The Southern Methodist Mustangs look to build on their 4-0 start as they head to New Orleans to take on the Tulane Green Wave in AAC college football action on Friday.
College football betting lines opened with SMU as a 6.5-point favorite against the Green Wave, who have gone 2-2 to start the season and are coming off a 49-31 loss to Houston.
We break down the NCAA football odds with our best free picks and predictions for Southern Methodist vs. Tulane on Friday, October 16, with kickoff at 6 p.m. ET.
Southern Methodist Mustangs vs Tulane Green Wave betting preview
Weather
It's expected to be a warm and clear evening at Yulman Stadium in New Orleans, with temperatures between 58 and 72 degrees and brisk winds reaching up to 15 mph. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.
Key Injuries
Southern Methodist: Reggie Roberson Jr. WR (Out), TJ McDaniel RB (Out), Brandon Crossley CB (Out)
Tulane: Tyjae Spears RB (Out), Corey Dauphine RB (Out)
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Tulane is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog. Find more NCAA football betting trends for Southern Methodist vs. Tulane.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Tulane surrendered 476 yards and 49 points to Houston last week and could have an even harder time against Southern Methodist on Friday. The Mustangs are coming off a double-digit win season for the first time since 1984, with their offense steamrolling opponents to the tune of 43 points per game in 2019.
SMU might be even better this year thanks to returning quarterback Shane Buechele who has completed 68.6 percent of his passes for 1,326 yards and 10 touchdowns through four games.
The Mustangs are first in the country with 601 yards per game against FBS foes. They should be able to exploit a vulnerable Green Wave pass defense that has allowed opposing QBs to throw for 271.2 yards per game and a whopping 9.0 yards per pass attempt.
As for Tulane's offense, with the exception of a 66-point performance against Southern Miss it has looked fairly pedestrian, averaging just 327 yards per game over its other three contests. Tulane has neither the defense to slow down, nor the offense to keep up, with the Mustangs attack. Take Southern Methodist to win and cover.
PREDICTION: Southern Methodist -6.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
With how explosive the Mustangs offense is — and how vulnerable their defense can be at times — the Over might look like an easy play. But don't be so quick to pull the trigger: after lighting up the scoreboard for most of the 2019 season, oddsmakers seem to have adjusted to the Mustangs high-scoring ways and SMU has now gone 5-2 to the Under in their last seven contests.
Also, the Green Wave may have scored 31 points last week against Houston but two of those touchdowns came on defense and they mustered just 211 total yards against a Cougars defense that was one of the worst in the nation a year ago.
Tulane's offense has been spearheaded by its ground game and season-ending injuries to its top returning rusher, Corey Dauphine, and this year's No. 1 RB, Tyjae Spears, has tested the backfield depth. The Mustangs will also be missing some key offensive players of their own in leading receiver Reggie Roberson Jr. and running back TJ McDaniel.
Despite the Mustangs lighting up FCS Stephen F. Austin and one of the conference's worst defenses in North Texas, they didn't look quite that unstoppable in their other two games. SMU scored a modest 30 points against Memphis while putting up 31 points in its season opener versus Texas State. Look for this game to go Under the lofty total.
PREDICTION: Under 67 (-110)
First Quarter Bet
The Mustangs have gotten off to fast starts this season, ranking fourth in the country with 12.7 points per game in the first quarter. They've also been stingy on defense early, holding opponents to just 1.0 ppg in the first 15 minutes.
Look for the Mustangs to get on the scoreboard first in this contest, and with their 22 touchdowns compared to just seven field goals it's likely that they'll do that by punching it into the end zone.
PREDICTION: First Score Method (6-way) - Southern Methodist touchdown (+137)
Southern Methodist vs Tulane betting card
- Southern Methodist -6.5 (-110)
- Under 67 (-110)
- First Score Method - Southern Methodist touchdown (+137)
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