The Las Vegas Aces took a 1-0 series lead with a thrilling win over the Phoenix Mercury in Game 1 of the WNBA Finals on Friday. The visiting team will look to steal home-court advantage with a victory as 3-point underdogs at Michelob Ultra Arena on Sunday before the series shifts back to Phoenix for Games 3 and 4.
ABC has coverage beginning at 3:00 p.m. ET.
My Mercury vs. Aces and WNBA picks for October 5 expect Phoenix to clean up its mistakes and take Game 2 outright in a lower-scoring affair.
Mercury vs Aces predictions
My Mercury vs Aces best bet: Mercury moneyline (+122 at FanDuel)
Late-game miscues, and a surge from the opposing team on the road. This isn’t Phoenix Mercury's first rodeo, as they found themselves in the same position in each of their last two series.
In Game 1 against the defending champion New York Liberty, they were up by two going into the fourth quarter and lost in overtime. In the semifinals against the Minnesota Lynx, they dropped Game 1 after going into the final frame tied up.
On Friday, Phoenix commanded a four-point lead over the Las Vegas Aces after three quarters and lost in the final seconds of a back-and-forth affair.
The Mercury bounced back from both of those Game 1 losses and won Game 2 in each series, outscoring opponents by a combined 42-30 in the fourth quarter. They can do it again on Sunday.
In Game 1, Phoenix was the more efficient team, shooting 47% to Las Vegas’ 45.8%. Phoenix hit 14 threes to Las Vegas’ nine, and the Mercury won the rebound battle 35-33. The Mercury lost the turnover battle 14-7 and surrendered 20 points off of turnovers.
The Mercury — who have been the best defensive team in the playoffs — surrendered a playoff-high 89 points. Coach Nate Tibbetts made it clear that his team needs to step it up on the defensive end if they want to earn a win on Sunday.
Tibbetts also pointed out the challenge Phoenix had in scoring against Las Vegas’ defense in the second half of the game after the Aces switched from man-to-man to zone. The Mercury scored 50 points in the first half but just 36 in the second.
The Mercury had a chance to tie or go ahead in Game 1 in the final seconds of the game but ultimately fell short. I expect adjustments on both ends of the court in Game 2 and another bounce-back performance.
Mercury vs Aces same-game parlay (SGP)
Mercury moneyline
Under 164.5
DeWanna Bonner Over 5.5 rebounds
Phoenix hasn’t allowed a team to score 89 points in any other game in the playoffs, and defensive intensity should be a focal point of Sunday’s gameplan.
The teams hit the Under in three of four regular-season matchups, and I expect a lower-scoring Game 2. This is a particularly appealing line that has risen 4.5 points from Game 1’s 160.
DeWanna Bonner has averaged 6.9 rebounds in the playoffs, and she’s grabbed at least six rebounds in six of her last seven games. That includes three straight contests heading into Game 2.
Her scoring has been erratic, but she’s consistently crashed the glass, and I expect more of the same from the veteran, two-time champion in Game 2.
Mercury vs Aces odds
Mercury vs Aces live odds
Mercury vs Aces opening odds
- Spread: Phoenix +3 (-114) | Las Vegas -3 (-106)
- Moneyline: Phoenix +122 | Las Vegas -150
- Over/Under: Over 164.5 (-110) | Under 164.5 (-110)
Mercury vs Aces trend
Phoenix has won and covered in both Game 2s in the playoffs. Find more WNBA betting trends.
How to watch Mercury vs Aces
| Location | Michelob Ultra Arena, Paradise, NV |
| Date | Sunday, October 5, 2025 |
| Tip-off | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
Mercury vs Aces latest injuries
Mercury: None.
Aces: None.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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