UFC Fight Night 176: Best undercard picks and predictions

May 26, 2020 |
UFC Fight Night 176: Best undercard picks and predictions
Blagoy Ivanov is a slight underdog for his fight against Augusto Sakai at UFC Fight Night 176.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports
Blagoy Ivanov is a slight underdog for his fight against Augusto Sakai at UFC Fight Night 176.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

UFC betting returns to Las Vegas with UFC Fight Night on Saturday, May 30. In addition to the main event, MMA bettors will have a host of other fights to dig into, including a co-main event matchup between Blagoy Ivanov and Augusto Sakai, as well as a women's flyweight battle between Mackenzie Dern and Hannah Cifers. 

We break down the UFC odds for the top undercard fights on Saturday night and give our best UFC Fight Night betting picks and predictions. 

Blagoy Ivanov vs Augusto Sakai UFC Fight Night betting odds

UFC Fight Night Odds Blagoy Ivanov Augusto Sakai
Win outright -104 -112
Win via KO/TKO +500 +320
Win via points +240 +220
Win via submission +750 +2,800
Draw +5,000 +5,000

Blagoy Ivanov vs Augusto Sakai betting preview

Ivanov first earned acclaim after defeating MMA legend Fedor Emelianko in the 2008 World Sambo Championship as a fresh-faced 22 year old. The former WSOF Heavyweight Champion has split his last four fights, but losing to heavyweight contenders Junior Dos Santos and Derrick Lewis is nothing for him to hang his head over. Each of his last five fights have gone the distance.

Sakai suffered a split-decision loss to Cheick Kongo in Bellator in May of 2017 and has since reeled off five straight victories. His last two wins were against big names on the downswing of their careers in Marcin Tybura and Andrei Arlovski.

Blagoy Ivanov vs Augusto Sakai Tale of the Tape

Blagoy Ivanov   Augusto Sakai
33 Age 29
5-foot-11 Height 6-foot-3
250 lbs Weight 265 lbs
73 inches Reach 77 inches
18-3 (6 KOs) Record 14-1-1 (11 KOs)

Blagoy Ivanov vs Augusto Sakai predictions and betting picks

PREDICTION: Sakai to win by KO/TKO +320 - Ivanov isn't exactly a physical speciman. Truth be told, he kind of looks like that guy downing ten pints at the pub who tells everyone about how he used to be an athlete while they nod and smile.

That said, Ivanov can absolutely take a beating which isn't surprising when you consider that in 2013 he returned to the octagon within months of coming out of a coma after being stabbed by a group of gangsters. 

He might have to withstand a beating from Sakai on Saturday night. The Brazilian has knocked out his opponent in 11 of his 14 wins (including four of his last five) and has a significantly better strike rate than Ivanov. With Sakai having a 15-pound and 4-inch reach advantage we like him to win with a KO. 

 

Mackenzie Dern vs Hannah Cifers UFC Fight Night betting odds

UFC Fight Night Odds Mackenzie Dern Hannah Cifers
Win outright -390 +310
Win via KO/TKO +550 +1,100
Win via points +260 +750
Win via submission +100 +2,600
Draw +5,000 +5,000

Mackenzie Dern vs Hannah Cifers betting preview

This fight should be an interesting one despite the lopsided odds. Both fighters are coming off decisive losses, with Dern suffering the first loss of her career in a unanimous decision to Amanda Rebas after returning from maternity leave, while Cifers was absolutely pounded by Angela Hill (who once again proved how devastating she can be).

Dern is a former BJJ World Champion and has yet to win a fight by KO or TKO, forcing her opponent to submit in four of her previous six victories. Cifers prefers to stand up and has a much better strike rate than Dern but has a tendency to leave herself open on defense.

