Can you feel it? The sizzling of great tailgate food. The roar of a raucous student section. The fight songs. And all the program-specific traditions that make college football so great. **video
Rubbing Howard’s Rock, Ralphie’s Run, The Best Damn Band in the Land, Boomer Sooner and the War Eagle, just to name a few. And now, betting on Alabama in Week 1 is among those great college football customs.
Yup! The Triple Option is back! I’m incredibly excited to bring this column back for a third straight season. But first a little disclaimer. We’re dropping the Heisman odds and good eats sections this year to save me some time, due to some expanded responsibilities this season. But if you have any tailgating food requests or just want to share some of your own hit me up on Twitter!
OK, back to Bama and building our bankrolls with some awesome college football picks.
Like any great tradition the Tide have been featured in the Week 1 edition of this column in each season of its existence. And here’s why: nobody, and I mean nobody, gets his team better prepared to start a season than Nick Saban.
Alabama is a remarkable 12-0 straight up and 10-1 against the spread (one was a game against FCS Western Carolina that was not lined) in Week 1 since Saban took over the program back in 2007. And for the most part, these games haven’t been close.
The Tide have scored an average of 40.6 points per game, with an average margin of victory of 28.9 points per game. Funnily enough, the spread for Alabama’s opener against Duke is 32.5, which is taking place at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
But that number isn’t scaring me away considering Duke is facing a big transition year. Former quarterback Daniel Jones is now a New York Giant and the defense that ranked 77th in total yards and 105th against the rush a year ago isn’t getting any better. Don’t overthink this.
Pick: Alabama -32.5
VIRGINIA CAVALIERS AT PITTSBURGH PANTHERS (+2.5, 46.5)
There aren’t too many occasions where you would call a Week 1 matchup in college football a “must win,” but this is pretty close for Virginia. Many pundits (including myself) have predicted 2019 to be a breakout campaign for Bronco Mendenhall’s Cavaliers. But that all needs to start with a win Saturday night in Pittsburgh.
The Cavs were in a great position last year to win the ACC Coastal division before a disappointing 23-13 home defeat as 7-point favorites at the hands of this same Panthers team. Virginia couldn’t get anything going on offense thanks to a defensive line that sacked Bryce Perkins five times. And they couldn’t contain running back Darrin Hall, who gashed them 229 yards and three scores, which was a little odd considering the Cavs had the fourth-best rush defense in the ACC.
However, Hall is gone, and the Pitt offense will have to rely more on quarterback Kenny Pickett, who completed just 58 percent of his passes last season. He’ll be up against a UVA defense that was the 14th best in the country in terms of yards per game and could be even better this season with star corner Bryce Hall leading the way.
But the key to this game is Perkins, who for my money is the best quarterback in the ACC not named Trevor Lawrence. Perkins is what you want when they say “dual-threat” quarterback. He can run. He can pass. He can do it all. But most importantly, he can take over a game.
Here’s a list of quarterbacks last season that completed more than 64 percent of their passes, throw for more than 2,000 yards, rush for another 900 and have 30 or more total touchdowns: Kyler Murray and Perkins. That’s it. That’s the list.
To make matters worse for Pitt, the defensive front that did a good job against Virginia last season has lost its two most disruptive players. Mix in the revenge for the Cavs and this one shouldn’t be that close.
Pick: Virginia -2.5
FRESNO STATE BULLDOGS AT USC TROJANS (-13.5, 52.5)
Sorry, Week 1 is a bit of a chalk-fest on my end. But that’s how Week 1 goes in college football betting, and this line is too good to pass up.
Everyone knows about the Trojans struggles last season, particularly as a favorite. But everyone also knows that talent isn’t the issue at Southern Cal. Clay Helton’s seat is as hot as any coach’s in the country and he knows it. So, he’ll be coaching for his job from the opening kickoff, while J.T. Daniels will have something to prove as well after winning an open quarterback competition in camp.
Meanwhile, this line is this short likely due to how successful Fresno State has been the past few seasons. The Bulldogs are 22-6 in the Jeff Tedford era, but are dealing with some massive turnover heading into this season. Fresno State returns only nine starters and just three on offense.
The talent gap should be apparent here. Jump on this line now before it gets to -14.
Pick: USC -13.5
MONDAY NIGHT BONUS PICK
NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH AT LOUISVILLE CARDINALS (+18, 54.5)
The Irish made their first appearance in the College Football Playoff after a 12-0 regular season, before getting throttled by Clemson in the national semifinal and it will be a tough task to return, considering the talent that has moved on at the skill positions.
That said, Notre Dame has two things going for it this season: a defense that should be even better, and Ian Book. The senior quarterback completed 68.2 percent of his passes and had 19 total touchdowns in just nine games.
And what can be said about Louisville? Well, last year UL gave dumpster fires a bad name. The onus is now Scott Satterfield to turn around the program, but it’s going to take some time. Juwan Pass is back under center, and the defense returns nine starters.
Unfortunately, those players were part of a team that ranked 109th in total yards, 122nd in points scored on offense and 122nd in total yards, and 128th in total yards in points allowed. Oh, and Louisville covered just one game all last season. One.
Pick: Notre Dame -18
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
21+. NJ only. Odds may vary. Eligibility restrictions apply. See website for details.
