XFL Week 4 odds, betting predictions and picks

The XFL saw a pretty significant scoring boost in Week 3 and with the XFL Week 4 betting odds on the board, is it finally time to start thinking about Overs? With four more games on the XFL schedule, including possibly the best game of the year so far, Andrew Caley dives into the XFL odds and gives his best picks and predictions for this weekend's action.

XFL BETTING TRENDS

Some quick notes through three weeks:

Unders are still 8-4 but Overs finally came back a bit going 2-2 in Week 3, thanks to some added scoring last week. After the first two weeks of the season had an average of just 37.8 combined points per game, last week saw an uptick to 45.8 combined points per game with an average betting total of 43. This week’s average Over/Under total is just above 43 points.

When it comes to the XFL pointspreads, home teams are still the best bet in the XFL at 7-4-1 against the spread. Home teams have outscored road teams by an average score of 24.1-16.7, which makes this week more interesting with three road faves on the board. Road faves are 2-3-1 ATS so far in 2020.

And lastly, quarterback play still matters the most. Houston’s P.J. Walker is the early favorite to win MVP and St. Louis’ Jordan Ta’amu isn’t too far behind. The Renegades are undefeated with Landry Jones and the Wildcats’ Josh Johnson has arguably looked better than anyone the last two weeks. Meanwhile, New York, Seattle and Tampa Bay are searching for answers under center and are almost out of the XFL title hunt already.

ODDS TO WIN 2020 XFL CHAMPIONSHIP

XFL WEEK 4 PICKS

LOS ANGELES WILDCATS AT NEW YORK GUARDIANS (+7.5, 40)

One of my new rules about betting the XFL is keeping it simple and focusing what we actually know. When you see that the Wildcats are 7.5-point road faves in a game they have to travel across the country for, you might pause for a moment. Do we like getting this many points with the Guardians at home?

Here's what we know.: quarterback play matters a tremendous amount in the XFL. Josh Johnson has arguably looked like the best QB in the league the last two weeks (he missed Week 1 with a thigh injury). The NFL journeyman has 463 yards with five TDs and no picks. We also know the Guardians are a mess. They have only nine total points the last two weeks and played all three quarterbacks. Don’t overthink this.

Pick: Wildcats -7.5

SEATTLE DRAGONS AT ST. LOUIS BATTLEHAWKS (-11.5, 38.5)

Saturday’s second game should fall along the same basic line as the first, right? The BattleHawks look like one of the strongest teams in the league and quarterback Jordan Ta’amu is one of the league’s biggest surprises thus far. Meanwhile, Seattle has struggled with QB Brandon Silvers. He's completing just 53 percent of his passes and has four interceptions while leading a Dragons offense that hasn’t topped 20 points in a game so far.

However, this is an interesting game numbers wise. The 11.5-point spread makes the BattleHawks the biggest faves of the season, while the total of 38.5 points is the lowest in the XFL so far. A rule of thumb, in say college football, is to side with a big underdog with a total this low. But screw that. Seattle is a little better than New York - just good enough to get us Over this total but not good enough to cover, particularly with the BattleHawks' awesome home-field advantage.

Pick: BattleHawks -11.5 AND Over 38.5

HOUSTON ROUGHNECKS AT DALLAS RENEGADES (+2, 49.5)

It's arguably the best game of the young XFL season as the undefeated Roughnecks visit the 2-1 Renegades with first place in the West on the line.

Houston, led by QB P.J. Walker and wideout Cam Phillips, is the highest-scoring team in the league (and by a wide margin). Put it this way: four XFL games have gone Over and the Roughnecks have been involved in three of them. They’ll be put to the test against a Renegades defense that has allowed the fewest points in the league.

Dallas is 2-0 SU and ATS since Landry Jones has returned. The former Steeler has thrown for 579 yards and completed 72 percent of his passes but has four interceptions. That could lead to trouble against a defense that has 10 sacks and five picks. And while the Dallas defense has a bend-don’t-break mentality, it doesn't bring much pressure and is lacking in the turnover department.

The Renegades have great balance with Jones under center and Cameron Artis-Payne and Lance Dunbar in the backfield, but it’s hard to fade what has looked like the best team and player in the league at this point.

Pick: Roughnecks -2

DC DEFENDERS AT TAMPA BAY VIPERS (+2.5, 44.5)

I predicted the Wildcats would cover versus DC last week, but didn’t expect a butt kicking of that magnitude. Cardale Jones completed just 50 percent of his passes for 103 yards and four - count ‘em - four picks. The Defenders defense meanwhile, got shredded by Josh Johnson for 278 yards and three scores. While that result was a little baffling, the Defenders get a chance to get back on track when they visit the Vipers.

The Vipers finally showed some life last week, but it wasn't enough for their first win. They went into halftime of last week’s home opener against Houston with the game knotted at 18 before an eventual 34-27 Roughnecks’ victory. But some interesting news out of Tampa: QB Quinton Flowers has reportedly left the team and Taylor Cornelius is expected to start while Aaron Murray works his way back from injury. While Flowers wasn’t the starter, he injected life into the offense with his passing and running when he came into games. Cornelius has completed 55 percent of his passes for 347 yards with one TD and three picks over the last two games.

With no Plan B for the Vipers, look for the Defenders to get back to their ball-hawking ways and Jones to bounce back against a defense that has allowed the most points in the league. Jump on this now before it jumps to a field goal.

Pick: Defenders -2.5

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