campbell | LaTrice, Taylor, Devens | ❌ LaTrice Verrett (Evicted 4-2) |
| Week 9 | Barrett Pfeiffer | Angela, Dee | ❌ Angela Murray (Evicted 3-2) |
| Week 10 (Double Eviction) | Taylor Brown | Barrett, Yash |
❌ Barrett Pfeiffer (Evicted 4-0), ❌ Yash Patel (Evicted 3-0) |
| Week 11 | Dee Valladares | Melody, Devens | ❌ Melody Morris (Evicted 2-0) |
| Week 12 | Taylor Brown | Dee, Devens | ❌ Dee Valladares (Evicted 1-0) |
More Big Brother Prediction Markets to Watch
The overall winner market might be the one traders are paying most attention to, but it’s not the only Big Brother prediction market available right now.
There are now markets for second and third place, along with a weekly elimination market giving great insight into market sentiment around the person most likely to head out of the door next.
The Big Brother Podium Markets: Second and Third Place
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The runner-up and third place markets both offer an intriguing glimpse into player threat perception versus long-term survivability. Players perceived as big targets often trade higher in placement markets than in outright win markets.
Finale Night Elimination Market
The highest volume outside of the main winner market can be found on the elimination market, which launches every week. The focus is now on the last elimination, which takes place on finale night.
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Strategy Tips for Trading the Big Brother Season 28 Winner
If you’re considering backing up your Big Brother 28 predictions with real contracts on a platform like Kalshi, you need to know what to look out for when buying and selling on reality TV outcomes. Here are a few factors you’ll definitely want to bring into the equation.
- Live Feed Data: The television broadcast is heavily edited and delayed. True market moves happen in real time as events unfold on the Paramount Plus live feeds, so its these feeds that you’ll need to pay attention to if you want to get ahead on prediction markets.
- Flip Opportunities: Do not feel obligated to hold your contracts until the finale in September. If you buy a contestant’s 'Yes' contracts at 5¢ and they win a crucial Power of Veto, jumping to 25¢ as a result, you have the option to sell immediately and lock in a 400% profit.
- Overreaction Price Swings: The Big Brother fandom is notoriously reactionary. If a player has a bad segment or a minor argument, the market often underprices them. When this happens, traders can buy the dip on players who have proven their knack for strategy but just might be unpopular for a short while.
Studying BB Form: What Can We Learn from the Past 10 Years?
Over the years we've seen Big Brother contestants triumph in a whole range of weird and wonderful ways. Let's take a look back and see which strategies proved the most effective over the past 10 years, and what that could mean for our prediction market picks as Season 28 gets underway.
| Season (Year) | Winner | Jury Vote | Strategy & Trivia |
|
👁️ Season 27 (2025) |
Ashley Hollis |
6-1 |
Law graduate who hid her intelligence behind a glamorous persona and swept the final vote due to superior jury management. |
|
👁️ Season 26 (2024) |
Chelsie Baham |
7-0 |
Made history as the first woman to play a perfect game (never received a single eviction vote and won by a unanimous jury). |
|
👁️ Season 25 (2023) |
Jag Bains |
5-2 |
Evicted 10-0 in week four but saved by a twist, then went on to set the all-time record for single-season competition wins. |
|
👁️ Season 24 (2022) |
Taylor Hale |
8-1 |
Overcame early-season bullying to win both the grand prize and America's Favorite Houseguest after delivering iconic finale speech. |
|
👁️ Season 23 (2021) |
Xavier Prather |
9-0 |
Served as the physical and strategic anchor of The Cookout alliance while successfully hiding that he was a lawyer. |
|
👁️ Season 22 (2020) |
Cody Calafiore |
9-0 |
Dominated the all-stars season from day one, winning major competitions and never once touching the nomination block. |
|
👁️ Season 21 (2019) |
Jackson Michie |
6-3 |
A physical powerhouse who used cutthroat tactics and late-game lies to secure his spot in the final two. |
|
👁️ Season 20 (2018) |
Kaycee Clark |
5-4 |
Tied the record for most veto wins in a single season with five, winning over a bitter jury with her unwavering loyalty. |
|
👁️ Season 19 (2017) |
Josh Martinez |
5-4 |
Played a chaotic, loud game but used his goodbye messages to expose the house mastermind's lies to evicted jurors. |
|
👁️ Season 18 (2016) |
Nicole Franzel |
5-4 |
Used showmances as shields to avoid hitting the nomination block until the final four, becoming the first woman to beat a man in the final two. |
How to Trade Big Brother Season 28 on Kalshi
If you want to turn your reality TV expertise into a trading portfolio, getting started on Kalshi is straightforward. Here’s a step-by-step guide to get you started.
- Account Setup: Sign up on Kalshi and fund your account using a bank transfer, wire, or card payment.
- Navigate: Search for "Big Brother" in the search bar or navigate to the "Culture" tab on the sidebar.
- Execute: Choose your Houseguest, select either a 'Yes' or 'No' contract, enter your desired contract limit price, and click submit.
- Monitor: Track your portfolio in real time and sell your shares whenever you want to secure profits or cut losses before the final vote.
Big Brother Season 28 FAQs
Your selected Houseguest must be officially announced as the season winner on the CBS finale. The market verifies the outcome directly through official network broadcasts and Paramount Plus streaming details. If you hold the correct contracts at final resolution, you will receive a payout of exactly one dollar per share.
Yes, you can freely buy or sell your contract positions at any point before the market officially closes. Traders frequently utilize this flexibility to lock in their profits or mitigate losses when house prices fluctuate. This strategy allows you to manage your capital dynamically throughout the entire season as drama unfolds.
If an active Houseguest is disqualified or decides to voluntarily withdraw before the season finale, their market automatically resolves to 'No'. This specific rule means your active 'Yes' contracts on that particular contestant will lose all their value immediately. Therefore, keeping a close eye on the daily live feeds is critical to avoiding sudden administrative exits.
In the highly rare event that CBS officially declares joint winners, the contract payouts are split evenly. Each winning 'yes' contract will resolve with a payout of one dollar divided by the total number of declared winners. This structure ensures a completely fair distribution of the prize pool based on the final official broadcast.
