The English Premier League championship was a two-team affair for the majority of last season – and oddsmakers are expecting a similar result for 2019-20 as the top-flight England league kicks off play Aug. 9 with an encounter between defending runners-up Liverpool and newly promoted Norwich.
Liverpool finished a single point behind league winners Manchester City, with third-place Chelsea coming in a whopping 25 points behind the second-place club.
With the EPL generating plenty of betting interest annually, here's a comprehensive breakdown of the teams to watch – and the teams to avoid – as England's top domestic soccer clubs prepare for the 28th season of the Premier League:
NOTES AND TRENDS
• Little has changed on either roster of the top two teams in the league – and that bodes well for Liverpool, which came oh-so-close to ending its lengthy English Premier League title drought. A Champions League triumph provided plenty of solace for Liverpool fans, but you have to like their odds of prevailing in 2019-20 (+225) with precious little differentiating them from Man City – and with last year's EPL winners likely shifting their focus to winning their first Champions League title.
• Which EPL team saw the most goals scored in its 38 games last season? It wasn't Manchester City or Liverpool; surprisingly, it was Bournemouth, whose regular season produced a whopping 126 goals (56 for, 70 against). Ranking seventh in total goals scored and third from the bottom in goals against is the perfect recipe for a strong Over play – and there could be an opportunity for some early-season profit on the O2.5 even if Bournemouth see slight reductions in either tally.
• How Chelsea and Arsenal fare against each other in league play could go a long way in deciding which team winds up claiming a top-5 spot – and if recent history continues, they could wind up costing each other a shot at a top-4 berth. The sides, both listed at +125 to finish inside the top four, have been tied after regulation in five of their previous six meetings – and settling for single points again in 2019-20 could pave the way for Manchester United to outpoint both and place fourth or better (+110)
TEAMS TO FAVOR
• Speaking of Man United, you could do worse than tossing a few bucks on the 13-time English Premier League champions to find themselves on top of the table during the holiday break. Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s club will play four of its first six games against elite EPL clubs at Old Trafford, and won't face a legitimately difficult stretch until after the Christmas hiatus, when they'll visit Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea and Tottenham in a 10-week span. Man United is at +1600 to be leading the league at Christmas.
• There are two sets of odds that should be quite popular with regard to futures bets, and they come in the form of a 1-2 forecast. Given the gap between Man City/Liverpool and the rest of the EPL field, it would surprise no one to see these two teams repeat their result from a season ago – and a Man City-Liverpool forecast is worth +125. Conversely, if you like Liverpool to win the EPL championship and Man City to place second, you'll do slightly better at +275.
TEAMS TO FADE
• You'd have a difficult time finding Wolverhampton fans who aren't thrilled about seeing their club go from promotion to a seventh-place showing in the EPL in the span of a season. But following up that incredible performance could prove difficult for Wolves, who will need to balance their domestic schedule with participation in the UEFA Europa League – a tournament featuring many of the best teams in the world. We're all the way off Wolves at +333 to finish as the top team outside the EPL's Big Six.
• The biggest question mark heading into the season could very well be Brighton, who barely avoided relegation in 2018-19 but have yet to fix their biggest problem from a year ago: an offense that produced a meager 35 goals in 38 games. Installing a new, young manager in Graham Potter might just be enough to shake this team's tree, but we're not confident that Brighton will pay off on its -225 odds to dodge the relegation zone yet again in 2019-20.
TOP 4 VALUE PLAY
• It wasn't long ago that Leicester City stunned the soccer world by winning the English Premier League championship. And while their fortunes haven't been nearly as bright since then, there's a lot to like about the 2019-20 version of this club. Despite having to deal with the tragic death of their owner and a mid-season coaching change, Leicester still pulled out a ninth-place finish – and there's plenty of talent to go around, led by James Maddison and Jamie Vardy. They're decent value at +1600 to finish top-4.
RELEGATION VALUE PLAY
• There isn't a better value play for relegation in our opinion than the team we discussed above in our "Teams to Fade" section. Brighton have bettors scurrying for other options after struggling to do much of anything on offense last season. And with Aston Villa looking ready to compete fresh off their promotion, and better things expected out of both 15th-place Burnley and 16th-place Southampton, it could be a long season for Brighton supporters. Brighton at +187 to be relegated is a good play.
TOP GOAL-SCORER VALUE PLAY
• There will likely be plenty of wagers placed on the top three betting options to lead the EPL in goals in 2019-20. Tottenham's Harry Kane enters the season at +450 to secure the goal-scoring crown, with Man City's Sergio Aguero and Liverpool's Mohamed Salah both listed at +500. But we like the fourth guy on the list – Arsenal superstar Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, who finished tied for the league lead with 22 goals and scored once every 124 minutes played. He's a strong play at +900.
OUTRIGHT VALUE PLAY
• It's difficult to envision a team other than Manchester City or Liverpool claiming the title, given that neither team has made major changes – but if there's one team that could pull off the double upset, it's Tottenham. While it lost all four of its league matches to Man City and Liverpool, each defeat came by a single goal – and with little turnover in the offseason, plus a (hopefully) healthy Harry Kane, Spurs could surprise some and pay off on their +1600 odds to win the championship.
Here are the full odds to win the 2019-20 EPL Championship, courtesy of BetAmerica:
Manchester City -160
Liverpool +230
Tottenham +1,600
Manchester United +2,500
Chelsea +2,500
Arsenal +4,000
Wolverhampton +12,500
Everton +15,000
Leicester City +25,000
Newcastle +25,000
West Ham +50,000
Southampton +75,000
Watford +75,000
Crystal Palace +100,000
Bournemouth +100,000
Brighton +100,000
Aston Villa +150,000
Burnley +150,000
Norwich City +250,000
Sheffield United +250,000
Odds may vary. Eligibility restrictions apply. See website for details.
