The Chicago Sky (14-5) and Phoenix Mercury (9-12) will square off for the second time this season as Chicago looks to protect its home court at Wintrust Arena, bringing a four-game winning streak into this afternoon's game.
The Mercury, winners of three straight, will need to continue playing solid basketball should they find success against one of the toughest teams in the WNBA.
In addition to this being the second matchup between the two teams, this is also a rematch of last year's WNBA finals — which is enough to bring out the best in each team. Their previous matchup in May ended in a 73-70 victory for Chicago — will the Mercury find better success this time around?
Get our thoughts with our Mercury vs. Sky WNBA betting picks and predictions for Saturday, July 2.
Mercury vs Sky odds
Odds via bet365. Compare WNBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Mercury vs Sky predictions
Predictions made on 7/2/2022 at 12:37 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Mercury vs Sky info
• Location: Wintrust Arena, Chicago, IL
• Date: Saturday, July 2, 2022
• Tip-off: 1:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN App
Mercury vs Sky betting preview
Key injuries
Mercury: Brittney Griner C (Out), Kia Nurse G (Out).
Sky: No injuries to report.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 5-1 in the Mercury's last 6 Saturday games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Mercury vs. Sky.
Mercury vs Sky picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
Chicago is the league's cream of the crop, currently holding the No. 1 spot in ESPN's power rankings. It has a deep roster with a lot of veteran experience and knows how to win basketball games.
The efficiency on the offensive side of the ball has been remarkable, as the Sky are the No. 1 team in the league in field goal percentage, 3-point percentage, free-throw percentage, and assists.
In their most recent outing against Connecticut (also one of the WNBA's elite), Chicago overmatched them in a 91-83 victory. The difference between that matchup and most nights is the play of future Hall-of-Fame forward Candace Parker. Since entering the league, she has remained one of the true difference-makers in the sport and is averaging 13.3 points, 8.6 rebounds, and 4.8 assists per game on the season.
Parker isn't the only star on the hardwood today either. Phoenix also has two well-known stars in Diana Taurasi and Skylar Diggins-Smith. The dynamic backcourt duo leads the team in scoring and assists and will be tasked with penetrating one of the league's best defensive teams, as the Sky own a 98.9 defensive rating.
For the season, both teams have a similar record against the spread. Mercury's 10-10-1 is slightly better than Chicago's 9-10 mark. While the offenses of each team are similar in firepower, Chicago's defense is far more advanced than that of Phoenix.
This one will be competitive, but the Sky have only won two games this year by double digits.
Prediction: Phoenix +9.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
Over/Under analysis
The Sky and Mercury both know how to score. Each team is Top 4 in points per game, with Phoenix scoring 31.4 ppg off threes, making it one of the more dangerous teams from the arc.
The last matchup between these two teams was a low-scoring contest that saw both teams combine for just 143 points. Tina Charles, who is no longer with the team, scored 25 points in that contest and was unstoppable. The ouster of Charles should open up a significant number of opportunities for the Sky in the paint, as Charles is also a great defender — She made it difficult for Chicago to get anything close to the basket in the last matchup.
Parker had one of her lowest-scoring outputs of the season in the previous matchup, scoring five points in 25 minutes. Expect that to change as Parker enters this game off a 25-point, 11-rebound, and seven-assist performance.
As the season grows, both teams appear to be clicking. The Sky have scored over 85 points in six of their last seven games, including a 104-point performance against Las Vegas.
Plus: In June, both teams are in the Top 3 in scoring.
Prediction: Over 169.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Best bet
Chicago has cemented itself as a title favorite after defeating the Sun and Aces this month. It can win games against top competition — and while facing adversity.
On the other hand, Phoenix has had a more difficult time against top-tier competition. It was handled relatively easily by the Aces twice this season and came up short in a close battle with Connecticut. The Mercury did defeat the consistently solid Mystics by nine points in June, only to follow up against them two days later — and lose by 18 points.
The Sky are the better team and have displayed that consistently throughout the season. In Chicago’s last two defeats, it lost by a total of four points. Look for the Sky to add another win today.
Pick: Chicago Moneyline (-550 at FanDuel)
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