The Winnipeg Blue Bombers try to bounce back from their worst defeat in years as they head to Molson Stadium to face the Montreal Alouettes in Week 4 of CFL action on Saturday.
CFL betting lines opened with the Bombers as 5-point road favorites for this Canada Day showdown before ticking up to -6. Here are my best free Blue Bombers vs. Alouettes CFL picks and predictions for July 1.
Blue Bombers vs Alouettes best odds
Blue Bombers vs Alouettes picks and predictions
It's not completely shocking that the Blue Bombers lost to the Leos in Week 3, but it was shocking that they were held to just six points at home. Reigning two-time Most Outstanding Player Zach Collaros was held below 200 passing yards and was sacked seven times behind a normally dominant defensive line.
I expect Collaros and that line to bounce back against a Montreal defense that has benefitted from playing against some terrible offensive teams to begin the year. The Als took advantage of a disastrous Redblacks offense in Week 1 and limited a sloppy Hamilton offense last week, but surrendered 345 passing yards to backup QB Matthew Shiltz.
The Alouettes are dead last in the league with three sacks and if they can't get pressure on Collaros he'll pick them apart.
The Als have gotten terrific play from new QB Cody Fajardo. The former Roughrider has completed 73.3% of his passes for 553 yards for a pair of touchdowns and no interceptions. What's most surprising about Fajardo's play is that he's been doing it with several of Montreal's top wide receivers on the IL. However, that lack of depth at receiver will hurt against a Winnipeg stop unit that thrives on making big plays.
The Bombers lead the league with 22 passes knocked down while ranking second with four forced fumbles. The Als have yet to force a fumble this season and have just four passes knocked down. While Montreal has been picking off plenty of passes, that has more to do with poor decision-making from Nick Arbuckle and Shiltz than anything their defensive backs are doing.
Ultimately I think this line might be a bit of an overreaction based on last week's results. The Bombers are much better than their defeat at the hands of the Lions and while the Als beat the Ticats by 26 points they were actually outgained in net yards.
The Als have benefitted from playing against a pair of error-prone offenses so far this season and won't be able to keep up with a much more efficient Bombers attack on Canada Day.
My best bet: Blue Bombers -5.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Blue Bombers vs Alouettes same-game parlay
Blue Bombers -5.5
Under 48.5
Fajardo Under 245.5 passing yards
Collaros Under 269.5 passing yards
At first glance, this should be a high-scoring contest. After all, both Collaros (with the exception of last week) and Fajardo have looked very good under center and Winnipeg has given up at least 27 points in every game this year. However, we could be in for very wet weather on Saturday night.
There's a risk of strong thundershowers in Montreal tomorrow night with more than 15mm of rain and winds expected to gust at close to 30 km/h. That could suppress the aerial attacks of both squads and lead to the Under cashing.
I'll follow that train of thought with this parlay as I fade both quarterbacks on their passing yards total and also take the Under 48.5.
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Blue Bombers vs Alouettes spread and Over/Under analysis
This line opened with the Bombers at -5 on Monday and quickly ticked up to -6 although some books are still offering it at -5.5.
The Blue Bombers dropped more than 40 points in their first two games of the season, hammering the Ticats and Roughriders by double-digits. However, they came crashing down to earth last week, losing 30-6 at home to the Lions and getting outplayed in every phase of the game despite being 6-point favorites.
The Als edged the Redblacks 19-12 in Week 1 and then destroyed the Ticats 38-12 last week after coming off a bye.
The total opened at 48.5 and has stayed steady at most books despite messy weather expected for Saturday night.
Blue Bombers vs Alouettes trend to know
The Blue Bombers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS loss. Find more CFL betting trends for Blue Bombers vs. Alouettes.
Blue Bombers vs Alouettes game info
| Location: | Percival Molson Memorial Stadium, Montreal, QC |
| Date: | Saturday, July 1, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Blue Bombers vs Alouettes key injuries
Blue Bombers: Brady Oliveira RB (Questionable), Adam Bighill LB (Questionable), Dalton Schoen WR (Questionable), Demerio Houston DB (Questionable), Jackson Heffcoat DE (Questionable), Jamal Parker DB (Out), Winston Rose DB (Out), Mike Miller FB (Out).
Alouettes: Pier-Olivier Lestage G (Questionable), Avery Williams LB (Questionable), Ciante Evans DB (Out), Reggie White Jr., Greg Ellingson WR (Out), Tyson Philpot WR (Out), Sean Jamieson C (Out), Nafees Lyon DB (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
