It's Week 8 in the CFL but the Edmonton Elks are still looking for their first win of the year as they welcome the BC Lions to Commonwealth Stadium on Saturday night. Although injured BC quarterback Vernon Adams Jr. won’t be sidelined long-term the Lions announced that they’d start Dane Evans against an Elks side that has lost 20 consecutive home games.
Oddsmakers don't expect them to snap that ugly streak on Saturday with CFL betting lines opening with the Leos as 9-point faves before shortening to -7.5. Here are my best free CFL picks and predictions for Lions vs. Elks on July 29.
Lions vs Elks best odds
Lions vs Elks picks and predictions
The Edmonton Elks are once again the worst team in the league and although they covered the massive spread placed in from of them last week against the Bombers they still lost by 14 points. The BC Lions lost Vernon Adams Jr. to a knee injury in the first quarter last week but still ended up beating the Roughriders 19-9.
Although Adams is officially listed as questionable for Saturday, the Lions are being cautious about their franchise QB and have said that Dane Evans will start with Dominique Davis backing him up. Evans has been a bit turnover-prone over the last couple of years but he still has a good arm and is more than capable of making spot starts.
Especially since he's surrounded by weapons and will get to face an Edmonton defense that doesn't get much pressure and ranks seventh in the league in yards allowed per pass attempt (9.6). The Elks have been even worse against the run where they allow a whopping 144.9 yards per game on 5.8 yards per rush.
That's bad news against a BC side that will have Taquan Mizzell back in the lineup after missing the last two games. Mizzell had 46 carries for 246 yards through Week 5 and he'll combine with the speedy Shaun Shivers to give BC a duo of dangerous backs.
On the other side of the ball, this incompetent Elks offense should get eaten alive by a BC stop unit that allows the fewest points per game (15.7) and yards per play (4.88) in the CFL.
Elks QB Taylor Cornelius has thrown seven interceptions and four touchdowns in six games while having the lowest pass efficiency rating (71.5) among all qualifiers. It doesn't help that he's missing his best receiver in Geno Lewis and has to work behind the league's lowest-rated offensive line per PFF. That means Cornelius won't have much time to throw against a Lions defense that ranks second in the league in sacks and is led by pass-rush extraordinaire Mathieu Betts.
The Elks also haven't been benefitting from home-field advantage. They have lost 20 games in a row at Commonwealth and gone just 3-17 against the spread during that span.
My best bet: Lions -7.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Lions vs Elks same-game parlay
Lions -7.5 (-110)
Hatcher Over 64. receiving yards (-114)
Evans Over 230.5 passing yards (-114)
The Lions' top wide receiver Dominique Rhymes has been ruled out for Saturday but in typical CFL fashion for sportsbooks they still have him listed with his receiving yards prop sitting at 62.5.
The absence of Rhymes should mean more targets and yards for Hatcher who missed the first three games of the year with a foot injury but has been a reliable contributor since. He hauled in eight of 10 targets for 104 yards in his season debut in Week 4 and followed up on that with six catches for 68 yards in Week 5. After a bye in Week 6, he came back last week to rack up 74 receiving yards and seemed to have good chemistry with Evans.
Evans is an interesting QB that is very capable of airing it out and has thrown for plenty of yards when starting over the last several years. Although interceptions were a major problem for Evans last year, he still did a good job of picking up yards through the air. With plenty of talented wideouts like Hatcher, Lucky Whitehead, and Alexander Hollins on the Leos roster, Evans shouldn't have any problem going Over this modest number — even if he does throw a pick or two.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Lions vs Elks spread and Over/Under analysis
The spread opened with the Lions at -9 but has slimmed to -7.5 following the reports that Evans would be under center.
The Lions pushed against the Riders last week and are now 5-1 straight up and 4-0-1 ATS on the year. It has seemed like a three-team league this year with the Lions, Argonauts, and Blue Bombers clearly separating themselves from the other teams in the CFL.
Not only have those teams generally been beating the bottom-feeders in the league, they are covering the spread at a high rate. Against teams outside of that Top-3, the Lions, Argos, and Bombers have combined to go 13-1 SU and 11-2-1 ATS.
The Elks are 0-7 SU and 2-5 ATS although both of those covers came within their last three games. Thanks to their punchless offense the Under has gone 5-2 in their seven games this year.
The total is set between 42.5 and 43.5 depending on the book, but hasn't seen much movement from the opening number.
Lions vs Elks trend to know
The Under is 7-0 in the Lions' last seven games versus West Division opponents while going 5-0 in the Elks previous five contests against inter-divisional foes. Find more CFL betting trends for Lions vs. Elks.
Lions vs Elks game info
| Location: | Commonwealth Stadium, Edmonton, AB |
| Date: | Saturday, July 29, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Lions vs Elks key injuries
Lions: Dominique Rhymes WR (Out), Vernon Adams Jr. QB (Questionable).
Elks: Emmanuel Arceneaux WR (Out), Ed Gainey DB (Out), Aaron Grymes DB (Out), J-Min Pelley DT (Out), Enock Makonzo SLB (Out), Geno Lewis WR (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
