Belgium knocked the United States out of the 2026 World Cup, and their reward is a showdown with a Spain side that entered the tournament as favorites to win it all in the World Cup odds.
Spain are heavily favored to advance to the semifinals at -300, and my Spain vs. Belgium predictions explain why they’ll do just that in a low-scoring affair at SoFi Stadium.
Find out more as I break down my favorite World Cup picks for Friday, July 10. Tune in at 3 p.m. ET on FOX.
Spain vs Belgium predictions
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Who will win Spain vs Belgium: Spain in regulation (-150)
This is a terrific matchup of strength vs. strength. Spain wants to maintain possession and win it back quickly, while Belgium is content to cede the ball to their opponents and hit on the break when needed.
Belgium ranks fifth in total direct attacks, but none of them have led to a goal. That lack of product is why I’m not worried about them hurting Spain in that manner.
Belgium relies on its pressing, ranking eighth in PPDA (10.6) and 10th in high turnovers (8.2) per match. They’ve used those to lead directly to scoring opportunities, averaging three shots on target and 0.80 goals per match from high turnovers.
Without those, Belgium has struggled. They’ve attempted the second-most shots per match, with a conversion rate ranking in the bottom half of the competition.
Spain’s defense is the only one yet to be breached, and they’ve allowed just five shots on target from 29 total attempts. Their midfield is also quite press-resistant, with Rodri and Pedri controlling things centrally.
When teams get through Belgium’s press, they’ve found success. Despite allowing only three shots on target per match, Belgium conceded six times and managed just one clean sheet.
The loss of Amadou Onana to an ACL injury weakens Belgium’s midfield, and they’ll be forced to play more cautiously. Spain’s superior talent and relentless pressure will eventually lead to a goal as they win in regulation.
Playable to -170.
COVERS INTEL: How press-resistant are Rodri and Pedri? They’ve been successfully tackled just 11 times despite having a combined 1,028 touches. TOp pick
Spain vs Belgium Over/Under pick: Under 2.5 (+105)
Not only am I expecting Spain to win, but I’m expecting their clean sheet streak to continue.
Yes, Belgium scored four goals against the United States. But two of those goals came from very poor defending, and another came from a comedy of errors at the back. Spain’s not going to gift them those goals, and they’re not going to allow them many opportunities at all.
La Roja didn’t even concede a shot on target in the first 75 minutes of their first four matches of the tournament. Portugal got two of them in the first 37 minutes, but were denied another one for the rest of the match.
Both of these teams do a great job of negating opponents in midfield, ranking in the Top 5 in recoveries per match. They also both sport a Top 6 aerial duel win rate.
Spain is conceding just 0.05 xG per shot and 1.49 xG in total, the best marks in the tournament, and they’re forcing teams to take the fifth-highest rate of shots from outside the box. The 41 penalty area touches allowed is also a credit to their pressure.
These two nations are going to battle in the midfield for large stretches, much like Spain and Portugal did. But just like Portugal, Belgium is good for a few mistakes per match, and that’s where La Roja will strike.
This is my top play, and I’m backing it to -120.
TOp pick
Spain vs Belgium goal scorer pick: Mikel Oyarzabal (+120)
Mikel Oyarzabal really should have scored against Portugal. His eighth-minute shot on a fast break registered 0.61 xG but he inexplicably pulled it well wide of the far post.
Still, Oyarzabal was central to Spain’s attack once again. He registered another six touches inside the 18-yard box, giving him one every 9.29 minutes.
His 42 penalty box touches are tied for most in the competition, and he has 17 goals and eight assists in his last 18 matches for Spain.
Belgium is allowing 18 box touches per match, with 64.15% of opponent shots coming inside the area.
If you want a safer play, you can instead play him to score or assist, with odds of -133.
See who will have the best opportunities to score goals in our World Cup set-piece takers guide.
Spain vs Belgium projected lineup
Spain (4-2-3-1): Simon; Porro, Cubarsi, Laporte, Cucurella; Rodri, Pedri; Yamal, Olmo, Baena; Oyarzabal.
Belgium (4-2-3-1): Courtois; Castagne, Mechele, Ngoy, Cuyper; Tielemans, Vanaken; Doku, De Bruyne, Trossard; De Ketelaere.
Spain vs Belgium injuries
Spain: Nico Williams (Doubtful).
Belgium: Amadou Onana (Out), Zeno Debast (Doubtful).
Spain vs Belgium weather
The weather will not be a factor as this game is played in a dome.
Spain vs Belgium odds
| Spain | Belgium | |
|---|---|---|
| -150 | Moneyline | +488 |
| +317 | Draw | +317 |
| Over 2.5 (-117) | Total | Under 2.5 (+113) |
Odds courtesy of Kalshi.
How to watch Spain vs Belgium
Check out FIFA's official 2026 World Cup website for more information.
| Location | SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date | Friday, July 10, 2026 |
| Time | 3 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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