Gervonta Davis vs Hector Garcia Picks and Predictions: Tank Turns Garcia's Lights Off

Gervonta Davis vs. Hector Luis Garcia is scheduled for 12 rounds in the lightweight division this weekend from the Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C.

Davis is tuning up for a major fight with Ryan Garcia this April, though the reigning and defending WBA junior lightweight champion fancies himself a bit of an upset specialist.

Boxing odds have Davis a huge favorite at -1,450 and climbing. Garcia has been here before as the odds have him a decided underdog at +770.

Here are our picks and predictions for Davis vs. Garcia from Washington, D.C.

Gervonta Davis vs Hector Garcia odds

Odds courtesy of FanDuel as of January 5, 2023.

Gervonta Davis vs Hector Garcia betting predictions

• Pick: Davis ML (-1,450)
• Best Bet: Davis by KO/TKO (-380)

Picks made on January 2. Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Gervonta Davis vs Hector Garcia betting preview

Gervonta Davis is doing the wise thing in shaking off some rust ahead of his huge fight with Garcia this April. With a major fight on the horizon, and being out of the ring since last May, Davis could have done worse for this type of fight. WBA junior lightweight champion Garcia is coming off a career-altering year where he scored a pair of upsets to go from unobscured talent to a world champion.

“Tank” is a former recognized title holder at junior lightweight and has held secondary titles at lightweight and junior welterweight. Universally recognized as one of boxing's most destructive punchers, he also possesses an underrated skill set that makes him more dangerous than the average clubber.

Davis took care of business against brash rival Rolando Romero, putting him down with one shot to earn a sixth-round knockout. 

Of Davis’ 29 wins, 27 opponents have been knocked out with an average fight length of 4.22 rounds. The combination of his brutal power with excellent speed and timing makes him a rare two-way puncher that can end a fight at any given moment. It is to be seen if there is a fighter tough enough to handle Davis at the peak of his prime.

Nobody saw Hector Garcia as more than a prospect with stalled development, but that all changed last February. Garcia stepped in as an underdog against touted prospect Chris Colbert and beat the fight out of him in one of 2022’s biggest upsets. That earned him a shot at champion Roger Gutierrez, a fight he won by dominating in the early rounds while weathering a late surge to become a world champion.

The Dominican works behind a solid jab, mixing body shots with a lot of pressure. He does not stop pursuing his opponents and has a physically taxing style should he get into a rhythm. Though coming up in weight, Garcia has slight advantages in height and reach over Davis, and he is unlikely to be phased by the pro-Davis crowd. 

We’ve seen Garcia can rise above the odds and deliver a terrific performance as an underdog. With one eye on a much bigger fish down the road, Davis has to be 100% focused with a capable opponent ready to play spoiler once again.

Gervonta Davis vs Hector Garcia boxing prediction and best bet

Prediction: Gervonta Davis ML

With Shakur Stevenson out of the division, Garcia is among the best at junior lightweight. He has plenty of tenacity and guts, but being a straight-up pressure fighter plodding along to close the distance spells doom against Davis.

For starters, Garcia will fail to bully Davis or dictate the pace at any time. There is a chance he steals the first few rounds as Davis shakes off the rust, but there won’t be much to figure out as he’ll be in Davis’ line of fire all night. Romero’s awkwardness slowed Davis down, but Davis took his time and ended the fight with a precise kill shot.

Even in his title-winning effort against Gutierrez, Garcia petered out after eight rounds and was content to hang on as he was getting lit up by the champ. A big reason for that was that he keeps his hands low and doesn’t employ much head movement once he is in the pocket. That’s a recipe for disaster.

Now, as far as a recipe for success, you’ll have to look elsewhere. Unless you’re willing to put down this month’s rent for $100 betting on Davis, we’ll head to the props for a better value 

Prediction: Davis moneyline (-1,450 at FanDuel)

Best Bet: Davis KO/TKO (-380)

Though Davis’ fights last 4.22 rounds, his last five fights are lasting more than twice that at almost 9.5 rounds. It isn’t that surprising considering he’s faced better opponents in that stretch than over the entirety of his career prior, so an early stoppage might not be an easy pick.

We have to give Garcia credit here, but a stoppage is inevitable. We’re taking Davis to do just that and take our odds from something not worth our while to a decent, yet still high, -380.

Prediction: Gervonta Davis By KO/TKO (-380 at FanDuel)

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