Portugal were underwhelming in their opening World Cup game vs. Congo, and need to win when they face Uzbekistan in Houston today to reassure their fans that the team deserves its place among the World Cup odds favorites.
My Portugal vs. Uzbekistan predictions expect the swagger to return, and Portugal to comfortably triumph in a low-scoring game.
Read on for my World Cup picks for Tuesday, June 23, with kickoff scheduled for 1 p.m. ET on FOX.
TOP PICK
Who will win Portugal vs Uzbekistan: Portugal -1.5 (-160)
There were so many talking points around Portugal’s labored 1-1 draw vs. DR Congo, the players may be relieved to get out on the pitch to play some football again.
Manager Roberto Martinez was criticized for his tactical setup, while the selection of a largely ineffective Cristiano Ronaldo has sparked national debate.
Statistically, it was a poor showing — Portugal managed an xG of just 0.65 and only one shot on target — but the main reason to believe the Portuguese will improve lies with their opponents.
Uzbekistan lost their opening game vs Colombia (3-1). Their defensive shape was good for chunks of the game, but they struggled to contain Colombia’s better players when the South Americans raised their final-third performance level.
Portugal have a greater number of talented attacking players than Colombia, so their superior class should tell eventually.
Victories at this World Cup tend to be emphatic rather than narrow: eighteen of the tournament’s opening 26 wins have been by a margin of two or more goals. Back Portugal -1.5 up to -150.
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Portugal vs Uzbekistan Over/Under pick: Under 2.5 (+134)
Latest reports suggest Portugal will persevere with Ronaldo at the point of their attack, which will diminish their chances of scoring goals.
The 41-year-old’s lack of mobility — plus obvious inability to consistently find his teammates in good positions when he has the ball — undermines Portugal’s hopes of matching other top teams such as Brazil, England, France, Germany, and Spain in scoring at least three times in a single match.
Having lost their opening match, Uzbekistan are under pressure to win, but they are still likely to apply a defensive approach. Rather than taking risks, their priority will be to shut down Portugal, drain the favorites’ confidence, and then seek out opportune moments to edge a narrow win.
For all the talk of this being a high-scoring World Cup, Under 2.5 Goals has landed in 18 of the tournament’s opening 36 matches. Taking into account Portugal’s attacking concerns and Uzbekistan’s conservative tactics as well, the Under looks like the play.
Back Under 2.5 at anything +130 or better.
Portugal vs Uzbekistan goal scorer pick: Bruno Fernandes (+170)
If Bruno Fernandes can circumvent Cristiano Ronaldo in Portugal’s attack, he will be the smart pick to score a goal.
The Manchester United captain had two attempts vs. Congo: one was blocked, the other was off target. He frequently got into dangerous positions, however, and will look to impose himself on the team as Portugal chase a win.
He may have to fight Ronaldo — and others — for the right to take Portugal’s free kicks, but in open play will pose a threat. He has scored four times in 10 appearances for Portugal over the past two seasons, so his strike rate in national team colors is good.
Back Fernandes to find the net at anything up to +125.
See who will have the best opportunities to score goals in our World Cup set-piece takers guide.
Portugal vs Uzbekistan projected lineup
Portugal (4-2-3-1): Costa; Cancelo, Veiga, Dias, Mendes; Vitinha, Neves; Silva, Fernandes, Pedro Neto; Ronaldo
Uzbekistan (3-4-2-1): Yusupov; Abdullaev, Ashurmatov, Khusanov; Alidzhonov, Khamrobekov, Shukurov, Sayfiyev; Fayzullaev, Urunov; Shomurodov
Portugal vs Uzbekistan injuries
Portugal: Ruben Dias CB (Doubtful).
Uzbekistan: Alikulov CB (Doubtful), Alidzhonov RWB (Doubtful), Khamrobekov CM (Doubtful).
Portugal vs Uzbekistan weather
Dome.
Portugal vs Uzbekistan odds
 Portugal |
 Uzbekistan |
|
|---|---|---|
| -614 | Moneyline | +1900 |
| +809 | Draw | +809 |
| Over 2.5 (-194) | Total | Under 2.5 (+186) |
Odds courtesy of Kalshi.
How to watch Portugal vs Uzbekistan
Check out FIFA's official 2026 World Cup website for more information.
| Location | NRG Stadium, Houston, TX |
| Date | Tuesday, June 23, 2026 |
| Time | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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