The WNBA Commissioner’s Cup has more juice than the broad public may realize. A $500,000 prize for the winning roster will have a significant impact in a league that still underpays its players.
Keep that in mind when looking at any games with Commissioner’s Cup stakes, like this evening’s meeting between the Phoenix Mercury and the Las Vegas Aces. Point differential matters in the Cup, so Phoenix has reason to run up the score against shorthanded Las Vegas.
My Mercury vs. Aces predictions and WNBA picks trust the favorite to win by multiple buckets. Tip comes at 6 ET on Sunday, June 15.
Mercury vs Aces predictions
My Mercury vs Aces best bet: Mercury -4.5 (-108 at DraftKings)
There is a chance we see the Phoenix Mercury at full strength tonight for the first time all season. Kahleah Copper is considered probable to play, sidelined thus far this season by a knee worry. Even without Copper, Phoenix should look better than recently, thanks to Alyssa Thomas’ return.
The best triple-double threat in the WNBA missed two weeks before returning on Wednesday against Dallas. She handed out 10 assists while scoring 11 points to lead the way to a 13-point win.
Combining Thomas with Satou Sabally and Copper was Phoenix’s idea to compete with the likes of the Lynx and the Liberty. Although we've not yet seen it come to fruition, the concept remains valid.
Using it to further Las Vegas’ slide would be only fitting. The Aces are 5-4 right now, not to mention 3-6 against the spread this season — and three of their five wins have come against three of the worst teams in the WNBA. These are not the same Las Vegas Aces you came to know in their recent dynasty. This team has fallen.
Phoenix is on the precipice of establishing itself as the No. 3 team in the WNBA. These two are ships passing in the desert night, to some extent.
Without A’ja Wilson, the Aces look even worse. Yes, they beat the Wings on Friday, but they trailed by six entering the fourth quarter. That win was more about Dallas’ collapse than anything promising from Las Vegas.
Wilson remains a Top-3 player in the WNBA. As the Aces’ roster has gotten worse, Wilson has become that much more necessary. Losing her while facing an improving Mercury team is a recipe for a blowout in the Commissioner’s Cup.
Mercury vs Aces same-game parlay (SGP)
Mercury -4.5
Alyssa Thomas 8+ assists
Satou Sabally Over 19.5 points
The Thomas-Sabally connection will produce now that it's back on the court. Do not doubt it. Thomas helped set up Sabally’s 20 points on Wednesday, and that was in Thomas’ first game back in two weeks.
Sabally is the scoring in this offense, while Thomas is the everything else. Rely on the two of them. Phoenix does.
Mercury vs Aces odds
Mercury vs Aces live odds
Mercury vs Aces opening odds
- Spread: Phoenix -4.5 | Las Vegas +4.5
- Moneyline: Phoenix -198 | Las Vegas +!64
- Over/Under: Over 164.5 | Under 164.5
Mercury vs Aces trend
Las Vegas is 1-3 ATS at home this season, including 0-2 in the last week. Find more WNBA betting trends for Mercury vs. Aces.
How to watch Mercury vs Aces
| Location | Michelob Ultra Arena, Las Vegas, NV |
| Date | Sunday, 6-15-2025 |
| Tip-off | 6:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | AZ Family Sports, Vegas 34 |
Mercury vs Aces latest injuries
Mercury: Kahleah Copper (Probable), Kalani Brown (Out), Megan McConnel (Out).
Aces: A’ja Wilson (Out), Megan Gustafson (Out), Cheyenne Parker-Tyus (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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