A new year means another 12 months of unmissable film releases, from big budget blockbusters and Hollywood epics to a certain sequel we’re been patiently waiting for for almost seven years.
Yes, we’re excited about Toy Story 5. Nothing wrong with that.
The question is: which of this year’s most anticipated titles will outshine the others to become the top grossing movie of 2026? And which films currently offer the best value on the prediction markets?
Woody, Buzz and co. are certain to win over viewers once again, but at present they look less likely to rake in the kind of profits needed to top this list. For that, it seems a few superpowers might be needed. You know, the kind of powers possessed by someone like… Spider-Man?
We’ve analyzed the prediction markets to see which films are piquing bettors’ curiosity right now, and which titles have the potential to cause an upset before the year is out.
Here’s how things stand at the moment. But be aware: there’s a long time to go before another New Year rolls around, and we can expect plenty of movement in this market as the months go by.
Prediction Markets: Top Grossing Movie of 2026
| Title | Chance | Yes |
|---|---|---|
| 🕷️ Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 37% | 37¢ |
| 🍄 The Super Mario Galaxy Movie | 34% | 34¢ |
| 💥 Avengers: Doomsday | 12% | 12¢ |
| 🐸 Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu | 6% | 6¢ |
| 🤠 Toy Story 5 | 6% | 6¢ |
Data provided by Polymarket - accurate as of 6 January
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🕷️ Spider-Man: Brand New Day | Probability 37% | Yes 37¢
Spidey will be back on the big screen this summer, and if prediction markets are correct, the latest Marvel masterpiece is set to be this year’s definitive blockbuster.
Co-produced by Columbia Pictures and Marvel Studios, the follow-up to No Way Home follows Peter Parker’s journey as he rediscovers his purpose beyond fame.
No Way Home remains one of the highest grossing movies ever seen. By mid-2022, the title had surpassed the $2 billion barrier, which is why the next installment in the story has already emerged as a favorite in the race to become the box office success of 2026.
🍄 The Super Mario Galaxy Movie | Probability 34% | Yes 34¢
If there’s one character that could topple our favourite web-slinger from the no.1 spot, it’s the world’s most famous plumber. Mushroom Kingdom’s finest are back in action this April, with the release of a new movie based on the 2007 game of the same name.
The third Super Mario Bros. movie follows a live-action film released in 1993 and the smash hit of 2023: The Super Mario Bros. Movie. The latter grossed over $1.36 billion worldwide. While that’s nowhere near the amount made by No Way Home, it was more than enough to make it the most profitable video game movie ever seen.
Can this year’s Super Mario movie go even further? Current markets suggest it’s in with a shot.
💥 Avengers: Doomsday | Probability 11% | Yes 12¢
We’ve still got a while to wait for this one, but Marvel Comics has promised another huge hit before the year is out. The Avengers will be back on the big screen this December.
Details on the next Avengers film remain scant at present, but Tom Hiddleston, who returns as Loki, has said it’ll be “surprising,” with a story that’s “never been done before.”
The last major Avengers film, Avengers: Endgame made almost $2.8 billion and went on to become the highest-grossing movie of all time, so this movie is expected to do incredibly well. But its release could come too late in the year to challenge Spider-Man or Mario.
🐸 Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu | Probability 6% | Yes 6¢
Mandalorian bounty hunter Din Djarin and his young apprentice Grogu take on the remaining Imperial warlords at cinemas this May.
This feature film is a follow-up to the Disney+ series, which make things complicated when it comes to predicting its box office success.
Some commentators are hugely optimistic about the movie’s chances, suggesting it could make over $1 billion on release. But its connection to the series might make it less of a cinematic event than previous movies.
It all hinges on how well marketed the film is as we head towards its release, and how it’s received in those critical first days.
🤠 Toy Story 5 | Probability 6% | Yes 7¢
A new threat to playtime is incoming. This June, Woody, Buzz, Jessie and the gang are set to be introduced to technology for the first time, as they come face to face with Lilypad.
The story follows the traditional toys’ fight for the attention of Bonnie, with Tom Hanks (Woody), Tim Allen (Buzz), Joan Cusack (Jessie) and Tony Hale (Forky) all back as the voices of Pixar’s best characters (ever!).
The Toy Story film franchise is one of Pixar’s most popular and most successful. Overall, it’s grossed well over $3 billion. Both Toy Story 3 and Toy Story 4 made over $1 billion individually. Given the fact that Toy Story 3 was released back in 2010, that’s a considerable feat.
Currently, the price of a yes for Toy Story 5 remains relatively low, at 7¢. But this is a movie with serious potential. It’s one to watch in this market.
