Eurovision 2026 is over, with Bulgaria storming to victory with the catchy Bangaranga.
For savvy prediction market traders, Bulgaria’s 6% was like a red rag to the value bull. Plus, you could have traded out halfway through the evening to secure a profit.
Elsewhere, Israel justified our pre-Eurovision pick not to win the televote. But a speculative trade on the United Kingdom was a miss.
We look at the big winners on the night, and share a few tips on how you should bet the prediction markets for Eurovision 2027.
Key Takeaways
- Bulgaria was the big winner for traders: Dara’s Bangaranga was just 6% before the floor-filler was televised.
- Israel failed on the televote: The ‘No’ on an Israeli public clean sweep was the right bet.
- The UK failed to impress. Again: Look Mum No Computer came bottom with one point. A strong ‘No’ for the future, if you can find backers.
- Australia has the formula just right: Delta Goodrem had a mix of great vocals, song choice, and stage presence. The Aussies have finally cracked Eurovision.
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Eurovision 2026 Winners: All the Price Moves
Eurovision 2026 Results: Top 6
| Position | Country | Points |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | 🇧🇬 Bulgaria | 516 |
| #2 | 🇮🇱 Israel | 343 |
| #3 | 🇷🇴 Romania | 296 |
| #4 | 🇦🇺 Australia | 287 |
| #5 | 🇮🇹 Italy | 281 |
| #6 | 🇫🇮 Finland | 279 |
Eurovision 2026: How the Favorites Fared
Finland was hot favorite on the prediction markets, but how did they fare versus the floorfillers?
🇫🇮 Finland | ‘Yes’ 56¢ | 56% chance
Finished: 6th
Finland’s Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkonnen were clear favorites on the prediction markets for weeks up until the start of Eurovision.
Their mix of sexy stage presence, a decent song, and (of course) a violin should have seen them do better.
Ultimately, Finland fell short, finishing sixth on 279 points. Their televote score was well below even that of Ukraine, who finished in ninth.
🇦🇺 Australia | ‘Yes’ 15¢ | 15% chance
Finished: 4th
Former soap star, Delta Goodrem, was the big mover on the odds charts for Eurovision 2026. Goodrem made a stunning appearance at the second semifinal wih Eclipse. She's female, it was a power ballad, and Australians love Eurovision.
Interestingly, Australia was just a 4.4% a few days before the event, but the price jump meant you should have taken the value.
It would have been a first Eurovision win for Australia if Delta had delivered on the night. Don;t bet against a bigger performance from the Aussies next year.
🇳🇴 Norway | ‘Yes’ 1¢ | 1% chance
Norway created a lot of the social media buzz before the Eurovision final on Saturday. Jonas Lovv had the moves and the song, and was even asked by producers to tone down his act.
Ultimately, Norway lost a lot of momentum when the jury stopped scoring them. Jonas Lovv ended the night on 134 points, just 19 of which came from the public.
However, at 1¢, you could have bought and sold back at 15¢ when his post-act attention was at its highest.
How the Eurovision 2026 Value Picks Fared
🇬🇷 Greece | ‘Yes’ 8¢ | 8% chance
Resolved: 10th
Greece was one of the big favorites prior to Saturday’s final. The Greeks traded around 18¢ following their performance. That was the right time to sell, however, after the jury awarded the Greeks just 73 points.
A good televote of 147 points helped Greece to 10th in the scoring table. But by then the smart investors would have been long gone.
🇫🇷 France | ‘Yes’ 5¢ | 5% chance
Resolved: 11th
France is one of the ‘Big Five’ countries in Eurovision, though that hasn’t always translated to results. The French haven’t won Eurovision since the 1970s, but they came mightily close in 2021 when Barbara Pravi finished 2nd.
The French-American singer Monroe won the Prodiges reality show in her home country. Plus, solo singers have tended to outperform groups in recent Eurovision contests. And like Finland, Monroe’s Regarde! had a lot of online engagement before the final.
The singer’s age (Monroe is just 17), coupled with an excellent operatic performance in the final, was enough to pique voters’ interest.
However, an early slot in the performance line-up may have ruined France’s chance. The public awarded France just 14 points, the worst televote score in the top 15 countries.
🇬🇧 United Kingdom | ‘Yes’ 1¢ | 1% chance
Resolved: Last place
Forget the UK’s excellent Eurovision record and cultural prowess in pop music: the United Kingdom failed miserably this year.
The affable Look Mum No Computer has a successful YouTube channel where he showcases his skills making gadgets and keyboards.
However, even a good social media presence couldn’t help the UK this year.
Look Mum No Computer finished stone-cold last this year, garnering just one point from the jury, and nul points from the public.
Perhaps the wider Eurovision public is sceptical about the UK’s “passion” for Eurovision, or perhaps the song was just too wacky. Ultimately, Ein, Zwei, Drei just didn’t connect with anyone.
🇮🇱 Israel for largest televote | ‘No’ 51¢ | 51% chance
Resolved: 'No'
Israel’s inclusion in Eurovision 2026 had caused several countries to boycott the competition in protest over the war in Gaza.
However, as in 2025, that sentiment didn’t really affect the public televote, with Israel’s Noam Bettan finishing runner-up.
