The mighty Connecticut Sun are in the Lone Star State to take on the Dallas Wings on Tuesday, July 5. The spread suggets a relatively easy win for the East's No. 2 seed — can they climb a step closer to reclaiming the top spot?
Our free WNBA picks and predictions for Sun vs. Wings on Tuesday, July 5 have Connecticut pegged for a dominant road victory.
Sun vs Wings odds
The Connecticut Sun opened as 5.5-point favorites at most books, with the line falling to -5. The total opened at 166.0 and has settled at 165.0 at the time of writing.
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks. Compare WNBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Sun vs Wings predictions
Predictions made on 7/5/2022 at 12:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Sun vs Wings info
• Location: College Park Center, Arlington, TX
• Date: Tuesday, July 5, 2022
• Tip-off: 8:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Facebook
Sun vs Wings betting preview
Key injuries
Sun: None.
Wings: None.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Sun are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in Dallas. Find more WNBA betting trends for Sun vs. Wings.
Sun vs Wings picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
Connecticut comes in the loser of three of its last five games, which on the face of things might make this ripe for an upset pick. Not so fast. The only sub-.500 team to beat the Sun in the entire month of June were the New York Liberty, who just caught fire from outside. In that same period, the Sun boast wins over the Aces, Storm, and Mystics.
Their record has been spotty (by their immensely impressive standard) in large part due to a more difficult schedule, not because of any flaw with Connecticut itself. The Sun remain a fundamentally sound team, owner of the W’s best net rating at 8.5, while the Wings are at -1.3.
In any kind of conflict, self-knowledge is the first key to victory. The Sun know exactly who they are and how they need to play to win. They beat teams by winning the possession game, playing cohesive team defense, and by putting pressure on the rim offensively. There are few teams in the WNBA capable of stopping the three-headed monster of Alyssa Thomas, Jonquel Jones, and DeWanna Bonner. Fewer still could add 2021 All-Star Courtney Williams and slot her in as clearly their fourth-best player.
They lead the league in second chance points and points off turnovers while doing a nice job of limiting those for their opponents. The Sun are also the best offensive rebounding team in the W, grabbing 35.7% of their misses and creating extra scoring chances.
The Wings, by contrast, are a team still searching for an identity. While they don’t have glaring holes, they’re below average in nearly every area. Arike Ogunbowale is one of the highest volume 3-point shooters in the W at 8.2 attempts per game, but as a team, they're not quite as devoted to 3-point shooting as the Liberty or even the newly-converted Aces.
The Wings might generate more open threes if they committed to swinging the ball more, but Dallas is not a big ball movement team, with only the Atlanta Dream assisting on fewer baskets.
Until the Wings have more talent or a system that lets them play better than the sum of their parts, they’ll continue to struggle with teams like Connecticut that have both.
Prediction: Sun -5.0 (-110 at bet365)
Over/Under analysis
The Sun have a formidable defense, which is why the Under has cashed in a lot of their games recently. But their defense is effectively priced into this total, so the real question is if they can run up the score against Dallas.
For a lot of teams, that means knocking down threes. Not so much for Connecticut. If the Sun have a flaw, it’s that they don’t shoot much from outside. Only the Sparks shoot fewer treys per game, but the Sun score in pretty much every other fashion.
Outside of 3-point shooting, free throws are the most efficient shots in basketball — and the Sun and the Wings are both among the league leaders in free throw attempts at 20.3 and 20.2 per game respectively.
Also, at 20.5%, the Sun force more turnovers than anyone outside the Seattle Storm, leading the league steals at 8.9 per game. Live-ball turnovers create the most efficient transition opportunities in basketball, and they key quick, high-scoring possessions.
Even if Dallas has trouble scoring at times on Tuesday, I like Connecticut’s offense enough to take the Over.
Prediction: Over 165.0 (-110 at bet365)
Best bet
The last time these two teams played, the Sun won 99-68, so while this is a healthy road line they’re more than capable of blowing it out of the water. They’ve proven so consistently, with the Sun going 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in Dallas.
It’s also at a matchup advantage for Connecticut. The Sun want to score the basketball inside and are third in the W in points in the paint. Conversely, the Wings are third in paint points allowed, so Jonquel Jones and Alyssa Thomas should beast the Wings at the rim.
Pick: Sun -5.0 (-110 at bet365)
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