The search for the next James Bond is on, and soon we’ll find out who’s playing the new Bond girl in what’s set to be a complete reboot of the franchise we know and love. But there’s one other question that’s been playing on our minds, and that’s which of the world’s best-loved performers will be belting out the next James Bond song.
The question has already caught the attention of traders on prediction markets like Kalshi, with prices rapidly rising and falling for the likes of Olivia Dean, Oasis, Raye, Lana del Rey and Harry Styles.
Our current frontunner is none other than Olivia Dean, who has had a massive year with a triple MOBO award win, four BRIT awards and a Grammy for Best New Artist. But will that success give her the edge over some of the more established acts on the board?
Key Takeaways:
- Olivia Dean is frontrunner, following her 2026 BRIT, Grammy and MOBO awards success.
- Trading at a low 8¢, Harry Styles is an undervalued "predictable cultural moment," with the massive commercial scale Bond producers crave.
- Lana Del Rey recently released the theme for the 007 First Light video game, but traders are split on whether she’ll also go on to perform the movie theme.
Use Promo Code COVERS
Traders are now putting money behind their best guesses. Here’s a breakdown of the board as it stands, and our analysis of where the potential value lies.
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
The Frontrunners: James Bond Song Market Breakdown
Use Promo Code COVERS
Olivia Dean | 'Yes' 45¢ | 'No' 56¢
Olivia Dean is at the top of the board right now, and given her success over the past few months it’s easy to see why traders are backing her. It’s not just the awards she’s won recently, though. Dean has the kind of soulful, timeless sound that would work perfectly for a Bond theme. She's also one of the favorites on the Coachella prediction markets.
Raye | 'Yes' 25¢ | 'No' 82¢
Another performer who has been smashing records in 2026 is Raye. She’s a fan favorite for this one, and her unique voice would make her a great fit for the 007 soundtrack. Raye is well known for her ability to blend jazz, soul and pop seamlessly, and she’s publicly expressed interest in recording the track.
Lana Del Rey | 'Yes' 19¢ | 'No' 83¢
Lana Del Rey just released First Light, the theme for the new 007 First Light video game. This proves she can work with Bond composers and has the kind of sound they’re looking for. However, some believe this could actually lower her chances for the main film, as producers rarely use the same artist for both a game and a feature film.
Dua Lipa | 'Yes' 25¢ | 'No' 84¢
Dua Lipa is a global superstar who could easily voice the Bond theme tune, but it’s not just her musical ability that has got fans talking about why it might be her. There’s also the fact that she’s engaged to Callum Turner, an actor who happens to be one of the favorites in the race to play James Bond in the new movie.
Lorde | 'Yes' 10¢ | 'No' 99¢
Lorde is well known for the kind of atmospheric music that defined the Daniel Craig era. And she’s proven that she can continue to dominate the charts while maintaining that edgy and mysterious persona. She’s a good value long shot at her current price, because it’s entirely possible that the film's director, Denis Villeneuve, could be looking to go in a moodier, more avant-garde direction for the new theme.
James Bond Theme Odds: Best Value Picks
Prediction markets are about much more than just picking a winner. To make the most of the best opportunities on these markets, you need to be able to spot mispriced options on the board.
For markets like this, it often pays to back the long shots, because some of these names are just a positive news story away from a dramatic increase in price (and a golden opportunity for traders). If that happens after you pick up ‘Yes’ contracts at a rock bottom price, you can sell your position early and profit well ahead of an official announcement.
Best Value 'Yes': Harry Styles | 8¢
Harry Styles is one of the biggest pop stars on the planet, and he’s just released another record-breaking album in the form of Kiss All The Time. Disco, Occasionally. Despite this, he’s priced at just 8¢.
If producers go with a male lead for the first time since Sam Smith, Harry’s mix of Bowie-esque rock and mainstream appeal make a great fit for our next James Bond song. The market could well be underestimating him.
Best Value 'Yes': Lana Del Rey | 19¢
Lana Del Rey has just been named as the performer of choice for the James Bond video game, but her ‘Yes’ price has remained relatively low. If the game track, First Light, becomes a massive fit, it wouldn’t be entirely unrealistic to expect producers to ask her to record the movie theme tune too.
