After tearing through the group stage with the tournament's most lethal offense, France enters today’s Round of 32 showdown against Sweden as heavy -400 betting favorites according to World Cup odds.
Kylian Mbappé and company dominated Group I with a flawless nine-point run, and my France vs. Sweden predictions confidently back Les Bleus to keep their foot on the gas today.
Take a closer look at this Tuesday, June 30 matchup with my free World Cup picks and betting tips.
TOP PICK
Who will win France vs Sweden: France -1.5 (-135)
This spread pick was a winner in all three of France’s group contests, and I don’t see Sweden faring any better on Tuesday.
The Swedes’ 5-1 victory over Tunisia in their group stage opener was a false dawn, and they’ve since looked more like the team that stumbled through a winless qualifying campaign — only to be bailed out by a Nations League lifeline.
For all the French flair in the final third, it’s their midfield edge that should spark a comfortable win at MetLife Stadium, where Didier Deschamps’ men took down Senegal during the group stage.
Sweden may pair the inexperienced duo of Lucas Bergvall and Yasin Ayari to protect their back four, and that’s unlikely to stem the flow of France's attacks.
Look for France to dominate possession, forcing Sweden’s 3-4-3 setup to shift into a back five, and all of Les Bleus’ front four are capable of exposing the defensive flaws we saw in the Swedes’ 5-1 loss to the Netherlands in Group F.
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France vs Sweden Over/Under pick: Over 3.5 (+130)
Buckle up for goals at MetLife Stadium. France racked up 10 goals during the group stage, with Ousmane Dembele, Desire Doue, and Michael Olise helping to fuel Kylian Mbappe’s Golden Boot charge.
And the trends are just as strong for Sweden, despite their disappointing results over the past 12 months. Six of the Swedes’ past seven games have served up four or more goals, and the Viktor Gyokeres-Alexander Isak strike force will at least ask questions of the French defense.
But this pick is mainly about Les Bleus’ forwards, and the embarrassment of attacking riches for Deschamps to call on. They’ve netted at least three goals in five of their past six outings, and I’m backing them to stretch the Swedish back line to breaking point on Tuesday.
France vs Sweden goal scorer pick: Ousmane Dembele (+105)
Fresh off a clinical hat trick against Norway, Dembele is a man to watch. He stole the headlines that day in a match that was billed as Mbappe vs Haaland, and the PSG star was also on target against Iraq.
The Mbappe odds are too short for my liking here, so I’m picking Dembele to be a nuisance for the Sweden back three — especially with his ability to take up more central positions when France’s captain drifts out wide.
He finished with 20 goals this season for PSG, and I like his chances of adding to his four-goal tally in this Round of 32 battle.
See who will have the best opportunities to score goals in our World Cup set-piece takers guide.
France vs Sweden projected lineup
France (4-2-3-1): Maignan; Kounde, Upamecano, Saliba, Hernandez; Tchouameni, Rabiot; Olise, Dembele, Doue; Mbappe
Sweden (3-4-3): Zetterstrom; Lagerbielke, Lindelof, Gudmundsson; Bernhardsson, Bergvall, Ayari, Stroud; Elanga, Gyokeres, Isak
France vs Sweden injuries
France: William Saliba CB (Probable).
Sweden: Isak Hien CB (Out).
France vs Sweden weather
The forecast calls for mostly cloudy conditions at MetLife Stadium, with temperatures in the low 90s at kickoff.
France vs Sweden odds today
 France |
 Sweden |
|
|---|---|---|
| -375 | Moneyline | +1328 |
| +525 | Draw | +525 |
| Over 2.5 (+104) | Total | Under 2.5 (-108) |
Odds courtesy of Kalshi.
How to watch France vs Sweden
Check out FIFA's official 2026 World Cup website for more information.
| Location | MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ |
| Date | Tuesday, June 30, 2026 |
| Time | 5 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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