Israel Adesanya vs. Paulo Costa is the main event at UFC 253 betting on Saturday, September 26 at Flash Forum on Yas Island in Abu Dhabi, UAE.
This should be a terrific tilt as two unbeaten fighters in the prime of their careers face off with the middleweight title at stake. UFC odds have the current title-holder Israel Adesanya as a -168 favorite but oddsmakers aren't counting out Costa with the challenger at +136.
We break down the UFC betting odds for this middleweight title fight and give our best picks and predictions for UFC 253: Adesanya vs Costa.
Adesanya vs Costa fight odds
| Method of Victory | Israel Adesanya | Paulo Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Win outright | -168 | +136 |
| Win by KO/TKO | +150 | +220 |
| Win by points | +340 | +750 |
| Win by submission | +2,200 | +2,000 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel
Adesanya vs Costa betting preview
Adesanya is fresh off a unanimous decision victory over Yoel Romero and is now 19-0 in his MMA career, with recent UFC victories over Anderson Silva, Kelvin Gastelum and Robert Whittaker. He's also a former professional kickboxer with 75 wins under his belt.
The Last Stylebender is arguably the best striker in the UFC and uses his length, quickness and kicking ability to devastating effect. His crisp counter-punching led to the knockout of Whittaker last October, while he defeated Romero with a more technical (some might say boring) strategy.
Paulo "The Eraser" Costa is also undefeated in his career, going 13-0 including 5-0 in the UFC. The 29-year-old is also coming off a decision victory over Romero but his fight was far more exciting with plenty of brutal strikes exchanged. Prior to that bout, Costa had won each of his previous five fights by TKO.
The Brazilian comes from a background in BJJ but loves to mix it up on his feet and has tremendous power and explosiveness. He's a brash and aggressive fighter who isn't shy about going after other fighters on social media, calling Adesanya "afraid" and a "P***y African" in a since-deleted tweet.
Adesanya vs Costa tale of the tape
| Israel Adesanya | Paulo Costa | |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | Age | 29 |
| 6-foot-4 | Height | 6-foot-1 |
| 185 lbs | Weight | 185 lbs |
| 80 inches | Reach | 72 inches |
| 19-0 (14 KO) | Record | 13-0 (11 KO) |
Adesanya vs Costa UFC predictions and betting picks
PREDICTION: Adesanya to win -168 - Costa will be looking to close Adesanya's massive eight-inch reach advantage and make things dirty. However, Adesanya has terrific footwork and head movement which makes him a difficult target to hit cleanly.
Adesanya does a great job at creating separation and against Whittaker and Gastelum he proved that despite his skinny frame, his technical striking and chin are good enough to come away with points in inside exchanges.
While Adesanya's fight against Romero might have been boring, it showed he has the mental acumen to not get goaded into a brawl with a more powerful opponent. Look for Adesanya to play matador to Costa's bull, strike at a distance and keep moving, wearing Costa down.
PREDICTION: Adesanya to win via points +340 - Costa is a powerfully-built fighter who weighed 213 pounds by the time he stepped in the octagon with Romero. While that size gives him an advantage in strength and power, it also takes a lot of energy to carry around the octagon, especially with his high output level.
Dragging the challenger to the deep end in the championship rounds is Adesanya's best chance of victory and we think he will do just that, picking apart and countering a tired Costa in the later rounds.
PREDICTION: Fight to go the distance +215 - Oddsmakers are predicting a finish in this one but as our earlier picks demonstrate, we think there is plenty of value in betting on this fight to go the full 25 minutes. While Costa will be hunting for a stoppage, if he doesn't get it early his cardio could slow him down and drag this fight the distance.
Although Adesanya is a proficient striker, five of his last seven fights have gone to the cards and Costa has proven (especially in his clash with Romero) that he has a granite chin.
