Week 11 in the CFL kicks off on Thursday with the Hamilton Tiger-Cats taking on the Edmonton Elks. It's the midway point of the season and the Elks are still looking for their first win after allowing victory to slip between their fingers against the Bombers last week.
Oddsmakers don't expect them to get that elusive victory on Thursday with CFL betting lines opening with the Ti-cats as 4-point favorites before growing to -5.5. Here are my best free CFL picks and predictions for Elks vs. Tiger-Cats on August 17.
Elks vs Tiger-Cats best odds
Elks vs Tiger-Cats picks and predictions
The Edmonton Elks probably thought they finally had their first win of the year last Thursday when they had a 29-17 lead against Winnipeg late in the third quarter. However, they allowed the Blue Bombers to score 21 unanswered points in the final 16 minutes leading to yet another home defeat for Edmonton.
However, it's worth mentioning that they certainly looked more competitive than usual in that matchup and quarterback Tre Ford gave them a spark in his first career pro start.
Ford isn't the most polished passer (he completed 12 of 16 passes for 189 yards in that game) but he's blazing fast and his mobility is invaluable behind a subpar Edmonton offensive line.
It also helps that the Elks are finally getting healthy at WR with former All-Star Manny Arceneaux coming off the IL last week and 2022 CFL MOP finalist Geno Lewis returning to the lineup this week.
The Hamilton Tiger-Cats however are still banged up, especially on their offensive line and at quarterback. While the interior of their line has been excellent they've struggled on the edge with projected starters Joel Figuerora and Tyrone Riley sidelined by injuries. At QB veterans Bo Levi Mitchell and Matthew Shiltz are on the six-game IL, forcing rookie Taylor Powell into a starting role.
Powell completed 20-of-31 passes for 202 yards with a pair of picks in Hamilton's Week 9 loss to the Alouettes. He has an average pass depth of just 8.8 yards in two starts and that inability to stretch the field will allow Edmonton to sit on underneath routes and focus on stopping the run.
Sure the Elks have played poorly on defense but it will be easier for them to gameplan against Powell and a punch-less Hamilton offense. The Ticats have actually been even worse on D, surrendering a league-worst 28 points per game and coming off a contest where they surrendered 453 yards to the Alouettes.
The Elks are certainly a franchise in turmoil but given how bad the Ticats have looked this season, I'm not touching them as 5.5-point faves.
My best bet: Elks +5.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Elks vs Tiger-Cats same-game parlay
Elks +5.5 (-105)
Under 44.5 (-110)
Kevin Brown Over 57.5 rushing yards (-114)
Keep an eye on the weather for tomorrow's contest because the curent forecast is predicting a strong chance of showers along with high winds. That could neuter both offenses since they already have inexperienced passers under center.
However, with wet and windy weather possibly playing a role, expect the Elks to lean on their ground game. Brown rushed for 98 yards last week and has rushed for at least 65 yards in three of his last five games.
Brown is a talented back that often sees his role reduced due to a negative game script. Since I like Edmonton to cover on Thursday, taking the Over 57.5 on his rushing yards makes sense against a Hamilton D that surrenders 121.6 rushing yards per game.
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Elks vs Tiger-Cats spread and Over/Under analysis
This line hit the board with the Ticats favored at -4.5 but has grown to -5.5. The total has ticked down from 46 to 44.5.
The Ticats began the year going 0-4 straight up and against the spread but they've gone 3-2 SU and ATS in their last five. They are coming off a bye but were hammered 27-14 by the Als in Week 9.
Despite ranking last in the league in scoring defense, the Under has gone 5-3 for Hamilton this year.
After last week's collapse against the Bombers, the Elks are 0-9 straight up but they have covered the spread in three of their last five games. Despite also giving up plenty of points, the Elks anemic offense has resulted in the Under cashing in six of their nine games this year.
Elks vs Tiger-Cats trend to know
Tiger-Cats are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games. Find more CFL betting trends for Elks vs. Tiger-Cats.
Elks vs Tiger-Cats game info
| Location: | Tim Hortons Field, Hamilton, ON |
| Date: | Thursday, August 17, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Elks vs Tiger-Cats key injuries
Elks: Loucheiz Purifoy DB (Out), Enock Makonzo SLB (Out), J-Min Pelley DT (Out), Aaron Grymes DB (Out).
Tiger-Cats: Joel Figueroa LT (Out), Chris Van Zeyl OT (Out), Malik Carney DE (Questionable), Kyle Saxelid OL (Questionable), Ja'Gared Davis DE (Out), Bo Levi Mitchell QB (Out), Matthew Shilz QB (Out), Tyrone Riley OT (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
