I came up empty yesterday on the home run trio despite some decent offensive output from Bryan Reynolds and Alec Bohm. There are some great hitting spots today on the small slate that are worthy of some dinger bets and MLB player props.
Right-handed bats in Fenway have a big edge with 20-mph winds blowing out to left, and Bryce Harper gets a reverse-splits lefty, which means lefty-on-lefty value with winds blowing out to right field.
These are my favorite home run props for Thursday, June 18.
Best MLB home run props today
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Kazuma Okamoto
Bryce Harper
Home run pick: Kazuma Okamoto (+476)
There are some great hitting conditions for right-handed bats at Fenway today, with 21-mph winds blowing out toward the Monster in left field. Sonny Gray has been fortunate when it comes to home runs at home this season, allowing just one over 31+ innings, but he owned the fifth-worst HR/FB rate in baseball among qualified starters last year. Regression is coming.
Kazuma Okamoto isn't hitting for average right now, but he leads the team with 15 home runs, owns a low groundball rate (35% over the last 14 days), and paces the club in hard-hit rate. He doesn't have the fastest bat on the team, but when he makes contact, he's squaring the ball up at a 34% clip, which ranks among the Top 50 hitters in baseball.
This is one of the best +EV home run props on the board today, alongside George Springer at +490, with a fair price closer to +410.
- Time: 1:35 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NESN, Sportsnet
Home run pick: Bryce Harper (+437)
Today, we're getting a lefty-on-lefty price on a Bryce Harper home run, but it isn't a typical LvL matchup.
Sean Manaea gives up HRs to lefties at the same rate as right-handed hitters, and left-handed bats are hitting for a better average vs. him since 2024. Harper has tagged him once in the 15 at-bats between the two, where the All-Star hitter is sporting a .400 AVG.
Harper broke a five-game hitless streak yesterday but had been tearing up June with a 1.060 OPS before that with two homers. His 42.6% hard-hit rate leads the Phillies this year and ranks 18th in baseball.
The 14-mph winds will only help the lefty swinger with a 40% pull rate.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NBCSP, SNY
- HR picks: 16-116, -34.26 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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