The Connecticut Sun aim for a 2-0 start to the 2024 WNBA season when they host the rebuilding Washington Mystics on Friday night.
The Sun shut down the promising Indiana Fever in the season opener Tuesday and remain inside Mohegan Sun Arena, listed as 9-point home favorites against Washington.
The Mystics put a scare in the New York Liberty in their 2024 debut but couldn’t close things out, getting outscored 26-13 in the fourth quarter to lose 85-80 but cover as 11.5-point home underdogs.
My Mystic vs. Sun predictions run down the spread and total for this classic Eastern Conference clash as I give my best WNBA picks for May 17.
Mystics vs Sun predictions
My best bet
Sun -9 (-105 at Caesars)
My analysis
Although the Washington Mystics surprised me with a strong showing at home on Tuesday, that same energy won’t travel to Mohegan Sun Arena tonight.
The thing that kept Washington in that game with New York was turnovers. The Liberty coughed the ball over 18 times, which gifted the Mystics 19 points. Outside of those easy buckets, Washington struggled on offense and finished the night shooting 39.7% in a game played at a quicker pace. Things really came crashing down in the final 10 minutes, with the Mystics scoring only 16 points on 6-for-18 success in the fourth quarter.
Not only do the Connecticut Sun play at a much slower tempo, but they're one of the more disciplined teams in the WNBA. The Sun ranked third in fewest turnovers last season, and even with an overhaul in the backcourt in 2024, Connecticut can limit the damage from those miscues.
The Sun’s strength is a weakness for Washington, with a bevy of talented frontcourt players attacking the rim. Connecticut features DeWanna Bonner, Alyssa Thomas, and Brionna Jones up front and finished 2023 with the second most points in the paint.
The Mystics have veteran Stefanie Dolson and second-year standout Shakira Austin as the lone forwards in the starting five, with Austin limited in minutes as she returns from a hip injury. Behind them, Washington is left to lean on rookie Aaliyah Edwards and Myisha Hines-Allen off the bench.
In the loss to New York, Washington could not contain Liberty’s bigs, as Jonquel Jones and Betnijah Laney-Hamilton combined for 45 of New York’s 85 total points and fueled the second-half comeback.
My WNBA power ratings pump out a projected spread of Connecticut -12.5, which is more than enough to convince me to lay less than 10 points on the home Sun tonight — especially considering Connecticut’s control and advantage inside.
Mystics vs Sun same-game parlay (SGP)
Sun -8.5
Under 158.5
Alyssa Thomas 7+ rebounds
Making WNBA SGPs can be frustrating because not all books offer the full odds menu when creating a same-game parlay. Luckily, bet365 is a little more flexible and offers options around those numbers.
Washington had no business scoring 80 points the other night and will struggle to shoot on the road, especially without those easy buckets off turnovers.
Thomas is projected for around 10 rebounds tonight and her O/U props on boards are ticking up. We’ll play it safe and take the milestone markets of seven or more rebounds.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mystics vs Sun odds
Mystics vs Sun live odds
Get the latest Mystics vs Sun WNBA odds for tonight.
Mystics vs Sun opening odds
- Spread: Washington-9 (-110) | Connecticut +9 (-110)
- Moneyline: Washington +356 | Connecticut -436
- Over/Under: Over 158 (-107) | Under 158 (-109)
Mystics vs Sun spread and Over/Under analysis
• After a strong showing against Indiana, the Sun opened as short as 9-point home favorites for Friday, while some spots opened at -10.5. The market consensus boiled down to Connecticut -9 to -9.5 on Friday morning.
• The Over/Under total hit the board at 158 points and is sitting a little lower at 157.5 O/U on Friday morning. This is a shorter number than what these two teams faced in their season openers, with closing totals of 166.5 and 164.5 O/U.
• Washington starting center Shakira Austin popped up on the injury report as the team treads lightly with her ailing hip. She is listed as probable after playing 20 minutes in the opener. Connecticut guard Moriah Jefferson and center Olivia Nelson-Ododa are game-time decisions for Friday.
Mystics vs Sun trend
The Sun are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games versus Eastern Conference opponents. Find more WNBA betting trends for Mystics vs. Sun.
Mystics vs Sun game info
| Location: | Mohegan Sun Arena, Uncasville, CT |
| Date: | Friday, 5-17, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ION |
Mystics vs Sun latest injuries
Mystics: Shakira Austin C (Probable).
Sun: Moriah Jefferson G (Game-time decision, Olivia Nelson-Ododa C (Game-time decision).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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