Las Vegas Aces vs Dallas Wings Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Wings Don't Have a Prayer

The Las Vegas Aces and the Dallas Wings will complete the second half of a home-and-home series when they meet up at College Park Center on Friday night.

The Aces (16-1) won their ninth straight game on Wednesday with an 89-82 victory. However, the Wings (8-9) made Las Vegas work for the victory, as they held a nine-point lead at the half and were still ahead heading into the fourth quarter.

Dallas has shown it can give Las Vegas trouble, and now it will get a second shot at the WNBA’s top team at home. We’ll break down the matchup in our free WNBA picks and predictions for Aces vs. Wings on July 7.

Aces vs Wings best odds

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Aces vs Wings picks and predictions

The Las Vegas Aces have been the dominant force in the WNBA this year. This is largely a carryover from 2022, when the Aces won the WNBA Championship after finishing the regular season as the top seed in the league. Their raw record will be even better this year, as they’ve only dropped a single game on the season.

Las Vegas is currently on nine-game winning streak. During that span, the Aces have won seven games by double figures, showing just how far ahead of the competition they really are. Las Vegas has a massive +15.1 point differential on the season, 8.5 points better than the second-place New York Liberty.

On the other hand, Dallas has been downright average. The Wings are in a three-way tie for the final three playoff positions, and have a mediocre +0.8 point differential on the season. While they played well to stay in the game with the Aces on Wednesday, the Wings have still lost six of their last nine overall.

So what happened on Wednesday? For one, the Aces were playing without guard Kelsey Plum, who missed the game with an illness. It’s unclear whether Plum will play on Friday night, as she’s still listed as questionable. I’ll assume that Plum will be out again, though there’s upside on Las Vegas if she’s available to play.

Dallas also got an outstanding performance from Natasha Howard, who put up 32 points on 13-for-23 shooting on the night. That marked a season-high for Howard, who is averaging 17.5 points and 8.0 rebounds per game for the Wings this year.

That’s an especially shocking performance against the Aces, who typically dominate their opposition in the paint. A’ja Wilson and Candace Parker are both excellent post defenders, and its hard to imagine they won’t be more prepared to clamp down on Howard in Friday’s rematch.

With or without Plum, the Aces are the deepest team in the WNBA, the most talented team in the league, and balanced in a way that few opponents can even hope to deal with. Dallas is not one of those teams, and we can’t expect Howard to put the Wings on her back again on Friday, especially with the Aces wanting to avoid the slow start they suffered through on Wednesday.

Despite the wide gap between these teams, Wednesday’s result and Plum’s uncertain status have pushed this line into single digits. That’s way too little in this matchup, where the Aces should be able to get back to their normal, dominant ways. I’m taking Las Vegas and laying the points, even on the road.

My best bet: Aces -8.5 (-110 at Caesars)

Aces vs Wings spread and Over/Under analysis

Las Vegas opened tonight’s game as a 10-point favorite. That number has come down as the public backs the Wings, and the consensus spread is now Aces -9.5. However, you can find 8.5-point lines if you want to bet on Las Vegas, without any added vig.

While Vegas has been by far the best team in the WNBA, sportsbooks have largely caught up, and the Aces are just 9-8 against the spread. Meanwhile, Dallas has put up a 7-9-1 ATS record this season.

I outlined why Las Vegas should run away with this game in my best bet analysis above. Honestly, this is just a continuation of what the Aces have done all year long. To think Dallas will cover here, you’ll either be putting a lot of stock on the closer-than-expected score on Wednesday, or think the Plum injury will significantly hurt Las Vegas. I’m doing neither, so I’m backing the Aces.

The total tonight opened at 174 points. The Over/Under has moved up, and you can now find lines anywhere from 174.5 to 175.5 points, depending on your preferred sportsbook. The odds are highly variable on these numbers as well. I found -110 on the Over at 174.5, as well as -114 on the Under at 175.5.

Las Vegas has generally hit the number this year, with the Over going 10-7 in Aces games. The Under is 10-7 when Dallas plays in 2023.

The Aces aren’t just the best team in the WNBA, they’re also the highest-scoring team in the league. The average total in an Aces game is 171.7, while Dallas comes in at a 167.6 average. These are also two of the three fastest-paced teams in the WNBA, which should push the score a bit higher. 

Still, with the total tonight above either team’s season-long average, and the first game only ending up at 171, I’m leaning towards the Under for Friday’s game. 

Aces vs Wings betting trend to know

The Aces are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games coming off an ATS loss. Find more WNBA betting trends for Aces vs. Wings.

Aces vs Wings game info

Aces vs Wings key injuries

Aces: Kelsey Plum (G – Questionable), Riquna Williams (G – Out)
Wings: Diamond DeShields (G – Out), Lou Lopez-Senechal (G – Out)
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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