Friday’s MLB slate kicks off with a battle at the top of the NL Central, as the Milwaukee Brewers visit the Chicago Cubs to open a three-game set.
The division-leading Brewers are 19-11, a game up on the Cubbies, who still have a couple of games in hand in the early going.
In the first game between these two rivals in 2024, Chicago is pegged as a -126 moneyline favorite in the MLB odds. Will our Brewers vs. Cubs predictions agree?
Read below for my free MLB picks for May 3.
Brewers vs Cubs prediction
My best bet
Contreras Over 0.5 runs (+120 at bet365)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
The Brewers boast one of the best hitting teams in baseball to start the year, ranking Top 4 in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS.
Front and center in that attack is catcher William Contreras. He ranks sixth in the bigs in hitting, with a .345 batting average, while ranking 11th in OPS at .958. His 25 RBIs are tied for fourth in the majors.
Perhaps the most surprising stat is runs scored, where Contreras ranks third with 28 runs through 30 games, trailing only Mookie Betts and Ronald Acuna Jr, who have each plated 29 times.
Contreras picked up a run scored in the Brewers’ last game, a 7-1 win over the Tampa Bay Rays. He has now scored a run in eight of Milwaukee’s last 12 games, and other than a 4-game stretch from April 15-19 where he failed to score a run, Contreras has not gone back-to-back without a run scored in the Brew Crew’s last 25 games.
He’s had almost no experience against Cubs starter Hayden Wesneski, drawing a walk in his lone at-bat against the righty. However, he’s had plenty of success scoring runs against the Cubs. He’s scored a run in each of his last three games against Chicago and has scored at least a run in six of his last nine head-to-head meetings with the North-siders.
Milwaukee’s No. 2 hitter has been given plus odds to score a run Friday. Considering how consistent Contreras has been in crossing home plate so far this season, this is definitely a wager worth sprinkling something on.
Brewers vs Cubs same-game parlay (SGP)
William Contreras Over 0.5 runs
Over 7.5
Hayden Wesneski Under 4.5 strikeouts
The Under has hit in five of the last six meetings, but recent body of work should play a factor in the first meeting of 2024.
Milwaukee has blown by the 7.5-run total set for Friday in six of its last seven outings. The Brewers and their opponents have scored at least 10 runs in five of those seven games.
That includes a pair of games where they surrendered 15 runs in back-to-back games to the Yankees.
Chicago is coming off a 7-6 win over the Mets, and it’s also passed the 7.5-run total in four of its last seven games overall.
Pitching hasn’t necessarily been a strength for either team, with the Cubs 16th in ERA at 3.89, and Milwaukee in 18th at 3.98.
Speaking of pitching, let’s put a bow on this three-legged SGP with Wesneski’s strikeout total, which is set at 4.5.
He has failed to cross that total in three appearances on the season, including in his lone start. Wesneski has only six punchouts on the year in 10.1 innings of work.
In fact, going back to last season, Wesneski hasn’t topped this strikeout total in his last 13 appearances.
Sure, 12 of those stints were in relief, but for a guy who has only touched four innings pitched twice in that stretch, it’s not likely he’ll pick up more strikeouts even if he goes deeper into the game.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Brewers vs Cubs odds
Brewers vs Cubs live odds
Brewers vs Cubs opening odds
- Run line: Milwaukee +110 | Chicago -130
- Moneyline: Milwaukee +1.5 (-210) | Chicago -1.5 (+175)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-120) | Under 7.5 (+100)
Brewers vs Cubs spread and Over/Under analysis
- Milwaukee has lost four of its last six games.
- The Cubs are 3-1 in their last four games as moneyline favorites.
- The Under has cashed in five of the last six head-to-head meetings.
- The Brewers’ Over record is 5-1-1 in their last seven.
Brewers vs Cubs trend
The Brewers have won nine straight day games against NL opponents. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Cubs
Brewers vs Cubs game info
| Location: | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Friday, 5-3-2024 |
| First pitch: | 2:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Wisconsin, Marquee |
| Brewers starting pitcher: | Joe Ross (1-3, 5.40 ERA) |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Hayden Wesneski (2-0, 0.87 ERA) |
Brewers vs Cubs latest injuries
Brewers vs Cubs weather
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