The Houston Astros are beginning to roll, taking seven of their last eight and riding a five-game winning streak into the weekend. Now, they’ll put their form to the test against the toughest opponent they’ve drawn in a week and a half when they face the Milwaukee Brewers.
Can Hunter Brown continue improving against one of the strongest offenses in baseball, or will it be Freddy Peralta’s day to post a bounce-back performance against a strong offense?
Let's dive right into our MLB picks with Brewers vs. Astros predictions on Friday, May 17.
Brewers vs Astros prediction
My best bet
Over 8 (-108 at DraftKings)
My analysis
The Milwaukee Brewers have done a complete 180 this season, posting solid numbers at the plate while uncertainty mounts within their pitching staff. For years, this was a middling group of hitters that supported a bona fide pitching factory, and now they’ve come out and posted one of the three best offensive starts in the league by wRC+.
Milwaukee hasn’t slowed one bit over the last two weeks, slashing .260/.331/.443 and with some sustained power which is totally legitimate. Its walk and strikeout rates have dropped a hair, if there’s any reason to doubt this team, and it continues to put a ton of balls on the ground at an even higher rate.
That leads me to Hunter Brown, who has been a solid ground ball pitcher for three years at the big league level. Those ground balls have come back with a ton of interest, and while the expected batting average wasn’t all that troublesome a season ago it’s been very high at .272 this year. Given the Houston Astros are just 26th in Outs Above Average in the infield, there’s little reason to believe Brown’s luck on ground balls will turn, and with the Brewers hitting .276 versus ground-ball pitchers this season I think he’s in for a rough one here.
On the flip side, we’re beginning to see some regression hit Freddy Peralta after running into a string of bad offenses to begin the season. The Astros are striking out in just 17.9% of their plate appearances over the past two weeks and lead the league in this category for the season. That should present some problems for Peralta, who’s heavily reliant upon the strikeout with his poor batted-ball stats that have remained problematic over the course of his career.
I’m not the biggest believer in the Astros this season, but this is a great matchup for them offensively. The Brewers should also find some success against a struggling ground-baller, making the Over a great play.
Brewers vs Astros same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 8
Freddy Peralta Under 6.5 strikeouts
William Contreras 2+ total bases
I did toy with the idea of building this at DraftKings, where we can bet on some more pitching props, but the price on Peralta’s strikeouts is significantly better on FanDuel given it’ll cost -150 to throw it in a same-game parlay at DK.
With that, I do think this is a sneaky great bet. Peralta’s been one of the top strikeout arms in baseball, but the combination of the best team in the league at limiting strikeouts and a lineup finding its form over the last couple of weeks should make for a short outing. Peralta hasn’t gone past the sixth in any of his starts, either, which is par for the course for him – and further reason to believe in the Under, which has cashed in two of his last four starts.
Then, I’m going to back the red-hot William Contreras to go for two or more total bases. He’s done this in eight of his last nine games, and over that span has 17 hits in 36 at-bats. He’s also surprisingly one of the most extreme ground-ball generators in the lineup at over 51%, making this a splendid matchup.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Brewers vs Astros odds
Brewers vs Astros live odds
Brewers vs Astros opening odds
- Run line: Milwaukee -1.5 (+140) | Houston +1.5 (-165)
- Moneyline: Milwaukee -120 | Houston +100
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-110)
Brewers vs Astros spread and Over/Under analysis
- The line here has been rather funky, with the Astros opening up around -110 and briefly shooting all the way up to +100 before the line swung all the way back as heavy as -116 before settling back around -110 early on Friday afternoon.
- The total has also fluctuated quite a bit between eight and 8.5 runs, with a strong push towards the Over as the day has gone on.
- DraftKings is reporting that 58% of the bets and 81% of the handle are on the Over, while 68% of the tickets and a lighter 64% of the cash are on the Brewers to win.
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Brewers vs Astros trend
The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 39 games (+9.80 Units / 23% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Astros
Brewers vs Astros game info
| Location: | Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Friday, 5-17-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Wisconsin, SCHN |
| Brewers starting pitcher: | Freddy Peralta (3-1, 3.63 ERA) |
| Astros starting pitcher: | Hunter Brown (0-4, 7.79 ERA) |
Brewers vs Astros latest injuries
Brewers vs Astros weather
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