Best WNBA Player Props Today: No Doubting Thomas

Prop bet #1: Down on Dolson

One of the new faces for the Washington Mystics is center Stefanie Dolson. She scored 12 points on 4 of 8 shooting against her former team, the New York Liberty, in the season opener.

That effort has lifted her scoring prop to 10.5 points for tonight’s trip to Connecticut. However, I’m not as confident Dolson can crack double digits against a stingy Connecticut Sun frontcourt on the road.

Half of Dolson’s dozen points on Tuesday came from two 3-point makes (2-for-6), with her activity from the outside reaching career highs. She hasn’t taken six triples in a game since 2021, with Dolson averaging no more than 2.4 shots from distance throughout her career.

Connecticut has a big and experienced frontcourt and did a great job taking Indiana Fever center Aliyah Boston out of the offense on Tuesday. The Sun finished last year ranked No. 3 in defending centers (6.3 ppg) and held opponents to 40% shooting inside the paint.

Dolson’s player projections sit south of 10 points on Friday, with a low of 7.5. Given the quality of defense, the drop in her 3-point activity, and the Sun playing a methodical pace, there’s plenty of head room for the Under 10.5 points.

Stefanie Dolson prop: Under 10.5 points (-115 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Tailing Thomas

I bet the Over on Alyssa Thomas’ rebounds on opening night and I’m going back to the well Friday, with her rebounding prop at 8.5 O/U.

Thomas is a stat sheet stuffer, as evidenced by her triple double against the Fever on Tuesday. That huge effort included 10 rebounds. 

Not only is Connecticut one of the better defensive teams in the WNBA, which forces plenty of misses, but Thomas is having to play bigger with standout forward Brionna Jones working her way back from an Achilles injury. Jones only played 19 minutes on Tuesday, leaving more rebounding duties to fall on Thomas.

Player projections call for more than 9.5 boards from Thomas tonight, with a ceiling close to 11 rebounds. And in her four meetings with the Mystics last season, Thomas snatched 10, nine, 10, and 16 rebounds.

Her rebounding prop is as high as 9.5 O/U at some books but you can find Over 8.5 boards paying +105 as of Friday morning.

Alyssa Thomas prop: Over 8.5 rebounds (+105 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #3: Side with McBride

The Minnesota Lynx opened the season with a bang, picking up a massive road win against a star-stacked Seattle Storm. Now Seattle comes to the Land of 10,000 Lakes, and Minnesota will lean on veterans like Kayla McBride to weather the incoming Storm.

McBride didn’t have a great night offensively on Tuesday, scoring only nine points on 3-for-8 shooting, including a 1-for-5 mark from beyond the arc. After taking a bit of backseat to Courtney Williams (14 points) and Alanna Smith (22 points) on Tuesday, I expect her find more space on her own floor with Seattle’s defense trying to plug up the middle.

McBride’s 3-point prop sits at 1.5 O/U with the Over juiced as high as -200, so expect her to pick up at least six points from distance. Tuesday’s matchup between the Lynx and Storm was played at a very fast tempo, with a pace rating of 103.8, and both sides attempted 75+ field goals. There's potential for plenty of points to go around.

McBride, who was the team’s second-leading scorer in 2023 (14.3 ppg), will have ample opportunity to top this scoring total. Player forecasts range between 12.88 and 16.2 points, with my number coming out to 14 points. 

Kayla McBride prop: Over 13.5 points (+100 at FanDuel)