It was a close-run thing for Israel. It scored a mediocre 123 in the jury vote, before garnering 220 points in the public vote. That was the third-highest public score of the night.
There were audible boos for Israel inside the Wiener Stadhalle. However, Noah Bettan’s song was just very good. By itself, it probably deserved at least a top five finish.
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The Eurovision 2026 Process: How the Scoring Works
Following two semi-finals, the final 25 countries battled it out on May 16 for the Eurovision 2026 crown. There were two votes on the night: the jury vote and the public televote.
Juries awarded points on a sliding scale, down from 12 (“douze points”) to 1. In the good old days, the total Eurovision Song Contest scores were calculated this way. Points were awarded on vocal capacity, stage performance, and song composition.
The televote ups the ante as it included votes from TV viewers. These televote scores were added to the jury vote for an overall total.
The televote involves viewers awarding scores to countries via SMS. They vote for their favorite 10 countries, with scores combined with the jury votes.
In recent years, the televote has hugely affected the outcome of Eurovision. Just because the jury has, say, Germany in pole position, the television viewers often have the final say.
Eurovision 2026: Key Details
| Event | Eurovision 2026 |
|---|---|
| Location | Wiener Stadhalle, Vienna, Austria |
| When | May 16, 2026 |
| Broadcast on: | Peacock |
| Outcome verified by: | BBC, New York Times |
| Previous winner: | Austria |
Buy & Sell: How Bulgaria’s 2026 Win Rewarded Live Trading
Bulgaria was the big winner at Eurovision 2026, but you could have traded out long before the final scores were counted. Here’s how the evening went for Dara’s Bangaranga:
- 8 p.m. Bulgaria starts the evening at 6¢: Dara’s Bangaranga started the evening as just another Euro techno floor-filler. Similar songs have fallen by the wayside in previous years.
- 9.30 p.m. A late performance keeps the catchy chorus in the voters’ minds: Bulgaria’s ‘Yes’ starts ticking up to 11¢ before the jury votes. You decide to grab a piece of the action and buy the ‘Yes’ at Kalshi.
- 10.15 p.m. After 11 jury votes, it’s obvious Bulgaria is gaining traction: Dara’s ‘Yes’ trades at 46%. Do you bail?
- 11 p.m. After all jury votes, Bulgaria was a 65% chance to win: however, the public televote has the power to swing things massively. Here, you could either sell your shares and lock in a near 60¢ profit per share. Alternatively, a hedge buy on Israel or Australia was an equally safe move.
- 11.30 p.m. Israel is leading with just Bulgaria’s televote left: If you haven’t sold now, this is the perfect time to do it.
Sensible Tips for Finding Eurovision Value
Looking to stay ahead of the pack on Eurovision night? Here are some ways you could have won in 2026, and should look to trade in next year’s contest.
- Before Eurovision – lock in a profit after the semi-finals: The two semi-finals cut the field down to 25, and you’ll know if any fancied countries have missed out. This is the time to lock in a win before the final.
- During Eurovision: Prediction markets will shift significantly during the final as fans go online to comment on songs after they’re performed. Performers going on early in the final may artificially inflate prices, so this is a good time to sell.
- Wait Until the Late Acts: On a long night, early performers are sometimes forgotten by viewers. Consider holding on until all acts have had their shot. Remember, prices will be inflated for those early acts, but the televote can favor performers who stay in the memory.
How to Trade Eurovision Odds on Kalshi
Here’s a quick guide to taking a position on Eurovision 2026 if you’re new to Kalshi:
- Account Setup: Create and fund your new Kalshi account. The sign-up process only takes a few minutes.
- Navigate: Search for “Eurovision Winner 2027?” or “Eurovision: who will win the televote?” under the Entertainment tab.
- Execute: Place an order by buying ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ for your chosen country.
- Monitor: Remember, you can sell your position if the sentiment shifts. Public opinion and prices change multiple times during Eurovision. Pay attention, always be watching, and don't be afraid to swap out.
Eurovision 2026 Odds FAQs
The Eurovision 2026 winner market was resolved after the jury vote and public televote had both been completed, and the scores tallied. The country with the most points from both sets of votes won, and the ‘Yes' shares paid out at $1. If a country didn’t win Eurovision, the ‘No’ shares won, meaning you could sell your position to take advantage of the poorer entries.
Absolutely. Eurovision prediction markets are volatile as acts perform live and public sentiment changes in a second. The beauty of prediction markets is that you can trade in and out of your Eurovision position at any time. For example, you can sell Finland at 70¢ if you bought them days earlier at 35¢ and bank a profit before the competition finishes.
A ‘Yes’ contract at, say, 37¢ equates to a 37% chance that a country will win Eurovision. This reflects the implied probability of that win happening, just like an online bookmaker. However, Eurovision odds are more attuned to how countries perform on the night as public opinion moves markets. Therefore, you can gauge the public mood to find the value plays.
Absolutely. Forums like Reddit gauge and track social engagement with performers as they are announced and then perform. You can also read reports from rehearsal periods that usually take place a few weeks before Eurovision hits the stage. Do your research early and get ahead of the pack by gathering news on singers with a strong vocal or stage presence.
