Best WNBA Player Props Today: Ogunbowale Weaves Through Dream Stoppers

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Prop bet #1: Oh my Ogunbowale

With the twin departures of Kayla Thornton and Allisha Gray, there’s no question anymore as to who the Dallas Wings are building around. Arike Ogunbowale is as talented as they come, and was quick to remind anyone who’d forgotten in the offseason with her opening day 27-point game against the Atlanta Dream.

Ogunbowale is quick with the ball but can also come to a stop in an instant, which makes it very difficult for opponents to cover her. Her preference is to put her defender in the mix one-on-one, and either blow by her to make a play, or step back (or side step) into a deep three. 

The step-back three is the must-have move for All-Star guards in this era, and Arike is as good at getting into that shot as any player in the W right now. She’s mastered the crossover into the step-back as one fluid motion, and it just creates so much space. That level of handle affords a quality of shot that isn’t available to many other shooters. Yes, it’s immensely difficult, but the shot is open after the dribble move. 

There are also just more shots to go around. While this line seems high, that’s not fully taking into account the departure of Gray, nor the injury to Diamond DeShields that has her sidelined. The Wings’ offense right now is a three-headed monster of Ogunbowale, Natasha Howard, and Satou Sabally, with Arike unquestionably the head of the snake. 

Arike averaged 19.7 points per game last season, but when given full tick like she was in the opener, she’s proven capable of even more. 

Two years ago, when her minutes were higher and she was the unquestioned No. 1 scorer, she averaged 22.8 points per game. If her 39 minutes against the Dream are any indication, Arike is going to produce at career-best levels this season.

Arike Ogunbowale prop: Over 22.5 points (-125 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Count out Courtney

It’s only been a couple of games, but something has already become resoundingly clear about the Eastern Conference: the Washington Mystics are a complete pain to play. 

The Mystics were the No. 1 overall defense in the WNBA in 2022, with a defensive rating of 96. That defense was largely built around having numerous bulldog defenders on the perimeter, and Ariel Atkins and Natasha Cloud are back this year and as sharp as ever. 

Getting Elena Delle Donne back in full form has also been huge. While she hasn’t received the defensive accolades of some of her peers, the Washington defense would not be what it is without her attentiveness and mobility in the middle.

But Washington’s perimeter defense is why I’m taking the Under on Courtney Williams’ points prop. Williams is a new addition to the Chicago Sky this season, and a capable ball-handler and scorer. And yet better players than her have wilted against this Mystics' defense. 

They just made the star-studded New York Liberty look like college freshman in their debut, and that team had many more options than the Sky do. Williams has averaged 8.5 points through two games with Chicago, and I’m expecting that or less against this stout Washington guard rotation.

Courtney Williams prop: Under 10.5 points (-115 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Cop out

Due to the Mystics’ defense, I like the Under for Kahleah Copper’s points prop as well. 

Copper is less of a strict perimeter player than Williams, as she lives to attack the paint and score at the basket. But that, too, is going to be tough sledding against the Mystics. 

While the Mystics aren’t perceived to have any amazing rim protector (though I’d argue EDD is underrated in that department), they’re so good at denying penetration that it scarcely matters. The Mystics led the WNBA last season by allowing just 29.7 points in the paint per game, as well as the fewest second chance points at just 8.8. They more-or-less brought the whole band back again this season, and have picked up right where they left off.

Washington’s continuity is what makes them a defensive powerhouse, but it would be remiss to ignore their newest addition. To what is already an embarrassment of riches, the Mystics also went and added Brittney Sykes this offseason. 

Sykes is as good a ball hawk as there is in the WNBA. When Sykes is on the floor, no dribbler is safe, and she’s incredible at forcing steals as a help defender. She also plays bigger than her size at 5-foot-9, which allows her to work in a lot of different alignments. 

While she won’t guard Copper straight up, her mere presence will impact Copper’s ability to drive and should help hold her below what is an oddly juiced 18.5-point prop. Copper is averaging 17.5 points per game so far this season, and that came against the Phoenix Mercury and the Minnesota Lynx, who are not anywhere near the Mystics’ tier defensively.

Kahleah Copper prop: Under 18.5 points (-115 at bet365)