Before you bash betting on Floyd Mayweather vs. Logan Paul, let’s all agree that boxing was a shit show long before Paul and his brother became professional douchebags — let alone “professional” boxers.
Case in point: The last time we officially saw Mayweather, he was pulling a $280-million heist by fighting MMA star Conor McGregor in 2017. And we all bet it, just like we’ll all bet on this exhibition slated for Hard Rock Stadium in Miami tonight.
The rules for the fight are sketchy, so before we lay down picks and predictions for Mayweather vs. Paul, we’ll add a disclaimer in the name of responsible gambling: tread lightly with this so-called fight. This is more of a stage production than a boxing promotion and both fighters are in on it.
But, if you have to appease that tiny voice in the back of your mind that wants to wager on these shenanigans (the same voice that wants to bet 10-team moneyline parlays every NFL Sunday), keep it light and keep it fun. You’re already down $50 bucks if you order the pay-per-view, you don’t want to risk much more betting on a bout that is more business deal than boxing match.
And with that out of the way, on with the Mayweather vs. Paul picks...
Floyd Mayweather Jr. vs Logan Paul picks
There are odds avalable for this bout at select sportsbooks around the globe, but with this event dubbed an exhibition and no winner declared, should it go the distance, many operators arent't taking action on Mayweather vs. Paul. The format is eight 3-minute rounds and the match was made with strict weight restrictions for both fighters.
Mayweather, who’s much smaller than Paul at 5-foot-8, couldn't weigh more than 160 pounds and came in at 155 pounds at Saturday's weigh-in. The 6-foot-2 Paul had to stay below 190 pounds, which is lighter than his fight with fellow social media personality KSI, and just did after tipping the scales at 189.5 pounds at the weigh-in. Paul does own a 4-inch reach advantage and will need every increment of it if this slap fight suddenly gets serious.
Mayweather opened as a -5,000 favorite and was down to -1,600 with Paul coming back at +700. But once it came out that no winner would be declared if the fight went the full eight rounds, many books backed out of the outrights. There are some "draw no bet" markets out there if you want to seek them, with Mayweather around -800 to win via stoppage (KO/TKO/DQ) and Paul priced as a +450 underdog.
On planet Earth, these odds would make most fight fans’ heads explode. But given the unbelievable alien landscape of this event, we’re no longer earthbound.
Part of this mind-numbing swing in the odds is that no one wants to lay -5,000 on Mayweather when the format and rules for the fight are written in disappearing ink. The general public, who will get sucked into watching this farce and likely wagering on it, wants to risk a little to win a lot, which makes Paul at plus-money the popular pick.
This is nothing new for Mayweather fights, with the 15-time world champ often priced at -1,000 and higher for his career, which is too rich for most bettors’ blood. The potential of a large payout on the opponent coupled with the burning disdain most fans have for the man known as “Money” routinely trims his odds as we draw closer to fight night. So if you’re seriously considering laying the lumber with Floyd, wait and see how cheap he gets.
Mayweather is arguably the greatest boxer of the modern era with an unblemished 50-0 professional record but hasn’t seriously fought since Andre Berto in 2015 and is 44 years old — 18 years the senior of his opponent. Paul has one “pro” bout under his belt against a YouTuber and lost via split decision. This is essentially like Washington Wizards Michael Jordan playing one-on-one with the best player from your lunchtime pick-up at the local YMCA.
Mayweather did fight in an exhibition boxing match versus kickboxing champion Tenshin Nasukawa in Japan back in December 2018, winning via first-round TKO. He smiled and toyed with his opponent for about a minute before smacking Nasukawa around the ring the rest of the round, prompting his foe’s corner to throw in the towel. Disappointed fight fans and boxing bettors claimed it was rigged and Mayweather walked away $9 million richer.
I can’t in clear conscience say this “fight” won’t end in controversy too, nor can I recommend betting big on any of the odds set for this event. So, if you can’t help yourself – and God knows we can’t sometimes – try to get the most bang for what should be modest betting bucks, since there are much safer and less scripted sports to wager on tonight.
With that in mind, we look to the fight props for better return and less conspiracy.
Will the fight go the distance?
