After a comfortable victory in Game 1, life has been quite troublesome for the Minnesota Lynx. They dropped Game 2 in heartbreaking fashion after squandering a 20-point lead, and they surrendered a four-point lead in Game 3 to fall behind 2-1 to the Phoenix Mercury in the semifinals.
My Lynx vs. Mercury predictions and WNBA picks expect a Mercury win behind strong play from veterans Satou Sabally and Alyssa Thomas.
Lynx vs Mercury predictions
My Lynx vs Mercury best bet: Mercury -4.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Momentum has clearly swung in favor of the home team after two straight victories, and the Phoenix Mercury are the favorite for the first time in this series. The Mercury battled back from fourth-quarter deficits in back-to-back contests and should be riding high heading into Sunday’s closeout contest.
The Minnesota Lynx may be without Napheesa Collier, but at the very least, she’ll be at less than 100% after sustaining an injury in the final seconds of Friday’s loss. Minnesota will be missing its head coach, Cheryl Reeve, as she was slapped with a suspension for her conduct at the end of that loss.
Phoenix is 4-4 ATS when facing Minnesota this season, and the home team has covered in all eight head-to-head matchups. A win here will stamp the Mercury’s ticket to the Finals, but a loss will send them back to Minnesota for a winner-take-all Game 5. That’s a situation they’d surely like to avoid.
I’ll bet on the home team to take care of business and close this series out.
Lynx vs Mercury same-game parlay (SGP)
Mercury -4.5
Satou Sabally Over 22.5 points+rebounds
Alyssa Thomas triple-double
Sabally had another stellar performance in Game 3, going for 24 points and nine boards, yet her combo line has moved up slightly from 21.5 to 22.5. She’s averaged 22.6 points+rebounds this season, including a 27.2 average in five matchups with Minnesota. In those five games, she’s hit the Over four times, including both matchups at PHX Arena.
Thomas finished with eight triple-doubles during the regular season, and five of them came at home. In the playoffs, she’s posted one triple-double in six games and finished just three counting stats shy of that mark in three more. Thomas is the WNBA’s all-time leader in postseason triple-doubles with five, and three of them have come since 2023. With a third trip to the Finals on the line, expect the veteran to shine in front of the home crowd.
Lynx vs Mercury odds
Lynx vs Mercury live odds
Lynx vs Mercury opening odds
- Spread: Minnesota +4.5 (-110) | Phoenix -4.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Minnesota +164 | Phoenix -205
- Over/Under: Over 155.5 (-110) | Under 155.5 (-110)
Lynx vs Mercury trend
The home team has covered the spread in all eight head-to-head matchups between the Lynx and Mercury this season. Find more WNBA betting trends.
How to watch Lynx vs Mercury
| Location | PHX Arena, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date | Sunday, September 28, 2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Lynx vs Mercury latest injuries
Lynx: Napheesa Collier (Questionable), DiJonai Carrington (Out).
Mercury: None to report.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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