The Los Angeles Dodgers (29-17) fell 7-2 against the Cincinnati Reds (19-25) in Game 1 of the series and will look for a quick rebound tonight.
According to MLB odds, the Dodgers are -220 and the total is set at 8.5. With two struggling starters taking the mound, my Reds vs. Dodgers predictions are expecting a high-scoring affair at Chavez Ravine.
Find out more in my MLB picks for Friday, May 17.
Reds vs Dodgers prediction
My best bet
Over 8.5 (-105 at DraftKings)
My analysis
If the Los Angeles Dodgers want to avoid a three-game losing streak, they’ll need the bats to come alive after posting just three hits in a 7-2 loss against the Cincinnati Reds on Thursday.
The lineup is littered with stars like Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani, and Freddie Freeman, and they have a 127 wRC+ (second) and .341 wOBA (third) against right-handed pitching, so a rebound can be expected sooner rather than later.
Cincinnati’s pitching looked good on Thursday night but its bullpen may be taxed after using seven different pitchers. Frankie Montas starts on Friday and there are plenty of worrying signs about his statistical profile.
His 4.30 xERA and 4.65 FIP aren’t great and when you dig a little deeper, things become more harrowing. His K-rate is 18.2%, well off his 23.9% career average, and his walk rate (9.1%) is up 7.9% from his career norm.
Batters simply haven’t been fooled by the veteran’s offerings — after posting a 12.1% swinging strike rate in his career, he’s down to 8.8% in 2024. As a result, batters are making contact (82%) far more frequently (75.4% career), both inside the zone (88.1%) and outside of it (71.9%). All numbers are headed in the wrong direction for someone who isn’t generating swings and misses and is throwing softer than ever before.
Meanwhile, James Paxton's underlying metrics are begging for immediate regression. The left-hander's 5.89 xERA is nearly three and a half points above his actual ERA, and his 4.86 FIP isn’t much better. He’s walked more batters (24) than he’s struck out (22) and has a worrisome 9.6% barrel rate when batters make contact.
Similarly to Montas, he’s throwing softer than ever. After averaging 95.6 mph on his heater throughout his career, the Big Maple is down to a syrupy 93.9 mph in 2024. That’s a huge concern going forward, considering he uses the four-seamer on 62.6% of his offerings but has a .477 xSLG and .412 xWOBA against his go-to pitch.
Both starting pitchers are on the fade list for me, and with the wind blowing out to right field, I’ll snap up the Over.
Reds vs Dodgers same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 9
Montas Over 5.5 hits allowed / Ohtani Over 1.5 total bases
Dodgers -1.5
Looking at Montas’ profile, it’s alarming that he hasn’t been knocked around more — he’s been living in the zone and batters haven’t been swinging and missing at any of his offerings.
The Dodgers should rectify that and I’m especially intrigued by Ohtani tonight. The Japanese slugger has crushed Montas in his career, going 10-for-24 with four home runs, 11 RBI, six walks, and a 1.1450 OPS.
If we’re already taking the Dodgers to do damage, a correlated leg would involve them covering the run line, something they have accomplished in 12 of their last 19 games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Reds vs Dodgers odds
Reds vs Dodgers live odds
Reds vs Dodgers opening odds
- Run line: Cincinnati +1.5 (-105) | Los Angeles -1.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Cincinnati +180 | Los Angeles -225
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-120) | Under 8.5 (+100)
Reds vs Dodgers spread and Over/Under analysis
- LA has won seven of its last eight home games, while Cincinnati is 5-11 SU in its last 16 away games.
- Cincinnati is 10-4 O/U in its last 14 games on the road. The Reds have hit their team total Under in just eight of their last 22 road games.
- Eight of the last 11 meetings between these two teams have gone Over the total.
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Reds vs Dodgers trend
The Dodgers are 16-7-1 O/U at home this season. Find more MLB betting trends for Reds vs. Dodgers
Reds vs Dodgers game info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Friday, 5-17-2024 |
| First pitch: | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Ohio, SportsNet LA |
| Reds starting pitcher: | Frankie Montas (2-3, 4.20 ERA) |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | James Paxton (5-0, 2.58 ERA) |
Reds vs Dodgers latest injuries
Reds vs Dodgers weather
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