Amanda Serrano headlines a homecoming in San Juan as she defends her featherweight titles against late substitute Reina Tellez.
Serrano is a massive -2000 favorite in the boxing odds, while Tellez is a +900 underdog. Here are my Amanda Serrano vs. Reina Tellez predictions and free betting picks for Saturday, January 3.
Serrano vs Tellez prediction and pick
- My fight prediction: Serrano moneyline (-2000 at DraftKings)
- My best bet: Serrano moneyline (-2000 at DraftKings)
Fight analysis
After two losses to rival Katie Taylor, with the most recent one being rather definitive, Amanda Serrano is returning to featherweight, where she hopes to bounce back in front of a home crowd against an opponent that should gauge how much is left in the future Hall of Fame fighters’ gas tank.
Reina Tellez is coming into this fight on short notice when original opponent Erica Cruz failed a pre-fight drug test, and the undefeated Texan is taking a significant step up in class despite a respectable 13-0-1 record.
Serrano is starting to show the wear of a long career after her grueling series with Taylor. While the argument can be made that she won the first two fights, Taylor easily beat her last July, as Serrano came in with a flawed game plan and couldn’t summon her trademark aggression that had defined her legendary career.
Taylor is an excellent fighter and one of the best in the sport, so it isn’t a real indicator that Serrano is no longer elite, but it does mean that she’s firmly in the post-prime phase of her career.
If Tellez is going to pull off a huge upset, she’ll have to hope Serrano is closer to being finished. While Tellez has good hand speed and is a high-volume fighter, Serrano remains one of the best punchers in women’s boxing and is tactically sound.
Tellez needs to use the ring and keep the fight on the outside, firing off flurries and evading Serrano’s counters, all while protecting her body when they tie up in a clinch.
I don’t believe Serrano is at her best anymore, but I also think the same tactical faux pas against Taylor wouldn’t cost her too dearly here if she were to repeat it.
Serrano at featherweight is the best fighter in the division by leaps and bounds, and she should be motivated in front of the fans in San Juan and eager to prove she can still turn in a strong performance after back-to-back losses. Serrano is the pick.
Best best analysis
Serrano is a better puncher at featherweight and is in her natural weight class, and Tellez is going to look overmatched rather quickly. As we get closer to fight night, betting on a Serrano knockout win might be a better option.
Amanda Serrano vs Reina Tellez odds
| Method of victory | Amanda Serrano | Reina Tellez |
|---|---|---|
| Win outright | -2000 | +900 |
| Win by KO/TKO | -155 | +2200 |
| Win by points or decision | +140 | +1400 |
| Draw | +3000 | +3000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel as of December 31.
Amanda Serrano vs Reina Tellez tale of the tape
| Serrano | Tellez | |
|---|---|---|
| 37 | Age | 22 |
| 5-foot-6 | Height | 5-foot |
| Featherweight | Weight Class | Featherweight |
| 65 inches | Reach | 64 inches |
| 47-3-1 | Record | 13-0-1 |
| 30 | Wins by KO | 4 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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