Fight night is officially here!
Jake Paul and former two-time heavyweight champion Anthony Joshua headline a global live boxing event this Friday, December 19, streaming exclusively on Netflix from Miami’s Kaseya Center.
It’s a matchup built on pure contrast: Joshua’s world-title pedigree and heavyweight power vs. Paul’s rapid rise, polarizing profile, and willingness to keep taking “what-if” swings that traditional boxing rarely delivers.
With the bout now hours away, the betting market still sees this as Joshua’s fight to lose, even if late-week money has slightly narrowed the gap.
Let's take a look at the latest boxing odds available and examine the stylistic differences between Paul and Joshua.
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Jake Paul vs Anthony Joshua odds
| Boxer |  Odds |
Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Paul | +540 | 15.6% |
| Anthony Joshua | -850 | 89.5% |
Odds courtesy of BET99.
Joshua remains a massive favorite, but the line has ticked a bit toward Paul as fight week arrives. Earlier numbers on this matchup commonly sat around Paul +700 / Joshua -1250, and the current price reflects a small (but notable) late move in the underdog’s direction.
Still, the story the odds are telling hasn’t changed: Joshua is the proven elite heavyweight with top-end physicality and experience, while Paul is betting on disruption, landing something clean early, creating chaos, and turning a spectacle into a shocker before Joshua can settle into a rhythm.
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Jake Paul vs Anthony Joshua method of victory odds
| Outcome |  Odds |
Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Paul points or decision | +1300 | 7.1% |
| Jake Paul KO/TKO | +1100 | 8.3% |
| Draw | +2500 | 3.8% |
| Anthony Joshua points or decision | +450 | 18.1% |
| Anthony Joshua KO/TKO | -360 | 78.2% |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel.
Jake Paul vs Anthony Joshua round betting odds
| Outcome | Odds |
Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Paul to win the fight in Round 1 | +7500 | 1.3% |
| Jake Paul to win the fight in Round 2 | +7000 | 1.4% |
| Jake Paul to win the fight in Round 3 | +6500 | 1.5% |
| Jake Paul to win the fight in Round 4 | +7000 | 1.4% |
| Jake Paul to win the fight in Round 5 | +7500 | 1.3% |
| Jake Paul to win the fight in Round 6 | +7500 | 1.3% |
| Jake Paul to win the fight in Round 7 | +8000 | 1.2% |
| Jake Paul to win the fight in Round 8 | +10000 | 1% |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel.
If Paul were to win - and that remains a very big if against a fighter of Joshua's caliber - the bookmakers at FanDuel are convinced his best chance is by knockout or TKO in Round 3. The sportsbook strongly favor Joshua overall and especially by KO, so Paul’s KO chances are treated as a small, sliced-up long shot in any given round.
Paul has seven KOs in his career, and his stoppages cluster in Round 1 (4 times), Round 2 (once), and Round 6 (twice), all against opposition well below Joshua’s level. That pattern suggests that if a Paul KO happens, it’s likeliest in an explosive early burst or a late catch when an opponent fades.
So among these lottery-type props, R1 and R6 align best with his history, while R3–5,7,8 are more pure “anything can happen” bets than outcomes supported by Paul’s past KO distribution.
How Paul vs Joshua came about
This matchup really starts with the collapse of Paul’s planned fight with Gervonta “Tank” Davis.
Paul was signed to headline a November 14 exhibition in Miami against Davis, to be streamed globally on Netflix. However, Davis was hit with a serious civil lawsuit in Miami-Dade County in October alleging battery, aggravated battery, false imprisonment, kidnapping, and emotional distress, triggering a criminal investigation.
In response, Most Valuable Promotions (MVP) and Netflix pulled Davis from the card and canceled the entire event, announcing automatic ticket refunds.
MVP then began hunting for a replacement headliner, sounding out names like Francis Ngannou, Andre Ward, Ryan Garcia, and Nate Diaz, but nothing stuck on short notice.
That search escalated into talks with Joshua’s promoter, Eddie Hearn. Hearn has stressed that, as of today, nothing is formally signed. But he did confirm there have been discussions with Paul’s adviser, Nakisa Bidarian, and insists any Paul vs. Joshua bout would be a “real fight” under normal Queensberry rules with standard gloves.
Jake Paul vs Anthony Joshua tale of the tape
| Category | Jake Paul | Anthony Joshua |
|---|---|---|
| Full name | Jake Joseph Paul | Anthony Oluwafemi Olaseni Joshua |
| Nickname | The Problem Child | AJ |
| Nationality | American (Cleveland, Ohio, USA) | British (Watford, England) |
| Age | 28 | 36 |
| Primary weight class | Cruiserweight / Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Height | 6 ft 1 in (185 cm) | 6 ft 6 in (198 cm) |
| Reach | 76 in (193 cm) | 82 in (208 cm) |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Professional record | 12-1 (7 KOs) | 28-4 (25 KOs) |
| Total pro bouts | 13 | 32 |
Style and skills comparison
Joshua and Paul are built for very different kinds of fights.
Joshua is a classic heavyweight puncher-boxer. He favors an upright stance, has a heavy but technically sound jab, and possesses fight-ending power in both hands. At his best, he sets up knockouts methodically behind his jab and straight right, overwhelming opponents with size and combination punching.
Paul, meanwhile, is a natural cruiserweight moving up. He generates respectable power, especially with his overhand right, but doesn’t carry the same one-shot threat against true elite heavyweights.
In terms of speed, Joshua’s hands are fast for a man his size, but his feet can be plodding, particularly in later rounds as his gas tank dips. Paul is generally quicker and looser with his movement, though his technique can get ragged under pressure.
Experience is the real gulf between these two fighters. Joshua owns a deep amateur pedigree (Olympic gold) and over 30 bouts against world-level pros, including Wladimir Klitschko, Oleksandr Usyk, and Deontay Wilder.
Paul’s résumé, while improving, is built mostly on ex-MMA fighters and a handful of seasoned boxers. Consequently, Joshua has faced, and often beaten, far higher opposition.
Under real heavyweight championship conditions, Joshua's seasoning, ring IQ, and proven power give him a clear stylistic and experiential edge over Paul.
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