Astros vs Rays ALDS betting picks and predictions: Tampa relying on bullpen to save season in Game 4

It almost seems appropriate that the Tampa Bay Rays’ will rely on their bullpen with their season on the line. Almost. Meanwhile, the Astros counter with some dude name Justin Verlander. From the first pitch to the final out, we break down the best ways to wager the odds for Game 4 of the ALDS between the Astros and Rays. **video

HOUSTON ASTROS AT TAMPA BAY RAYS (+210, 7.5 @ BETAMERICA)

QUICK HITTER

Going up against Verlander in an elimination game is less than ideal for the Rays. The devastating right-hander has allowed just one run on eight hits in 19.1 innings over three starts against the Rays this season. Tampa also ranked 24th in the MLB in first inning runs per game this season.

Meanwhile, the Rays’ reliever getting tabbed with the “opener” moniker for this one is Diego Castillo. The right-hander is a fireballer who can hit 100 on the gun with unfair movement for a pitch that fast. Castillo pitched to a 3.41 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP this season and has been fantastic so far this postseason. He has allowed no runs on three hits, with four strikeouts and one walk in 3.2 innings of work.

Game 4 to have zeros on the board after the opening frame is a good bet.

Pick: Run in First Inning - No (-115)

FIRST FIVE INNINGS

Castillo will have the ball for three-to-six outs depending on his effectiveness and then it will likely be a matchup based affair for manager Kevin Cash. Luckily, for the Rays, they ranked first in the Bigs in bullpen ERA during the regular season at 3.66 and second in WHIP a 1.20. And seeing a new pitcher each time up can be difficult for hitters.

Want more fun Verlander stats? He has a 2.66 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP games this season and 1.41 Ks per inning in the first five innings of his starts this season. And he faces a lineup that struck out more than any other team that advanced to the division series.

This number is low, but it’s hard to justify taking the Over.

Pick: Under 4 First Five Innings (-110)

TEAM/PLAYER PROP

We’re going to have a little fun with today’s team/player prop. While the Astros’ lineup is full of talent from top to bottom, the guy who seems to keep coming up with clutch hit after clutch hit is outfielder George Springer. And by clutch hits, we mean dingers. Since the Astros runs to the to the 2017 world series championship Springer has hit 10 postseason bombs. That’s the most over that stretch. He hasn’t gone deep yet this postseason and we love the value for him to go yard in this elimination game.

Pick: George Springer To Hit a Home Run (+300)

FULL GAME TOTAL

As we mentioned before, it can be tough for hitters who have to see a new pitcher every time they step to the plate. But then again, not every team is the Astros. Not only is their lineup tremendous and deep (they ranked first in batting average and OPS during the regular season), but they do something very well that can really throw a wrench into the plans of a team trying to use only relievers: take walks. The Astros had the best eye in baseball this season taking 645 walks. That was 26 more than the next closest team.

To make it even more difficult for the Rays, Houston struck out less than anyone in the MLB. It’s asking a lot of every Rays’ reliever to be “on” today. The Astros will eventually get guys on base and get a few big knocks to send this one Over late.

Pick: Over 7.5

FULL GAME SIDE

The total write-up leads perfectly into our side play. While the Rays are banking on all their relievers being good, the Astros need to rely on just one guy. And that guy is one of the best. Just a few more Verlander stats then we’re done, we swear.

The Astros are 23-6 in his last 29 road starts and the Cy-Young hopeful is 11-2 with a 2.82 ERA and a 0.76 WHIP when away from home this season. He’s also been spectacular in the postseason for the Astros. Since joining the Astros in 2017, Verlander has a 2.51 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP and is limiting opponents to a .164 batting average in 61 postseason innings.

While the Rays are relying on a bunch of relievers.

Pick: Astros RL -1.5 (-150)

Pages related to this topic