Sun vs Aces Game 2 Picks and Predictions: Vegas Pushes Connecticut to the Brink

The Connecticut Sun executed a game plan in Game 1 of the WNBA finals, limiting the number of shots the Las Vegas Aces could take and make... and they still lost. Our betting picks anticipate more of the same with Vegas making the right adjustments.

Last Updated: Sep 13, 2022 9:34 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Chelsea Gray Las Vegas Aces WNBA Finals
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Connecticut Sun need to find their footing and they need to find it immediately. A three-point loss in Game 1 may not seem all that bad, but a best-of-five series makes every loss all the more concerning.

The Las Vegas Aces’ time may be now, finally. They have reached at least the conference finals in four straight seasons. Each of those three previous runs came to humbling ends. They have a decent idea of what a shortened playoff series feels like, though this time they are looking to be on the other side of that frustration.

Here are our free WNBA picks and predictions for the Sun vs the Aces on September 13.

Sun vs Aces Game 2 best odds

Sun vs Aces Game 2 picks and predictions

The Sun’s best hopes in this series always hinged on successfully bullying the Aces. Las Vegas shot its way through the regular season, scoring 4.1 more points per game than the No. 2 in the league, which was, fittingly, Connecticut. It initially led the league in all stats from beyond the arc, but eventually fell to No. 2 in both 3-pointers made and shooting percentage from deep.

Still, the Aces hit 36.1% of those shots while taking 26.4 per game. Compare that to the Sun, taking only 18 threes per game and making just 35.4% of them. Perhaps those differences do not sound drastic, so let’s put them in more literal terms while also considering pace of play.

The Aces scored 34.5 points on threes per 100 possessions. Nearly a third of their possessions ended in a chuck from deep. The Sun managed only 23.7 points on threes per 100 possessions this regular season, shooting from beyond the arc on barely a fifth of their possessions.

Clearly, these are incongruent approaches, and one of them is obviously more modern. Barring a 2018 Houston Rockets-esque collapse, Las Vegas’ shooting alone should propel it to its first title in franchise history.

For all those regular-season shooting marks, Las Vegas has actually improved in the playoffs. It is now scoring 38.4 points per 100 possessions on threes while making 39.7% of those attempts.

Connecticut has not trended that way. If anything, it has leaned away from such an approach, now making only 5.5 shots from deep per 100 possessions and taking just 17.3.

The Sun need to knock the Aces off their preferred game because they cannot keep up otherwise. Connecticut has enough big options to dictate Las Vegas out of the small-ball lineup that spurred the best offense in the league, but those big options were not enough in Game 1.

Forward Brionna Jones played only 17 minutes in the series opener, grabbing just one rebound. Jonquel Jones and Alyssa Thomas played better, snagging 20 rebounds between them, but the Sun’s plus-five rebounding margin reflected the relatively even play under the basket. If Connecticut grabbed more offensive rebounds (it did, 13 to 6), that may have been mostly because it took 11 more shots.

The Sun's edge in attempts came from an inability to draw fouls. The Aces went 16 of 19 at the line, compared to Connecticut’s 3 of 5. In other words, the Sun arguably did exactly what it wanted to in Game 1. It made life more physical and kept Las Vegas to only 5 of 24 shooting from deep. Two of its primary three big-ball forces produced repeated second chances.

And the Aces still prevailed.

Las Vegas should find ways to counteract Connecticut’s game plan in the second matchup of this series. Hit just one more heave from beyond the arc and the Aces will cover tonight’s spread. And if anything is clear, it is that the Aces will continue to chuck it from deep.

My best bet: Aces -4.5 (-110 at Caesars)

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Sun vs Aces series odds

Sun: +410.
Aces : -650.

Sun vs Aces betting preview

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Spread analysis Over/Under analysis Game info Injuries Trend to know

Spread analysis

Spending 500-plus words to essentially say, “Las Vegas shot all season and even more in the postseason and — Game 1 aside — those shots should keep coming while more will fall,” may have been overly complicated. But a best bet requires that evidence and sample size.

A spread analysis does not. The Aces shot 20.8% from deep in Game 1. It was their second-worst showing of their 43 games this season and postseason, behind only a May win against Chicago. In four of seven playoff games, the Aces have shot 33.3% or better from three. They did so in 24 of 36 regular-season games.

It would simply be illogical to think Las Vegas will shoot so badly again in Game 2, and if it shoots just a touch better, covering a two-bucket spread should hardly be a problem.

Over/Under analysis

No matter how well the Aces shoot, the Sun will still slow down the game. Las Vegas taking 58 field goals in Game 1 was its lowest attempts tally of both the season and the playoffs. 

This much will not change. While Las Vegas may and should shoot better from deep, it cannot speed up the game all on its own. As long as Connecticut drags its feet, reaching a total of 164 may be too ambitious.

Sun vs Aces game info

Location: Michelob ULTRA Arena, Las Vegas, NV
Date: Tuesday, September 13, 2022
Tip-off: 9:00 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

Sun vs Aces key injuries

Sun: Bria Hartley PG (Out), Jasmine Thomas G (Out).
Aces: None.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

Sun vs Aces betting trend to know

Over the last two seasons, matchups between these two have gone Under in five of seven games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Sun vs. Aces.

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