Washington Mystics vs Indiana Fever Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Washington Locks In

With the NBA Finals in the rearview, the eyes of the basketball world now shift to a WNBA season already in full swing. A matchup between the Washington Mystics and Indiana Fever will kick off a three-game slate on Tuesday, June 13. Washington is a veteran-laden squad trying to piece together a functional offense, while Indiana is young, inexperienced, and incredibly talented.

My WNBA picks and predictions for the Mystics vs. Fever believe early action has moved the line enough to make betting Washington the right play. Read ahead to find out why.

Mystics vs Fever best odds

Mystics vs Fever picks and predictions

If last night’s NBA Finals close-out game between the Miami Heat and the Denver Nuggets was your idea of basketball nirvana, you’ll love this Washington Mystics group. Because just like that game, every game the Mystics play becomes a rock fight. They take teams into the mud, get muddy themselves, and usually find a way to win ugly.

Washington may have the league's best defensive rating (90.3) by a mile, but it also has the second-worst offense with a rating of 93.3.

The Mystics are prone to stagnation, as their near 25-point collapse against the Seattle Storm on Sunday proved. That kind of offensive drought is something that Elena Delle Donne’s isolation brilliance typically mitigates. When all else is going wrong, they can throw her the ball and get a decent look. Without her, things get much more difficult. Luckily for Washington, she’s expected to return today after missing Sunday’s game with neck tightness.

So while the Mystics' offense is very much a work in progress, “EDD” is perhaps the best late-clock bail-out shot maker in the entire league. As long as she plays and is somewhat close to full strength, the Mystics have an offensive weapon the Indiana Fever simply have no answer for.

Because while Indiana has promising guards and Aliyah Boston at center, it has nobody who can hold a candle to EDD working out of the wing near the baseline or on the perimeter as a shooter. She just moves in a way the Fever can’t slow down.

The main reason to believe in Washington is of course, the defense. Boston will put Shakira Austin’s skills to the test on both ends, but nothing can prepare the young Fever phenom for the amount of off-ball stunting, pressure, and help the Mystics guards inflict upon opposing post players. 

That pressure by Natasha Cloud, Ariel Atkins, Brittney Sykes, and others, is one of the reasons Washington allows the fewest points in the paint in the W despite not having a traditional All-Defense-caliber center parked at the rim.

The difference in net rating between these two squads is just shy of nine points per game, so even accounting for home-court advantage the value is clearly on Washington here. Some Mystics skepticism has set in due to their offensive futility, but this line has moved enough to where backing them to cover Tuesday is the best play on the board.

While I’m comfortable taking them at -4.5, I’d also wait until closer to tip to see if the line moves any further in their favor.

My best bet: Mystics -4.5 (-110 at Betway)

Mystics vs Fever spread and Over/Under analysis

The Mystics opened as 6.5-point road favorites, with lines coming out about as soon as it was reported that Delle Donne was considered probable to play. Action on the Fever has seen the line drop to -4.5 in favor of Washington and it’s possible the line will keep dropping ahead of tip.

I can certainly understand why bettors are turning on the Mystics. After an emphatic opening day win over the New York Liberty, Washington has been eking out narrow wins against mediocre teams, which has led to a miserable 1-6 record against the spread over its last seven.

The Fever meanwhile are just 2-6 on the season straight up, but they’ve shown significant improvement in terms of net rating. That’s led them to go 4-1-1 ATS over their last six games — admittedly with plenty of favorable lines — but this line moving two full points already shifts the value definitively in Washington’s favor.

The total opened at 159.5, a testament to the defensive prowess of the Mystics lineup as well as their offensive ineptitude to this point of the season. That line has since fallen to 157.5 and could continue to tumble ahead of tonight’s game.

Only the thoroughly rebuilding Storm have a lower team true shooting percentage than the Mystics at 50.5%, and Washington also scores the fewest fast break points in the W. It plays a sluggish halfcourt game despite having a roster that suggests it should spend as much time in transition as humanly possible. All of that has contributed to the Under going 5-0 in Washington’s last five games overall. 

The Fever came in with modest offensive expectations but Boston has helped them exceed on that side of the ball, helping the Over go 5-2 in their last seven games. I’m skeptical they’ll have the same success against Washington’s defense, but I’m also not going to bet the Under now that the line has already moved down two full points.

Mystics vs Fever betting trend to know

The Fever are 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Mystics vs. Fever.

Mystics vs Fever game info

Mystics vs Fever key injuries

Mystics: Elena Delle Donne F (Probable).
Fever: No key injuries to report.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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