Seattle Storm vs Las Vegas Aces Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Gray Cooks Awful Perimeter Defense

WNBA bettors are sizing up the biggest point spread of the 2023 season, with the mighty Las Vegas Aces giving as many as 18.5 points to the visiting Seattle Storm on Thursday.

Las Vegas wasted little time getting back in the win column following its first loss of the season, roughing up the Chicago Sky in a 93-80 victory Sunday. While that win improved the Aces to 8-1 SU, Vegas came up short as 13.5-point chalk and has managed to cover the spread only once in the past five contests.

Seattle is coming off a rare win, having picked up just its second victory of the season in Phoenix on Tuesday. The Storm stunned the host Mercury as 6.5-point road dogs and have proved profitable despite their bad record, taking a 5-2-1 ATS mark into this meeting with the reigning WNBA champs.

I size up this monstrous spread as well as the Over/Under total and give my best WNBA picks for the Storm vs Aces on June 15.

Storm vs Aces best odds

Storm vs Aces picks and predictions

With a spread this high and a total ticking up, there are plenty of points to go around for the Las Vegas Aces.

Vegas has no shortage of options on offense either, but when it comes to the player projections vs. the player scoring props, guard Chelsea Gray sees the largest discrepancy in those two measurements.

Models range from 14.6 points to 15.7, with a ceiling of 16.6 from other forecasts. All of which will get us Over her points prop of 13.5 (Over -115) on Thursday. That total is from bet365, while DraftKings sportsbook has Gray’s scoring prop as high as 15.5 (Over +110).

She’s been the most consistent contributor for the Aces so far this season, averaging just Over 14 points per game. Gray tied her season high with 19 points in the win over Chicago on Sunday, shooting 8-for-9 from the field including making all three of her attempts from beyond the arc.

Her scoring output jumps to 15.3 points at home, where she’s shooting almost 67% from the floor and nearly 73% from downtown. Gray has made massive improvements to her 3-point shooting this season, leading the Aces in makes and success rate from outside.

The Seattle Storm enter this contest as one of the worst defensive teams in the WNBA, allowing opponents to make 38% from distance for an average of 7.9 triples a contest — making up the second-worst 3-point D in the W.

Gray scored 14 points in the season opener at Seattle and torched a much stronger Storm side in last year’s playoffs, averaging 25 points per game over their four-game semifinal set.

My best bet: Chelsea Gray Over 13.5 points (-115 at bet365)

Storm vs Aces spread and Over/Under analysis

The last time these teams clashed, the Aces ransacked the Storm in the season opener with a 105-64 blasting in Seattle. Las Vegas closed as a 13.5-point favorite in that game and opened at -17.5 for this home stand Thursday night. Money on the host side has bumped this big spread to as high as -18.5 at some markets.

My WNBA power ratings produced a shorter number, closer to Las Vegas -16 given the Storm are playing their second road game in three days and Vegas has been off since Sunday — allowing the team time to rest and fine tune in practice. However, the toughest teams to calculate are the ones at the top and bottom of those ratings. That’s exactly what we have here.

The Storm have been one of the more profitable bets so far in 2023, playing beyond the oddsmaker's expectations. Seattle is coming off a victory against Phoenix last time out, but the Mercury aren’t a great team to begin with and lost star center Brittney Griner to a hip injury nine minutes into that contest... drastically changing the flow of the game. I'm not putting too much weight into that result.

And while the Aces are top of the table at 8-1 SU, the champs haven’t played their best basketball yet. Las Vegas dropped the final outing of a four-game Eastern road trip in Connecticut last Thursday and came out swinging back home against Chicago on the weekend.  It jumped out to a 17-point lead at halftime, however, the Aces took their foot off the gas in the fourth quarter and cost bettors laying the -13.

The team has enjoyed an extended break since then and plays just its fourth home game of the season tonight, boasting +26.3 net rating in Sin City over the previous three home stands. Seattle has played away from home just twice so far in 2023.

The O/U total for this Western Conference clash hit the board at 168 points and has since grown to as tall as 169 as of Thursday afternoon. The closing number for the first matchup between the Aces and Storm in Seattle was 167.5 points with the 105-64 blowout going Over the number.

These foes sit No. 3 and No. 4 in terms of pace rating in the WNBA with Vegas ranked tops in offensive rating. The Storm… not so much (dead last 92.0). Vegas is 6-3 O/U this year while Seattle boasts a 4-4 mark.

Storm vs Aces betting trend to know

Double-digit WNBA favorites are 12-2 SU but just 4-10 ATS in 2023. Find more WNBA betting trends for Storm vs. Aces.

Storm vs Aces game info

Storm vs Aces key injuries

Storm: No key injuries to report.
Aces: Riquna Williams G (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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