Best WNBA Player Props Today: Wilson Goes to Work

WNBA action rolls on, and we have a three-pack of games on deck tonight. Our WNBA picks have a trio of scoring props — highlighted by A'ja Wilson.

Jason Logan: Senior Betting Analyst at Covers
Jason Logan • Senior Betting Analyst
May 21, 2024 • 18:34 ET • 4 min read
A'ja Wilson WNBA
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Tuesday’s WNBA betting sked is “Thrice as Nice” with three matchups on the odds board tonight.

The Dallas Wings visit the Atlanta Dream before two late-night outings. The Phoenix Mercury slide into Sin City to take on the Las Vegas Aces (10 p.m.), and the Los Angeles Sparks host the Washington Mystics on the West Coast.

I run down the player prop odds for Tuesday’s tilts and give my best WNBA picks for May 21.

WNBA player prop bets for May 21

Picks made on 5-21 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.

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Today's best WNBA player props bets

Prop bet #1: Double-A OK

The Washington Mystics took a hit with Brittney Sykes going down due to an ankle injury. Sykes was expected to share the scoring load with Ariel Atkins this season but is officially out for tonight’s trip to Los Angeles.

Atkins shot the ball 16 times in the loss to Seattle on Sunday, finishing with 19 points. That tied her high in field goal attempts from last season, and has Washington’s guard projected for as many as 21+ points tonight. My forecast isn’t as bullish at 16.8 points from Atkins, but the volume should be there — especially against the Sparks.

Los Angeles ranks second worst in defensive rating and is allowing foes to fire at a 51.1% effective field goal rate. That has a lot to do with giving up high percentage looks inside, allowing an average of 41 points in the paint through two games. Atkins may be small, but she can get to the basket and tops the Mystics in scoring inside, picking up seven points per outing in the key. 

WNBA prop odds for Atkins sit as low as 15.5 O/U on Tuesday (some opened 14.5), but other books are up to 16.5 points while others are juicing the Over 15.5 to as high as -130. You can still find Over 15.5 at -115.

Ariel Atkins prop: Over 15.5 points (-115 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Wilson for the win

A’Ja Wilson gave the Mercury 30 points in the season opener, and her scoring prop for Tuesday’s rematch is sitting at 23.5 O/U. It’s a tall order, but sometimes you have to give the elite players the benefit of the doubt.

Wilson not only shot 10-for-22 against a Phoenix interior missing Brittney Griner, but she cashed in 10 of 11 free throws over 35 minutes. Without Griner changing shots in the lane, the Mercury run dangerously small with a four-guard set and 6-foot-3 Natasha Mack as the lone starting forward.

Tonight’s point spread is a beefy one, with the Las Vegas Aces laying 15 points and a team total of 93.5 O/U. That sets up a high-scoring game script for Wilson and the defending champs. The Mercury haven’t looked great on defense and enter 10th in defensive rating after two games in 2024.

Player models range from 22.3 to 26+ for Wilson, with my number coming out to 24.5. Some books are dealing Over 23.5 as high as -130 on Tuesday morning, but you can still find a couple of shops at Over 23.5 at -115.

A’Ja Wilson prop: Over 23.5 points (-115 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: Charles In Charge

WNBA veteran Tina Charles was brought to the Atlanta Dream to inject them with offense. 

She looked great in the season opener, pouring in 21 points on 9-for-14 shooting, but got into foul trouble early into Game 2, shooting just 2-for-7 over 27 disjointed minutes. That effort dropped her scoring prop to 13.5 points for tonight's home opener vs. Dallas.

The Wings were beaten up inside through two home games against Chicago, giving up 42 and 46 points in the paint. Atlanta’s offense has been anchored with those inside looks, with Charles averaging 10 PITP through two games. Dallas is already missing Satou Sabally in the frontcourt and will be down Natasha Howard for six weeks — leaving a big gap in the interior defense.

Player projections for Charles range from 14.3 to 15.4 points, forecasting 29 minutes for the 6-foot-4 center. My number comes out to 14.3 points from Charles, giving solid EV on the Over 13.5, which is paying EVEN money at some sportsbooks on Tuesday morning.

Tina Charles prop: Over 13.5 points (+110 at BetRivers)

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