Week 5 in the CFL wraps up on Sunday with a showdown between the Montreal Alouettes and BC Lions. Both teams will try to bounce back from their first defeats of the year after the Lions got destroyed by the Argonauts and the Als were shut down by the Blue Bombers last weekend.
CFL betting lines opened with the Leos as 7-point home favorites before that number ticked up to -7.5. Here are my best free CFL picks and predictions for Alouettes vs. Lions on Sunday, July 9.
Alouettes vs Lions best odds
Alouettes vs Lions picks and predictions
Lions quarterback Vernon Adams Jr. is coming off one of his worst performances as a pro, throwing six interceptions in a 45-24 loss to the Argonauts on Monday.
That said, the 2019 East All-Star is a veteran with a proven track record and he has the requisite mentality to bounce back this week. Despite those six picks, Adams still threw for 388 yards and wasn't benched, which shows the faith this team has in him as well as the quality of his receiving targets.
Those targets will be bolstered by the return of 2021 All-Star Lucky Whitehead, who missed last week with a hamstring injury. Whitehead, Dominique Rhymes, and Keon Hatcher give Adams one of the best groups of wideouts in the CFL and they'll look to take advantage of an Alouttes secondary that will likely be missing its top defensive back Ciante Evans.
Adams will also have plenty of time to throw with Montreal's defense ranking second-last in the CFL in pressure rate — a far cry from last week when they faced an Argos stop unit that leads the league in that category.
The main concern when betting on passing yards props for a QB on a 7.5-point favorite is that his team could lean on the ground game if they get up big. Don't expect that to happen here.
The Leos starting running back Taquan Mizzell is sidelined with a knee injury and backup Kienan LaFrance is also injured. That means the only running back on their roster is 186-pound rookie Shaun Shivers who they signed off the street less than two weeks ago.
Suffice to say that Adams will be airing it out on Sunday and should surpass his relatively modest passing yards total.
My best bet: Vernon Adams Jr. Over 249.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Alouettes vs Lions same-game parlay
Vernon Adams Jr. Over 249.5 passing yards (-114)
Keon Hatcher Over 54.5 receiving yards (-114)
Austin Mack Over 71.5 receiving yards (-114)
Hatcher broke out with 1,043 receiving yards last season and he was even better in the playoffs where he totaled 295 yards in a pair of contests. He missed the first three games of this season with a foot injury, but showed he was back to full strength on Monday, hauling in eight of 10 targets for 104 yards.
Although Rhymes might be the best receiver in the league, Hatcher's O/U on receiving yards in nearly 20 yards lower and he should get plenty of targets in the slot as he bullies Montreal's smaller defensive backs.
Since I'm backing Adams and the Lions offense to have a big game it makes sense to assume that the Als will also be throwing the ball a lot as they try to play catch up. Montreal's wide receiver corps has been decimated by injuries, but Austin Mack has been carrying the offense.
The first-year wideout has been one of the league's breakout players this season and has racked up more than 80 receiving yards in every contest. He should continue to see plenty of targets with Reggie White Jr. and Greg Ellingson still sidelined.
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Alouettes vs Lions spread and Over/Under analysis
This line hit the board with the Lions installed as 7-point home favorites but has since shifted to -7.5 although several books haven't moved off that opening line and are instead juicing the faves at -120. The total opened at 44.5 and has ticked up to 45.5.
The Leos looked very good through their first two weeks of the season, and they took that play to a whole other level by dominating the Bombers on both sides of the ball in a 30-6 rout in Week 3.
That led to a letdown spot in Week 4 where they went to Toronto as 3-point faves and were destroyed 45-24 by the defending champs.
The Alouettes defeated the Redblacks 19-12 in Week 1 before routing the Tiger-Cats by 26 points in Week 2. After enjoying a bye week they hosted the Bombers and lost 17-3.
Thunderstorms leading to a two-hour delay played a factor in that low-scoring contest, but the Als also had sloppy turnovers in the red zone while their defense was shredded for 185 yards on the ground.
The Alouettes have historically struggled when making the three-time zone trip to the West Coast, going 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games at BC Place. That said, they haven't played in Vancouver since 2019, and they covered the spread in that contest losing in a 25-23 nail-biter.
They also have an extra two days of rest when compared to the Lions, who played on Monday, and the fact that kickoff is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET instead of later will help.
Alouettes vs Lions trend to know
The Lions are 4-0 ATS in their last four games at home and are also 4-0 ATS in their previous four contests following a loss. Find more CFL betting trends for Alouettes vs. Lions.
Alouettes vs Lions game info
| Location: | BC Place, Vancouver, BC |
| Date: | Sunday, July 9, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Alouettes vs Lions key injuries
Alouettes: Ciante Evans DB (Doubtful), Phillipe Gagnon G (Out), Greg Ellingson WR (Out), Reggie White Jr. (Out), Tyson Philpot WR (Out), Sean Jamieson C (Out), Nafees Lyon DB (Out).
Lions: Taquan Mizzell RB (Out), Kienan LaFrance RB (Out), Philip Norman OL (Out), Manny Rugamba SLB (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
