The Mystics arrive in Chicago without their best player but only a game behind the Sky in the Eastern standings. Can Washington spring an upset even without Elena Delle Donne?
Chicago has gone 4-1 since its full roster became available this season, losing only to the best team in the league. This upset will be quite an ask for the Mystics.
Here are our free WNBA picks and predictions for the Mystics at the Sky on June 5.
Mystics vs Sky odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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Mystics vs Sky predictions
Predictions made on 6/5/2022 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Mystics vs Sky info
• Location: Wintrust Arena, Chicago, IL
• Date: Sunday, June 5, 2022
• Tip-off: 6:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Prime Video
Mystics vs Sky betting preview
Key injuries
Mystics: Elena Delle Donne F (Out).
Sky: Julie Allemand G (Out), Li Yueru C (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 6-1-1 in Chicago’s last eight games, as well as 3-0 in Washington’s three games this season as an underdog. Find more WNBA betting trends for Mystics vs. Sky.
Mystics vs Sky picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
An opportunity continues to exist to capitalize on the belated return of Kahleah Copper to the Sky lineup. After winning a title to cap her international offseason, Copper rejoined Chicago four games into the WNBA season. The Sky were 2-2 at the time. Since then, it had gone 4-1, falling only to the Las Vegas Aces a week ago.
Copper is still finding her idealized W form, though perhaps Friday’s 21-point, 8-rebound showing in Chicago’s win against the Atlanta Dream marks her rounding into that form. Those were both game-highs, showing how many ways the Sky can beat you.
If Candace Parker manages only nine points and six rebounds, albeit along with five assists, Copper can pour in buckets along with Emma Meesseman (16 points on 6 of 10 shooting) to keep the offense humming.
The Mystics lack that versatility in good times, and without Elena Delle Done, today will not be considered good times. They have lost three of their last five, including a 9-point defeat two weeks ago against the Sky. Worse yet, one of those losses came against the 3-7 New York Liberty.
Delle Donne has played in eight of Washington’s 11 games, averaging 17.5 points and 6.8 rebounds. The Mystics have gone 2-1 in her three absences, but that loss was just a week ago at Connecticut, not to mention one of those wins was against the Lynx, which is hardly something to boast about this season.
Delle Donne’s rest schedule is designed with long-term intentions, but it will cost Washington in the short term.
Prediction: Sky -5.5 (-118 at FanDuel)
Over/Under analysis
This total fell for a reason. Books tend to be slow to adjust to WNBA metrics, a reality of the small size of the market, especially on a day when most bettors are focused on Game 2 of the NBA Finals. Frankly, this total should probably fall further.
Do the simple math: The Sky averages 73 points per game; the Mystics average 70.
Washington’s defensive rating is No. 3 in the league. Chicago is tenths behind at No. 4. Oh, right, simple math... the Sky give up 75.7 points per game; the Mystics give up 73.4.
Barring an outlier performance — especially hard to fathom sans Delle Donne — those numbers simply do not add up to a game total north of 150 points, let alone 153.5.
Prediction: Under 153.5 (-110 at PointsBet)
Best bet
Chicago is a title contender, through and through. Has it played like one yet? No, not so much.
But give Copper and Parker time to again coalesce. Then the truth will reveal itself.
As long as books do not treat the Sky like a title contender, there is an opportunity to cash in. It should beat the Mystics by more than two buckets, which is all that's needed this evening.
Pick: Sky -5.5 (-118 at FanDuel)
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