The nightcap of tonight’s WNBA Playoff doubleheader features the Connecticut Sun meeting the Minnesota Lynx in Game 2 of their best-of-five semifinal series.
Connecticut is in the driver's seat after its Game 1 victory, and tonight’s Sun vs. Lynx predictions believe this contest may end closer than the oddsmakers’ number on the board.
Read on as I explain why my WNBA picks expect the Sun to cover the spread on Tuesday, October 1.
Sun vs Lynx predictions
My best bet
Sun +5 (-105 at Caesars)
My analysis
The Connecticut Sun opened their best-of-five series with a three-point victory over the Minnesota Lynx.
The victory was the Sun’s third over the Lynx in four tries. However, the oddsmakers are giving Connecticut five points despite each of those games being decided by fewer than five points.
Minnesota is a good team. The Lynx play strong defense and don’t turn the ball over much, but they also don’t consistently score from downtown when needed.
Minnesota led the league in 3-point shooting percentage (38%), but that number has dipped across its last 10 to 34%. The Lynx shot a miserable 5-for-20 from beyond the arc in Game 1, mainly because the Sun continued its season-long torment of 3-point shooters.
The Sun topped the league in defensive efficiency with the best 3-point defense (31%). The addition of Marina Mabrey at the trade deadline did nothing to change this, as the Sun have allowed a paltry 31% shooting from downtown across their last 10.
The Sun’s defense is not the only reason I’m taking the points tonight. Mabrey gives Connecticut an elite scorer from everywhere. Minnesota plays tough defense, but Sun forward DeWanna Bonner ranks fourth all-time in playoff scoring. DiJonai Carrington can also score at will, while Olympian Alyssa Thomas is a triple-double threat whenever she steps on the court.
That will make it hard for a Lynx side to cover when they’ve only covered the number twice in their last five at Target Center.
Sun vs Lynx same-game parlay (SGP)
Sun +5
Napheesa Collier Over 21.5 points
Lynx moneyline
We’ll keep this simple. I like the Sun to cover the spread and if Napheesa Collier scores 22+, the Lynx will win.
Collier is the straw that stirs the Minnesota drink. She fell a bit shy of the oddsmakers’ points total (19) on Sunday, but she’s cleared 22+ points in three of her last five and twice in four meetings this season with the Sun.
A big scoring night for Collier also opens the door for Kayla McBride and Bridget Carleton to get easier looks from downtown. Minnesota can beat the Sun, but only if it's hitting from long-range. If it does, then Minnesota will win in a nail-biter.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Sun vs Lynx odds
Sun vs Lynx live odds
Get the latest Sun vs Lynx WNBA odds for tonight.
Sun vs Lynx opening odds
- Spread: Connecticut +5 (-110) | Minnesota -5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Connecticut +175 | Minnesota -210
- Over/Under: Over 150.5 (-110) | Under 150.5 (-110)
Sun vs Lynx series odds
- Sun: -155
- Lynx: +130
Sun vs Lynx spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Sun are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games following a straight-up win and 2-0-0 ATS against the Lynx as the underdog.
- The Lynx is 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games following a straight-up loss.
- Over/Under totals have spiked as high as 152.5 (-110) from the 150.5 (-110) openers. The Over is 2-2-0 in this season’s four prior meetings.
Sun vs Lynx trend
The Sun is 5-1 ATS in their last six road games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Sun vs. Lynx.
Sun vs Lynx game info
| Location: | Target Center, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Tuesday, 10-1-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Sun vs Lynx latest injuries
Sun: Tiffany Mitchell G (Out).
Lynx: None.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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