Argentina’s hopes of repeating as world champions are still alive as they face Switzerland tonight in the 2026 World Cup quarterfinals at 9 p.m. ET on FOX.
La Albiceleste have won 11 consecutive World Cup fixtures behind Lionel Messi’s stellar play, and clutch goal-scoring and are -270 favorites to advance in the World Cup odds.
My Argentina vs. Switzerland predictions and World Cup picks explain why that run will continue as they win a higher-scoring affair than expected on Saturday, July 11.
Argentina vs Switzerland predictions
| Pick | Price |
|---|---|
| Who will win pick: Argentina | -148 |
| Over/Under pick: Over 2.5 | +124 |
| Goal scorer pick: Lionel Messi | -105 |
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Who will win Argentina vs Switzerland: Argentina in regulation (-148)
Through five matches, Switzerland are the only nation yet to have trailed at any point in the tournament. That streak ends on Saturday.
Switzerland’s compact midfield shape allows them to win back the ball and limit the attacking threat of opponents. That said, they also prefer to be on the ball.
Argentina has no problem maintaining possession and working the ball around to find openings. They rank sixth with 60.4% possession, and lead the tournament in build-up sequences of at least 10 passes with 25.2 per match.
The Swiss are perfectly content breaking on the counter, but the loss of young breakout midfielder Johan Manzambi stunts their attack. He took just three shots in the tournament, but he scored from each of them.
Manzambi has been on the pitch for all nine of Switzerland’s goals this tournament. While I expect the Swiss to present a goal threat in this matchup without him, it won’t be enough to win.
Lionel Messi finally got help at the attacking end against Egypt, albeit in a desperate comeback. He accounted for just 1.01 of their 2.84 xG, and he’ll welcome that help against a Swiss back line anchored by GK Gregor Kobel.
Argentina’s midfield will control this match, Messi will work his magic, and La Albiceleste will be in front come the final whistle.
Play this to -150.
COVERS INTEL: Argentina GK Emi Martinez has the second-lowest save percentage (44.4%) and ninth-worst goals prevented mark (-1.5), of any keeper in the tournament. TOp pick
Argentina vs Switzerland Over/Under pick: Over 2.5 (+124)
Switzerland’s scoreless draw with Colombia is impacting this line more than it should.
Colombia conceded one goal through their five matches at the tournament. Conversely, Colombia’s -2.41 goals-vs.-expected ratio was the third-worst of any nation at the 2026 World Cup.
Given this matchup, I find this line to be an absolute gift. Argentina have scored 3.15 more goals than expected, while conceding five goals compared to just 2.98 expected — and that’s without the controversially disallowed goal vs. Egypt.
The Swiss have conceded just three goals from 4.37 xG thanks to Kobel’s heroics in net. But Argentina’s attack will be a whole different test, having scored multiple goals in all five matches.
Both nations average 26+ penalty touches per match and pressure at a rate of 11.1 PPDA. But when teams have gotten through Argentina’s press, they’re finding success, as Emi Martinez has stopped just four of nine shots on target in the tournament.
Argentina maintaining possession sets up a similar match flow to what the Swiss had against Algeria, where they scored a counter-attack goal inside 10 minutes and managed 2.45 xG.
That match script makes it highly improbable that either side keeps a clean sheet, even with Manzambi missing for the Swiss. With my expectations of Argentina winning in regulation, it makes the Over a no-brainer here.
Argentina vs Switzerland goal scorer pick: Lionel Messi (-105)
When you have the all-time leading World Cup goal scorer and the current Golden Boot leader sitting at -104 to score, you don’t ask questions.
The numbers speak for themselves. Eight goals at the tournament for Messi put him one ahead of Kylian Mbappe in the Golden Boot odds, and he’s now scored in nine consecutive World Cup fixtures. He leads all players with 1.1 xG and 3.73 shots on target per match.
Messi’s clutch gene and ability to score from all angles, combined with the fact his teammates work relentlessly to generate space for him, makes him the most likely player to score. Given that fact, anything better than -120 is a gift worth accepting.
See who will have the best opportunities to score goals in our World Cup set-piece takers guide.
Argentina vs Switzerland projected lineup
Argentina (4-3-1-2): E. Martinez; Molina, Romero, Li. Martinez, Tagliafico; De Paul, Paredes, Mac Allister; Fernandez La. Martinez, Messi.
Switzerland (4-2-3-1): Kobel; Zakaria, Elvedi, Akanji, Rodriguez; Freuler, Xhaka; Ndoye, Rieder, Vargas; Embolo.
Argentina vs Switzerland injuries
Argentina: None.
Switzerland: AM Johan Manzambi (Out), CM Michel Aebischer (Doubtful), CB Luca Jaquez (Out).
Argentina vs Switzerland weather
Temperatures at kickoff will be in the low 80s, with no chance of rain. Winds will be light with gusts up to 10 mph.
Argentina vs Switzerland odds
 Argentina |
 Switzerland |
|
|---|---|---|
| -148 | Moneyline | +525 |
| +270 | Draw | +270 |
| Over 2.5 (+124) | Total | Under 2.5 (-138) |
Odds courtesy of Kalshi.
How to watch Argentina vs Switzerland
Check out FIFA's official 2026 World Cup website for more information.
| Location | Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO |
| Date | Saturday, July 11, 2026 |
| Time | 9 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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