Best Value 'No': Olivia Dean | 56¢
Olivia Dean is rarely out of the headlines at the moment, but does she have the level of stardom that Bond producers typically look for? In the past, producers have often opted for more established acts, and that could go against Olivia. The current 56¢ ‘No’ on her is great value, as you’re essentially backing any of the other names of the board at a coin-flip price.
Celebrity Publicist: Styles isn’t just releasing music “he's releasing moments that really resonate”
Traders will be looking at everything from vocal styles to a star’s level of fame, but celebrity publicist Tracy Lamourie suggests that one of our long shots, Harry Styles, could be a more predictable winner than market sentiment currently suggests.
"Harry Styles is different from other musicians right now in the industry because he has become much more than a pop star, it's more like a major cultural story.”
Founder and Managing Director of Lamourie Media Tracy Lamourie notes that from a business perspective, Styles offers a level of certainty that Bond producers crave.
“He's not just releasing music, its like he's releasing moments that really resonate with a particular fan based and that fan base is huge, loyal and listening."
Styles is fully capable of creating that “predictable cultural moment,” that producers will be looking for for the reboot of Bond, which is particularly important given the fact that we’ll be getting a brand new Bond and Bond girl this year.
“It's like a system now, not just an artist, in how reliably it delivers numbers,” Lamourie explains.
Use Promo Code COVERS
How to Use Prediction Markets to Bet on the next James Bond Song
Unlike traditional sportsbooks where you bet against a house, prediction markets like Kalshi provide a federally regulated exchange where you can trade directly with other people. Here’s how it works for a market like the next James Bond theme.
Understanding the Asset: Event Contracts
On Kalshi, you aren't betting in the traditional sense, you’re trading event contracts. Every contract is a binary ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ question. The price of a contract always ranges between 1¢ and 99¢. If the event happens (e.g., Raye is announced as the next James Bond theme tune performer), every 'Yes' contract is worth $1. If it doesn't, it’s worth nothing.
Market Dynamics: Trading vs. Holding
The most important feature of Kalshi is that you don't have to wait for the movie to come out and the theme tune performer to be announced to make money on markets like this. You can also profit from prices rises well ahead of the announcement.
If you bought Lana Del Rey at 19¢ and the following day, a photo of her in a studio with the Bond producers begins to circulate, her ‘Yes’ price could easily jump over 60¢. At this point, you have the option to sell immediately and profit from the price rise, or hold tight to see if she is named to get the maximum $1.00 per contract.
Order Books and Limit Orders
Kalshi uses an order book system. You can place a market order to buy at the current price, or a limit order to say, "I only want to buy Olivia Dean if her price drops to 40¢." Do this, and your order will then remain open until someone is willing to sell to you at that price. This feature also allows you to see the market depth, and work out exactly how many people are willing to buy or sell at a specific price.
James Bond Prediction Market FAQs
Yes. Kalshi is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a Designated Contract Market. It is a legal, transparent way for U.S. residents to trade on the outcome of real-world events.
No. If you buy a contract for 25¢, that is the maximum you can lose. There is no margin or debt involved in these trades.
Each market has specific terms detailing how it will resolve. These are found in the market rules section. For this market, listed sources include those direct from performers, official production company or studio releasing song, official credits of the release, the Recording Industry Association of America, Billboard, Rolling Stone, Variety, The Hollywood Reporter, Deadline, The New York Times, the Associated Press, Bloomberg News, Reuters, and official websites or social media accounts of the production.
If the specific event described in the contract does not happen before the expiration date listed on Kalshi, the 'No' contracts typically pay out $1.00, and 'Yes' pays $0.00. However, this can differ from market to market, so check the rules tab on the specific contract you’re interested in before trading to make sure.
The difference represents the gap between the highest price a buyer is willing to pay and the lowest price a seller is willing to accept. In highly active markets, this gap is usually only 1¢ or 2¢.
Absolutely. As long as there is liquidity (other people willing to buy from you), you can sell your 'Yes' or 'No' positions at any time before the market officially closes.
Once a market resolves and your contracts pay out $1, the funds are added to your Kalshi balance. You can then withdraw them to your linked bank account via ACH or wire transfer. This usually takes between one and three business days.