Mackenzie Dern vs Hannah Cifers Tale of the Tape

Mackenzie Dern   Hannah Cifers
27 Age 27
5-foot-4 Height 5-foot-1
123 lbs Weight 115 lbs
63 inches Reach 62 inches
7-1 (0 KOs)  Record 10-4 (5 KOs)

Mackenzie Dern vs Hannah Cifers predictions and betting picks

PREDICTION: Dern to win via submission +100 - Dern might be a bit overvalued at -390 but she is certainly a better all-around fighter than Cifers who will need to keep this fight standing up if she wants a chance. I don't have enough faith in her takedown defense for that. Expect Dern to bully Cifers on the mat and bet on her to get back in the win column with a submission victory.

 

Billy Quarantillo vs Spike Carlyle UFC Fight Night betting odds

UFC Fight Night Odds Billy Quarantillo Spike Carlyle
Win outright -138 +118
Win via KO/TKO +280 +290
Win via points +270 +500
Win via submission +800 +850
Draw +5,000 +5,000

Billy Quarantillo vs Spike Carlyle betting preview

The third fight on the main card was originally supposed to be between Kevin Holland and Daniel Rodriguez but with Holland being replaced at the last minute by Gabriel Green due to injury, this catchweight fight has replaced it in the pecking order. 

Both of these fighters are relatively new to the UFC circuit with each entering just their second UFC tilt. Spike "Alpha Ginger" Carlyle enters on a five-fight win streak and had a first round TKO of Aalon Cruz in his UFC debut at UFC Fight Night 169.

Quarantillo has six consecutive victories and forced Jacob Kilburn to submit with a triangle choke in his UFC debut at UFC on ESPN 7 last December.

Billy Quarantillo vs Spike Carlyle Tale of the Tape

Billy Quarantillo   Spike Carlyle
31 Age 27
5-foot-10 Height 5-foot-8
145 lbs Weight 145 lbs
70 inches Reach 71 inches
13-2 (5 KOs) Record 9-1 (5 KOs)

Billy Quarantillo vs Spike Carlyle predictions and betting picks

PREDICTION: How fight will end KO/TKO -105 - Despite being smaller guys both of these fighters pack power. The Alpha Ginger in particular is a whirling ball of fury throwing elbows and spinning backfists. Carlyle's last three fights have all been knockout victories while four of Quarantillo's last five fights have been decided by KO/TKO.

Both of these guys will try to put on a show for the biggest crowd of their lives and will likely be on the offensive. We're not sure which fighter to bet on but we think one of them will end up with a knockout.

 

Roosevelt Roberts vs Brok Weaver UFC Fight Night betting odds

UFC Fight Night Odds Roosevelt Roberts Brok Weaver
Win outright -320 +260
Win via KO/TKO +550 +1,200
Win via points +145 +500
Win via submission +300 +850
Draw +5,000 +5,000

Roosevelt Roberts vs Brok Weaver betting preview

Roberts is a massive favorite at -320 in this fight. Roberts is coming off a unanimous decision victory over Alexander Yakovlov bouncing back from a loss to Vinc Pichel. He is now 3-1 in his UFC career.

Brok "Chata Tuska" Weaver is riding an eight-fight win streak but the vast majority of his MMA fights have come at the Island Fights level. He is coming off a fight where he was getting absolutely owned by Kazula Vargas before being knocked out by an illegal knee while he was sitting against the cage, resulting in a victory by disqualification.

Roosevelt Roberts vs Brok Weaver Tale of the Tape

Roosevelt Roberts   Brok Weaver
26 Age 28
6-foot-2 Height 6-foot-0
155 lbs Weight 155 lbs
73 inches Reach 73 inches
9-1 (3 KOs) Record 15-4 (2 KOs)

Roosevelt Roberts vs Brok Weaver predictions and betting picks

PREDICTION: Roberts win by points +145 - Weaver can consider himself lucky he got the victory in his last fight considering how badly he was losing at the time of the disqualification. Ignoring that DQ win, five of Weaver's last seven fights have gone to a decision, while each of Roberts' last three fights have gone the distance.

Weaver is a brawler who likes to stand and throw punches, and he's nowhere near as polished as Roberts. We're betting on this fight to go to a decision which favors the more technical fighter in Roberts.

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