The red-hot Minnesota Twins host the Boston Red Sox at Target Field tonight.
Even with 10 consecutive wins, the Twins are still fourth in the surprisingly competitive AL Central, and Friday’s game won’t be a walk in the park. Boston is 11-5 on the highway, and Minnesota starter Chris Paddack has struggled to begin the season.
Here are our Red Sox vs. Twins predictions and MLB picks for May 3.
Red Sox vs Twins prediction
My best bet
Wilyer Abreu Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-125 at BetMGM)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Boston Red Sox outfielder Wilyer Abreu has mashed against righties since arriving in the majors, boasting a .412 wOBA, 162 wRC+, and .205 ISO across 152 plate appearances. Tonight, he lands in a cushy matchup against Minnesota Twins righty Chris Paddack.
Paddack has surrendered a .414 wOBA to left-handed hitters this season, and his fastball velocity dropped to 92.8 mph last time out after averaging 94.5 mph through his first four starts of the season. The 28-year-old has negative pitch values on his three other offerings, so a decline in velocity on the heater is even more concerning.
Abreu projects to bat fourth in the Boston lineup again Friday and has Rafael Devers and Tyler O’Neill setting the table for prime RBI opportunities.
Returning to Paddack, a seven-inning gem against the basement-dwelling White Sox skews his stat line, and he hasn’t held up against formidable offenses. With Boston sporting a ninth-ranked 107 wRC+ and fifth-ranked .172 ISO against righties, I’m expecting Abreu and the rest of the heart of the order to fill up the boxscore.
Red Sox vs Twins same-game parlay (SGP)
Red Sox moneyline
Chris Paddack Over 5.5 hits allowed
Wilyer Abreu 2+ total bases
Continuing with the Paddack fade, I think we’re landing a fair price on the Boston moneyline given the pitching mismatch.
Red Sox starter Tanner Houck has been sharp through six starts with a .160 ERA and 2.58 xFIP, plus his strikeout-to-walk ratio is up to 8.2 after posting a 2.41 mark last season. Houck isn’t going to spin a Cy Young case all season, but a lot of his success is sustainable in the short term, especially since he abandoned his four-seam fastball.
There’s also an edge with these +400 odds because DraftKings has this same-game parlay priced at +335. The difference checks out as a positive expected value of 21%.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Red Sox vs Twins odds
Red Sox vs Twins live odds
Red Sox vs Twins opening odds
- Run line: Boston +1.5 (-210) | Minnesota -1.5 (-186)
- Moneyline: Boston +101 | Minnesota -109
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-100) | Under 8.5 (-112)
Red Sox vs Twins spread and Over/Under analysis
- It isn’t surprising to see a slight move to the Minnesota side of this moneyline, with the Twins rolling along a 10-game winning streak.
- Pinnacle opened this game with Minnesota listed at -109, and the Twins are priced at -120 as of Friday afternoon.
- The total has dropped from an opening 8.5 to 8.0 at the majority of shops, and the Under is still carrying the higher vig.
- Sports Interaction also has an outlier O/U of 7.5 available, with Over juiced to -125 as of Friday afternoon.
Red Sox vs Twins trend
Abreu has gone Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI in seven of the past nine games where Boston has faced a right-handed starter. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Twins
Red Sox vs Twins game info
| Location: | Target Field, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Friday, 5-3-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NESN, Bally North |
| Red Sox starting pitcher: | TBD (X-X, X.XX ERA) |
| Twins starting pitcher: | Chris Paddack (2-1, 5.89 ERA) |
Red Sox vs Twins latest injuries
Red Sox vs Twins weather
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