Washington Mystics vs Minnesota Lynx Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Minnesota Bounces Back Strong

There’s one lonely game on the WNBA odds board Wednesday night, but it’s a big one for the teams involved.

The injury-plagued Washington Mystics are trying to hold their place in the Eastern Conference when they visit a Minnesota Lynx squad attempting to snap a midseason skid.

Minnesota appeared to be on the rise with a five-game winning streak earlier this month but has since picked up only one victory in its last five games. That said, the Lynx have been up against some of the top-tier teams in the WNBA during that stretch and may not find the same challenge in Washington — which is playing without three of its key starters.

I break down this non-conference clash and give my best WNBA picks and predictions for the Mystics vs. Lynx on July 26.

Mystics vs Lynx best odds

Mystics vs Lynx picks and predictions

Even before injuries decimated Washington’s locker room, the Mystics were having troubles on the road.

Washington — which is just 4-6 SU and 3-7 ATS as a visitor — owns a net rating of -3.0 away from the nation’s capital compared to a bright and sunny +7.4 at home (third highest).

The Mystics have enjoyed a home-friendly schedule in July with only one road stop this month: a 92-84 loss at Connecticut on July 9.

Given the All-Star break, Washington hasn’t played in a foreign venue in 17 days and the last time it did, Elena Delle Donne and Ariel Atkins were in the lineup (though EDD lasted only 13 minutes before getting hurt). Since then, the Mystics have used a few cupcake opponents (Indiana, Seattle, Phoenix) as flotation devices, skewing just how well this team is coping with the injuries. 

I’ve kept close tabs on the Minnesota Lynx and the status of their standouts. Looking at the potential lineup, Minnesota is set up to succeed when all those bodies are healthy, and having Shepard back in the middle is a huge piece of the puzzle for a team that I believe could shake things up in the final two months of the schedule.

Bookies are putting too much weight into the Lynx’s recent results and not measuring the strength of those opponents, especially when it comes to offensive firepower. Minnesota’s home metrics took a shot because of those one-sided results but it won’t encounter the same firepower from D.C. tonight.

Washington is a poor shooting team on the road, with or without those starters, including a league-low 30% clip from beyond the arc. Protecting the perimeter has been the biggest flaw for the Lynx defense this season, but again, not something they'll have to worry about tonight.

I missed the best of this number early on (damn NFL previews), with the spread jumping from -2.5 to as high as -3.5, making this a two-possession game. Instead, I’ll shop for the lowest moneyline available, which is sitting -159 at a few spots as of this writing.

My best bet: Minnesota Lynx moneyline (-159 at Pinnacle)

Mystics vs Lynx spread and Over/Under analysis

Minnesota opened as a 2-point home favorite for Wednesday’s home stand with Washington and that spread quickly jumped to as high as -3.5 as of the afternoon.

The Mystics are still playing without starters Elena Delle Donne, Shakira Austin, and Ariel Atkins, while the Lynx are expected to welcome back starting center Jessica Shepard after she missed the previous 14 games with a non-COVID illness.

Injuries have played a big role in the up-and-down results from Minnesota this season, with several key contributors missing time. Shepard not only brings her size and length to the defense but she’s a solid scorer and has found a role as a facilitator at the high post this season. She’s averaging 9.3 points, 4.4 assists, and 9.2 rebounds through her nine appearances in 2023.

Her return is welcome considering the matchup with the shorthanded Mystics, who are missing their top two frontcourt talents in Delle Donne and Austin. Minnesota’s recent stumble also came against some strong opponents, including two games with the top-rated Aces as well as surging teams in Dallas and Atlanta.

Washington, on the other hand, is 3-3 SU in its last six games but picked up those victories against bottom-feeders Indiana, Seattle, and Phoenix. My WNBA ratings have the Lynx pegged in a much higher bracket than those foes, so I not only agree with the opening spread, but also the market move toward Minnesota considering Shepard’s status.

The Over/Under total hit the board at 160 points and has since dipped to 159.5 at some sharper sportsbooks.

The Mystics are missing key scoring stars but have taken advantage of some of those softer spots on the schedule, going 4-2 Over/Under in the past six outings. Their defense is missing the bigger bodies inside, with the defensive rating slipping from a league-best 93.6 to 106.2 in that stretch.

The Lynx are 11-12 Over/Under on the season and 3-2 O/U in the past five games, with their defensive rating spiking to 116.0 from 103.0 after facing elite offenses in Las Vegas, Atlanta, and Dallas — all of which rank Top 3 in pace rating and Top 4 in points per game.

Washington and Minnesota met in D.C. back on June 3, with the Lynx stealing an 80-78 road win as 8-point underdogs. The Mystics had all those missing starters in the lineup while Minnesota was playing without standout rookie guard Diamond Miller, who is averaging 12.5 points a night.

Mystics vs Lynx betting trend to know

The Mystics are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Mystics vs. Lynx.

Mystics vs Lynx game info

Mystics vs Lynx key injuries

Mystics: Elena Delle Donne F (Out), Ariel Atkins G (Out), Shakira Austin C (Out), Kristi Toliver G (Out).
Lynx: Jessica Shepard C (Probable), Rachel Banham G (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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