The Connecticut Sun are off to the best start in Eastern Conference history at 8-0, if you will grant the outdated premise of conferences in the WNBA.
That start alone is not enough reason to back them in my Mystics vs Sun predictions, but that does gain steam when realizing Connecticut already beat Washington already.
This spread is notably heftier than that was just two weeks ago, but my WNBA picks for this June 4 tilt are focusing on the assist total of Alyssa Thomas rather than choosing a side.
Mystics vs Sun predictions
My best bet
Alyssa Thomas Over 7.5 assists (-132 at FanDuel)
My analysis
WNBA games are shorter than NBA games at only 40 minutes, there are fewer games in a season at only 36 games, and the league has been around for less than three decades. So it should not be too shocking the WNBA record for career triple-doubles is Alyssa Thomas’s 12, all coming in the last three seasons — including six last regular season alone with one more in last season’s playoffs.
The shift in her game that created this triple-double surge has come via her playmaking. In her eight seasons before 2022, Thomas never averaged more than 4.8 assists. Since then, she has ticked that up to 6.1 in 2022, 7.9 in 2023, and 9.0 through eight games this season.
Thomas has topped this assists prop in five of eight games this season, including her last three.
To some degree, Thomas’ all-around game seems to have sparked DeWanna Bonner’s career resurgence, taking more shots and scoring at a greater clip the last two seasons than she had in the two years prior. And that veteran combination is what has propelled the Connecticut Sun to the current top of the standings.
At some point, the Sun’s run will end. It may come later this week, hosting the New York Liberty. Or next week, heading to Chicago. So making the most of these chances against the WNBA’s dredges should not be taken lightly.
Blowing out the Atlanta Dream on Sunday emphasizes they are not being taken lightly, even if the Dream are firmly in the WNBA’s middle. Of even more pertinent note, Thomas played more than 35 minutes in that rout, three minutes more than any other Connecticut starter.
Why? She was chasing yet another triple-double, one against one of the three teams she has not notched one against. Thomas fell two points short, but the added minutes helped buoy her to 11 assists.
Another one of those three teams Thomas has never posted a triple-double against? You guessed it, the Washington Mystics.
Facing one of the worst teams in the WNBA, Thomas should get plenty of chances to at least make plays and fly by this assists prop, if not put together an even more complete stat line.
Mystics vs Sun same-game parlay (SGP)
Alyssa Thomas Over 7.5 assists
DeWanna Bonner Over 19.5 points
Sun moneyline
She turns 37 this year and is in her 15th WNBA campaign, so some surprise at Bonner averaging 19.0 points this season is understandable. It's an uptick after averaging 13.5 in 2022 and 17.4 in 2023. But she has always been a scorer, never averaging more than 3.5 assists in a season.
Bonner has a green light to shoot, and that led to her opening the season with four straight games of at least 20 points and six straight of at least 19. She has fallen off in her last two — 12 and 18 points, respectively — but that may have been as much about quality of opponent as anything.
Three of those first four opponents all rank in the Bottom 3 of the WNBA in defensive rating, as does a fourth among the first six opponents. Washington is among the Bottom 3, ranking No. 10 in defensive rating. Bonner should find her spots, particularly with Thomas setting her up.
And in these moments, adding the Sun moneyline to a same-game parlay may seem frivolous, but it adds 9.5% to the payout with minimal risk.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mystics vs Sun odds
Mystics vs Sun live odds
Get the latest Mystics vs Sun WNBA odds for Tuesday.
Mystics vs Sun opening odds
- Spread: Washington +13.5 (-110) | Connecticut -13.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Washington +700 | Connecticut -1,100
- Over/Under: Over 156.5 (-110) | Under 156.5 (-110)
Mystics vs Sun spread and Over/Under analysis
- Connecticut opened as a 13.5-point favorite late on Sunday, falling to -12.5 by the end of the night.
- Two weeks ago, the Sun were eight-point favorites against the Mystics, both then and this week being Connecticut home games. This 8-0 start for the Sun is impressive, but they're only 3-5 against the spread, including falling short against the Mystics. This spread jumping 4.5 points does not make enough sense to justify, especially when Washingotn is 4-3-1 ATS, hardly flailing compared to bookmakers’ expectations.
- This total opened at 156.5 on Sunday, slipping as low as 155 on Monday morning, depending on your sportsbook.
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Mystics vs Sun trend
The Sun have gone 7-1 straight-up in second halves this season. Find more WNBA betting trends for Mystics vs. Sun.
Mystics vs Sun game info
| Location: | Mohegan Sun Arena, Uncasville, CT |
| Date: | Tuesday, 6-4-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MNMT |
Mystics vs Sun latest injuries
Mystics: Brittney Sykes G (Out).
Sun: No injuries to report.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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