The Cleveland Guardians will open a key series against a division rival as they host the Minnesota Twins at Progressive Field tonight.
The Guardians (27-17) currently lead the AL Central and are favored in the MLB odds tonight over the Twins (24-19), who are just 2.5 games back in third place.
Our Twins vs. Guardians predictions feature two young pitchers, one of whom has far more experience in the majors and has us backing the home team. Find out more in our MLB picks for May 17.
Twins vs Guardians prediction
My best bet
Guardians moneyline (-120 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The Cleveland Guardians may hold the lead in the AL Central, but many predictive models see the Twins as their toughest competition for the division title. For instance, FanGraphs still has the Minnesota Twins as the favorite to win the division, predicting them to have a 52.8% chance of finishing first by season's end, compared to just 21.9% for the Guardians.
Yet so far this year, it’s been Cleveland that’s the class of the division. The Guardians have the best run differential (+48), and survived a tough 16-game stretch without a single off day, going 8-8 before finally getting to rest on Thursday.
The Guardians may be better than their already strong record suggests. Cleveland has spent most of the season on the road so far, playing 26 of their 44 games away from home. Tonight, Cleveland gets to enjoy some home cooking, and after the day off, the team — outside of Steven Kwan, who is recovering from a strained hamstring — should be healthy, rested, and fully available.
The Cleveland lineup, which is averaging 4.75 runs per game, will go to bat against the 23-year-old Simeon Woods Richardson tonight. After making one appearance for the Twins in each of the last two seasons, Woods-Richardson might now be up in the majors for good, having put up a 3.24 ERA over 25 innings in five starts.
It’s a promising beginning for Woods Richardson, but he isn’t dominating MLB hitters just yet. So far, he has pitched to a 1.240 WHIP, and isn’t a particularly dominant strikeout pitcher, averaging a little under one punchout per inning. The right-hander is also coming off his worst start of the season, allowing five runs in 4 1/3 innings on May 11 against Toronto.
The Guardians will counter with 26-year-old Triston McKenzie, who Cleveland is relying on to be a mainstay in the rotation this season.
So far, the returns have been good: McKenzie has pitched to a 3.54 ERA over eight starts, with the one big question mark being his control. He’s walking 5.3 batters per nine innings, though he has kept that number under control in recent starts, walking three batters or fewer in each of his last five outings.
Over that span, McKenzie has thrown to a 2.28 ERA and should have a clear edge over Woods Richardson tonight. With Cleveland rested and playing at home, I’m taking the Guardians to open the series with a win.
Twins vs Guardians same-game parlay (SGP)
Guardians moneyline
Over 8
Josh Naylor to record a hit
For my same-game parlay, I’m pairing the Guardians money line with the full game Over. These are two capable offenses and neither pitcher has overwhelming stuff, so I'm expecting a high-scoring affair.
In addition, I’ll take Josh Naylor to pick up at least one hit. Naylor has successfully recorded a hit in five of his last seven games and is slashing a solid .257 against righties this year.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Twins vs Guardians odds
Twins vs Guardians live odds
Twins vs Guardians opening odds
- Run line: Minnesota +1.5 (-202) | Cleveland -1.5 (+180)
- Moneyline: Minnesota +106 | Cleveland -115
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-106) | Under 8 (-106)
Twins vs Guardians spread and Over/Under analysis
- Cleveland opened as a -115 favorite, but the consensus ML is now Guardians -120.
- The Guardians have made over 8.5 units for ML backers this year.
- Cleveland has been especially tough at home this year, boasting a 12-6 SU record at Progressive Field.
- The consensus Over/Under is now 8.5, though you can still find a flat 8.0 at some books.
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Twins vs Guardians trend
The Guardians are 4-1 in McKenzie’s last five starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. Guardians
Twins vs Guardians game info
| Location: | Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH |
| Date: | Friday, 5-17-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Apple TV+ |
| Twins starting pitcher: | Simeon Woods Richardson (1-0, 3.24 ERA) |
| Guardians starting pitcher: | Triston McKenzie (2-3, 3.54 ERA) |
Twins vs Guardians latest injuries
Twins vs Guardians weather
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