Not enough has been made of the downfall of the Las Vegas Aces’ dynasty. Not only are they ninth in the WNBA standings, but they are just six-point favorites against the wretched Dallas Wings.
The Las Vegas of lore would be a 15- or 20-point favorite in this matchup, despite being on the road. A spread this small underscores how different things are these days for the WNBA’s most recent dynasty.
However, A’ja Wilson is still one of the best players in the WNBA, so my Aces vs. Wings predictions focus on her before tip at 8:00 p.m. ET.
Read more in my WNBA picks for Wednesday, July 16.
Aces vs Wings predictions
My Aces vs Wings best bet: A’ja Wilson Over 22.5 points (+100 at FanDuel)
Eight days ago, it looked like A’ja Wilson’s season might be over.
An ugly fall on her wrist sparked worst-case fears, costing her the second half of a rivalry matchup against the New York Liberty.
The three-time MVP missed the Las Vegas Aces’ next game before returning on Saturday looking no worse for wear. Wilson poured in 34 points on 12-of-16 shooting in a two-point win against the Valkyries.
Napheesa Collier may have taken the crown as the best player in the WNBA, and Caitlin Clark may garner the most headlines, but never doubt that Wilson can still deliver transcendent performances.
The most surprising aspect of Golden State’s debut season has been its quality defense, No. 4 in rating both this season and over the last three weeks.
That stands out tonight because defense is the Dallas Wings’ greatest weakness, ranking No. 11 in rating this season. Worse yet, it sits at No. 12 in recent weeks, 7.4 points worse per 100 possessions than before June 27.
Plenty should be read into Dallas’s increasingly atrocious defense, and Wilson should feast against it.
Paige Bueckers pick: Heating Up
My Paige Bueckers best bet: Paige Bueckers Over 17.5 points (-113 at FanDuel)
As bad as Dallas's defense is, its offensive rating has ticked upward lately, improving by 1.5 points per 100 possessions in recent weeks. That should be emphasized tonight against a Las Vegas defense that has slid by 1.6 points per 100 possessions in the same stretch.
Any praise of the Wings’ offense is inherently praise of Paige Bueckers. She has cleared this prop in nine of 17 games this season, including eight of her last 13 and six of her last nine. Simply enough, she has only picked up steam this season, dragging the Dallas offense along with her.
Aces vs Wings same-game parlay (SGP)
A’ja Wilson Over 22.5 points
Paige Bueckers Over 17.5 points
A’ja Wilson Under 9.5 rebounds
Wilson has not consistently rebounded this season, reaching double digits just three times in her last 12 games.
No Dallas player owns the boards in particular, yet they are No. 2 in the league in rebounding rate, trailing only Angel Reese’s Chicago Sky.
Aces vs Wings odds
Aces vs Wings live odds
Aces vs Wings opening odds
- Spread: Las Vegas -5.5 (-110) | Dallas +5.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Las Vegas -250 | Dallas +166
- Over/Under: Over 170.5 (-110) | Under 170.5 (-110)
Aces vs Wings trend
Dallas hasn’t just lost its last three games, but it also failed to cover the spread in all of them. The Wings fell short of bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 13.5 points per game in their last three contests. Find more WNBA betting trends for Aces vs. Wings.
How to watch Aces vs Wings
| Location | College Park Center, Arlington, TX |
| Date | Wednesday, 7-16-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Fubo Sports US |
Aces vs Wings latest injuries
Aces: Cheyenne Parker-Tyus F (Out).
Wings: DiJonai Carrington G (Questionable), Maddy Siegrist F (Out), Tyasha Harris G (Out), Lou Lopez Senechal G (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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