Paul has nothing to lose here, especially not his dignity, which died a quick death a long time ago. He’s blessed with an opportunity to stand toe-to-toe with one of the best to ever wear the gloves. Mayweather would still be at the top of his sport if he chose to come out of retirement. And the jerk’s getting paid for it. Both jerks.
The fight will go eight 3-minute rounds. That’s a lot for anyone, even those in shape. I know I don’t want to watch Paul drag his blonde ass around the ring for 24 minutes, particularly once the adrenaline wears off after the first few rounds.
Much like the McGregor fight, Mayweather will make him look good for a round or two before putting an end to it all. There’s no shame in getting knocked out by an all-time great, if Paul gave two shits about “shame.”
PREDICTION: No (-200)
Will Logan Paul get knocked down?
Mayweather’s legacy is worth far more than whatever barf-inducing amount of money he’s going to rake in for fighting Paul, so don’t expect him to tarnish that in any way... well, besides taking part in these circus acts.
Mayweather is the greatest defensive boxer in the history of the sport and was rarely in trouble during his storied career, but he can deliver crushing shots on offense. He’s buckled 27 professional fighters in his 50 wins, including 2017’s 10th-round finish of McGregor, and scored an exhibition Round 1 TKO over Nasukawa in 2018 — two men who weren’t pure boxers but made a living getting punched in the face.
Normal dudes turn to dust when hit by a legit boxer, like coming out on the losing end of the Thanos lottery. Even with pillowy 12-ounce gloves being the weapon of choice, if Money goes at least 50 percent and clips Paul with a hook or even lands a stiff jab, he’s going down.
I’d say test my theory by letting your most average buddy smack you upside the head as hard as he can and see how weak your knees get, but providing picks for this dog and pony show is risky enough. Save yourself the pain and the dental bills and just believe me.
PREDICTION: Yes (-350)
Will Mayweather bleed?
Fighting Mayweather is like fighting fog. Even with a few years of ring rust and at the ripe old age of 44, Mayweather is as elusive as Sasquatch in the Witness Protect Program. There’s truth behind his former “Pretty Boy” nickname, as he’s rarely been touched in his 50 professional bouts.
The most punishment Mayweather has absorbed was versus Miguel Cotto in 2012, suffering a cut and bloody nose in a 12-round unanimous decision victory over one of the hardest hitting light middleweights of that era. Cotto's stiff left jab could crack concrete. Logan Paul's jab is suitable for fluffing pillows and pushing the buttons in the elevator.
The only way Mayweather bleeds is if the air conditioning in his limo dries out his nose and he sneezes too hard. To quote former Globo Gym mogul White Goodman, “Nobody makes me bleed my own blood”.
PREDICTION: No (-400)
Mayweather exact round prop
As mentioned, this fight will go as long as Mayweather wants it to.
He made us believe for three rounds that McGregor might actually be able to beat the greatest pure boxer of all time (and we who love to live bet thank him for that), before picking apart his opponent en route to a 10th round stoppage.
Mayweather likely would have carried Nasukawa a few rounds in their 2018 exhibition had the kickboxer not actually tried to win the fight in the opening minute of Round 1. But after throwing some hard shots that wiped the smile of Mayweather’s face, the undefeated American decided to cash out early and forced his foe's corner to throw in the towel.
Paul does have the size and reach advantage and if he’s done any training whatsoever, he should be able to run and hide behind his jab for at least three minutes. It would be bad business for him to go down in Round 1, so expect this fight to finish via KO, TKO or DQ in Round 2.
PREDICTION: Mayweather wins via KO/TKO/DQ in Round 2 (+375)
Mayweather vs Paul betting card
- Fight to go the distance - No (-200)
- Logan Paul to get knocked down - Yes (-350)
- Will Mayweather bleed? No (-400)
- Mayweather win via KO/TKO/DQ in Round 2 (+375)
First two picks made on 5/30/2021 at 3:40 p.m. ET. Last two made on 6/2/2021 at 8:54 a.m. ET.
Where can I bet on Mayweather vs Paul odds?
This is an exhibition fight which means books may be selective in their offerings for Mayweather vs. Paul odds. Check out the best sportsbooks available where you live and see what Mayweather vs. Paul odds are available.
