Cristiano Ronaldo and Portugal reached the Round of 16 by the finest of margins, and their reward is today’s showdown with a Spain side that’s shifting into top gear in the knockout rounds.
While there’s star power all over the pitch for these European neighbors, my Spain vs. Portugal predictions back the slick movement of Lamine Yamal & Co. as -105 favorites in Dallas.
Check out my World Cup picks and betting tips for today's marquee matchup.
Spain vs Portugal predictions
| Pick | Price |
|---|---|
| Who will win pick: Spain in regulation | -105 |
| Over/Under pick: Under 2.5 | -103 |
| Goal scorer pick: Mikel Oyarzabal | +150 |
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TOP PICK
Who will win Spain vs Portugal: Spain in regulation (-105)
After a slow start, Spain are humming, with Lamine Yamal inching closer to full fitness and Mikel Oyarzabal banging in the goals — and I’m picking Luis de la Fuente’s men to take care of business against a Portugal team they know well.
The Spaniards are unbeaten in their last 34 contests, and they enter the Round of 16 with four wins from their past five outings.
The midfield battleground is always a decisive factor against Portugal, but Rodri, Pedri and Dani Olmo can match the Vitinha-João Neves-Bruno Fernandes trio, and Spain will have an edge in the final third with their dynamic front three.
While Portugal labor on with Cristiano Ronaldo leading the line, the numbers confirm the lack of spark. Despite averaging 61% of the ball across their four outings at this World Cup, they’ve managed just 3.8 shots on target per game, which ranks below the likes of Uruguay and New Zealand.
Look for Spain to create better chances at AT&T Stadium, exploiting some of Portugal’s defensive flaws that were on display in the second half against Croatia on Thursday, and I’d bet their moneyline up to -130.
COVERS INTEL: Spain are getting the job done with and without the ball, pairing dominant 68% possession and 91% pass accuracy with 0.9 xG conceded.
Spain vs Portugal Over/Under pick: Under 2.5 (-103)
There’s plenty of familiarity here, with many of the main characters squaring off in European competitions, and I see that contributing to the Under on Monday.
A gritty Spain defense has yet to concede a goal at this World Cup, and one moment of magic at the other end of the pitch might be enough to book their ticket to the quarterfinals.
Portugal were stifled by DR Congo and Colombia during the group stage, and the debate rages on around whether Ronaldo is still the right man for the central striker role. Goncalo Ramos was the hero off the bench, and this Portuguese squad looks more menacing with a more mobile target.
A change there, of course, is highly unlikely.
The Under on 2.5 goals has been a winning ticket in four of the past five meetings between these powerhouses, and I’m expecting another low-scoring battle here, with both teams content to win the possession battle at the expense of a more direct style.
Today’s World Cup picks are brought to you by ‘Patience and Pulisic.’
— Chris Vasile (@mc_silly3) July 6, 2026
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Spain vs Portugal goal scorer pick: Mikel Oyarzabal (+150)
Oyarzabal has made the “false 9” position his own in this Spanish lineup, and he’s already bagged four goals at this tournament while benefiting from the team’s wizardry on the wings, including roaming runs from Marc Cucurella, who assisted both of Oyarzabal’s strikes against Austria.
Portugal’s center-backs looked vulnerable against Croatia’s movement in their Round of 32 clash, and there could be space in behind Nuno Mendes and João Cancelo when they take up advanced positions.
That plays to Oyarzabal’s strengths. He’s a master at timing his runs into the box, and he’s the likeliest player to break today's deadlock.
See who will have the best opportunities to score goals in our World Cup set-piece takers guide.
Spain vs Portugal projected lineup
Spain (4-2-3-1): Simón; Porro, Cubarsí, Laporte, Cucurella; Rodri, Pedri; Yamal, Olmo, Baena; Oyarzabal
Portugal (4-2-3-1): Costa; Cancelo, Dias, Veiga, Mendes; Vitinha, Neves; Bernardo, Fernandes, Leão; Ronaldo
Spain vs Portugal injuries
Spain: Nico Williams LW (Doubtful), Yeremy Pino LW (Doubtful)
Portugal: No key injuries to report.
Spain vs Portugal weather
This match is being played in a dome.
Spain vs Portugal odds
 Spain |
 Portugal |
|
|---|---|---|
| -110 | Moneyline | +310 |
| +250 | Draw | +250 |
| Over 2.5 (-125) | Total | Under 2.5 (+100) |
Odds courtesy of Kalshi.
How to watch Spain vs Portugal
Check out FIFA's official 2026 World Cup website for more information.
| Location | AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX |
| Date | Monday, July 6, 2026 |
| Time | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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