Jake Paul vs Anthony Joshua Odds & Analysis: Is Problem Child Ready to Grow Up?

Jake Paul is leveling up against Anthony Joshua. Discover why the odds are heavily stacked against the former YouTuber.

Ryan Murphy - Managing Editor at Covers.com
Ryan Murphy • Managing Editor
Nov 14, 2025 • 11:14 ET • 4 min read
Jake Paul boxing
Photo By - Imagn Images. Jake Paul during a boxing match against Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. at Honda Center.

In one of boxing’s most surreal crossover spectacles yet, former unified heavyweight champion Anthony Joshua is in advanced talks to step into the ring with YouTuber-turned-contender Jake Paul in a heavyweight bout scheduled to stream globally on December 19.

Joshua brings Olympic pedigree, championship experience, and concussive power, while Paul arrives riding headline-grabbing wins and a vast digital following that guarantees worldwide attention.

Traditionalists will surely question the matchup, but intrigue around size, danger, and legacy ensures this proposed showdown will dominate conversation long before the first punch is thrown.

Let's take a look at the latest boxing odds available and examine the stylistic differences between Paul and Joshua.

Jake Paul vs Anthony Joshua odds

Boxer Odds Implied Probability
Jake Paul +800 11.1%
Anthony Joshua -1500 93.8%

Joshua is a prohibitive -1500 favorite over Paul because almost every measurable edge leans his way. The British boxer is a former unified heavyweight champion with an Olympic gold medal, over 30 professional bouts, and wins against world-class opposition.

He’s naturally bigger, stronger, and more accustomed to taking and delivering heavyweight power.

Paul, while improving, is a relative novice whose résumé is largely built on smaller ex-MMA fighters and limited professional boxers. Oddsmakers reflect the gulf in experience, size, and proven durability.

In short, Joshua has operated at boxing’s true elite level, while Paul is still testing whether he truly belongs there.

How Paul vs Joshua came about

This matchup really starts with the collapse of Paul’s planned fight with Gervonta “Tank” Davis.

Paul was signed to headline a November 14 exhibition in Miami against Davis, to be streamed globally on Netflix. However, Davis was hit with a serious civil lawsuit in Miami-Dade County in October alleging battery, aggravated battery, false imprisonment, kidnapping, and emotional distress, triggering a criminal investigation.

In response, Most Valuable Promotions (MVP) and Netflix pulled Davis from the card and canceled the entire event, announcing automatic ticket refunds.

MVP then began hunting for a replacement headliner, sounding out names like Francis Ngannou, Andre Ward, Ryan Garcia, and Nate Diaz, but nothing stuck on short notice.

That search escalated into talks with Joshua’s promoter, Eddie Hearn. Hearn has stressed that, as of today, nothing is formally signed. But he did confirm there have been discussions with Paul’s adviser, Nakisa Bidarian, and insists any Paul vs. Joshua bout would be a “real fight” under normal Queensberry rules with standard gloves.

Jake Paul vs Anthony Joshua tale of the tape

Category Jake Paul Anthony Joshua
Full name Jake Joseph Paul Anthony Oluwafemi Olaseni Joshua
Nickname The Problem Child AJ
Nationality American (Cleveland, Ohio, USA) British (Watford, England)
Age 28 36
Primary weight class Cruiserweight / Heavyweight Heavyweight
Height 6 ft 1 in (185 cm) 6 ft 6 in (198 cm)
Reach 76 in (193 cm) 82 in (208 cm)
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Professional record 12-1 (7 KOs) 28-4 (25 KOs)
Total pro bouts 13 32

Style and skills comparison

Joshua and Paul are built for very different kinds of fights.

Joshua is a classic heavyweight puncher-boxer. He favors an upright stance, has a heavy but technically sound jab, and possesses fight-ending power in both hands. At his best, he sets up knockouts methodically behind his jab and straight right, overwhelming opponents with size and combination punching.

Paul, meanwhile, is a natural cruiserweight moving up. He generates respectable power, especially with his overhand right, but doesn’t carry the same one-shot threat against true elite heavyweights.

In terms of speed, Joshua’s hands are fast for a man his size, but his feet can be plodding, particularly in later rounds as his gas tank dips. Paul is generally quicker and looser with his movement, though his technique can get ragged under pressure.

Experience is the real gulf between these two fighters. Joshua owns a deep amateur pedigree (Olympic gold) and over 30 bouts against world-level pros, including Wladimir Klitschko, Oleksandr Usyk, and Deontay Wilder.

Paul’s résumé, while improving, is built mostly on ex-MMA fighters and a handful of seasoned boxers. Consequently, Joshua has faced, and often beaten, far higher opposition.

Under real heavyweight championship conditions, Joshua's seasoning, ring IQ, and proven power give him a clear stylistic and experiential edge over Paul.

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Ryan Murphy Managing Editor at Covers
Managing Editor

Ryan Murphy began his love affair with sports journalism at the age of nine when he wrote his first article about his little league baseball team. He has since authored his own weekly column for Fox Sports and has been a trusted voice within the sports betting industry for the past eight years with stops at XL Media and Churchill Downs. He’s been proud to serve as Managing Editor at Covers since 2022.

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