This is the second straight game to open the WNBA season between Seattle and Minnesota, with the Lynx cruising to a comfortable win in the season opener on Tuesday night. The newly formed superteam trio in Seattle will be hoping to get their revenge on Friday, May 17, but the WNBA odds have this one as a virtual pick ‘em.
My WNBA picks and Storm vs. Lynx predictions believe that Seattle’s top talent will continue to struggle against Minnesota’s superior continuity.
Storm vs Lynx predictions
My best bet
Lynx moneyline (+110 at bet365)
My analysis
After seeing what life was like with Jewell Loyd as a solo star surrounded by rookies and other young players, the Seattle Storm decided one season in the wilderness was enough.
They went all-in this season on a new star trio of Loyd, Skylar Diggins-Smith, and Nneka Ogwumike. Their season opener against the same Minnesota Lynx team they’ll play again on Friday did not go according to plan, however.
The Lynx have some new additions of their own like Courtney Williams (the latest entry in Minnesota’s endless point guard carousel) but they’re also relying on a veteran core with an established identity built around one of the W’s five best players in Napheesa Collier. Their continuity stood in stark contrast to what we saw from Seattle, who looked very much like a team just learning to play with one another.
The Storm got out of the gates quickly, with a 28-point first quarter featuring 10 assisted buckets. But Seattle combined for just 36 points and four assists in the remaining three quarters. This wasn’t just a matter of poor shooting (though there was plenty of that) it was fundamentally obvious that this team has not yet learned to trust the pass or each other.
And perhaps that should have been obvious when looking at this mix of players. Jewell just finished her first season as the true number one option, forced to play a decidedly inefficient brand of hero ball, it could take her a minute to sublimate her game into the greater whole. Nneka has been the offensive centerpiece of every previous team she’s been on, and Diggins-Smith is another on-ball player who is also coming off a lost 2023 season.
Even if there is no positional overlap these three are not the most natural fit either, because of the immense scoring usage that all three players carried prior to this superteam experiment. Only Diggins-Smith has much of a track record as a table setter, but even she never had assist totals that competed with the league’s top true point guards.
Perhaps most troubling was the relative shot charts between the two teams. The Storm took just nine threes, many of them off the dribble attempts by Loyd, and went 1-9. The Lynx didn’t have a particularly good outside shooting game relative to their capabilities, but they went 7-24. Just taking 15 more threes than your opponent is a strong way to win the math game, particularly as comparatively so many more of Minnesota’s were spot-ups after kick outs.
Not only do the Lynx have superior continuity and the best player in the matchup in Collier, but they now also have homecourt advantage.
It’s difficult to beat the same team twice in a row, but the Storm look so far from a finished product on offense I think the Lynx are easily a better than 50% chance to do so. It’s only been one game for Seattle, but its superstar mix looked closer to this year’s Phoenix Suns than last year’s New York Liberty.
Storm vs Lynx same-game parlay (SGP)
Lynx moneyline
Diamond Miller Under 8.5 points
Diamond Miller Under 3.5 rebounds
Diamond Miller had a promising rookie campaign, but the offseason additions of veteran guards Courtney Williams and Natisha Hiedeman could see her minutes drop this season.
In the opener on Tuesday, she played just 13 minutes, less than half of last season’s average, and added just two points on five shots. With decreased court time comes decreased opportunity, and a new rhythm Miller will need to adapt to this season.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Storm vs Lynx odds
Storm vs Lynx live odds
Get the latest Storm vs Lynx WNBA odds for tonight.
Storm vs Lynx opening odds
- Spread: Seattle -2 | Minnesota +2
- Moneyline: Seattle -122| Minnesota +107
- Over/Under: Over 162.5 | Under 162.5
Storm vs Lynx spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Storm opened as high as -2.5 point favorites against the Lynx, but that’s fallen to -1.5 almost everywhere as of Friday morning.
- The Storm are 0-4-1 against the spread in their last five games.
- Friday’s total came in between 161.5 and 163.5, but action on the Over has steadily pushed that to 164.5 at most sportsbooks.
- The Over is 6-0 in Minnesota’s last six home games.
Storm vs Lynx trend
The Storm are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Storm vs. Lynx.
Storm vs Lynx game info
| Location: | Target Center, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Friday, 5-17, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ION |
Storm vs Lynx latest injuries
Storm: None.
Lynx: Dorka Juhasz (out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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